Trump's 'Board of Peace' Faces Uphill Battle as Gaza Reconstruction Plans Collide with Continued Violence and Palestinian Exclusion

6 predicted events · 6 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The Current Situation

As President Donald Trump prepares to convene the inaugural meeting of his 'Board of Peace' on February 19, 2026, at the renamed Donald J. Trump U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington, a stark contradiction defines the Gaza landscape. While the administration announces $5 billion in reconstruction pledges and thousands of international personnel for stabilization efforts (Article 1), Israeli attacks continue to kill Palestinians in what is supposed to be a ceasefire period. According to Article 2, at least 11 Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes across Gaza on February 15 alone, prompting Hamas to condemn these as 'new massacres' and a 'criminal escalation.' The reconstruction challenge is monumental. The UN, World Bank, and European Union estimate that fully rebuilding Gaza will require $70 billion (Article 5), making the announced $5 billion pledge—while substantial—only a first step covering roughly 7% of anticipated costs. Indonesia has provided the first concrete commitment to the proposed international stabilization force, with up to 8,000 troops expected to be ready by late June (Articles 1 and 5). Critically, as Article 6 highlights, the Board of Peace's top leadership includes no Palestinian representatives, raising fundamental questions about whether Gaza's residents will have any meaningful voice in determining their own future.

Key Trends and Warning Signals

**Ceasefire Violations Continue Unabated**: The October 10, 2025 ceasefire appears increasingly nominal. Israeli forces continue targeting civilians in refugee camps and residential areas, including the killing of a Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander (Article 2). This pattern suggests the 'ceasefire' exists more on paper than in practice. **Limited International Military Commitment**: Despite Trump's claims about thousands of personnel being committed, only Indonesia has made a concrete pledge. The fact that 'few nations have expressed interest' in the UN-authorized international force (Article 5) signals significant reluctance from potential contributors, likely due to concerns about becoming entangled in an unresolved conflict. **Palestinian Exclusion from Decision-Making**: The absence of Palestinian representation in the Board of Peace's leadership structure represents a fundamental legitimacy problem that will likely haunt reconstruction efforts from the outset. **Funding Gap Remains Massive**: With $5 billion pledged against a $70 billion need, and no clear indication of where the remaining 93% of funding will originate, the reconstruction timeline appears far longer than any optimistic projections.

Predictions: What Happens Next

**The February 19 Meeting Will Produce Limited Concrete Results** While Thursday's inaugural Board of Peace meeting will likely generate significant media attention and additional pledge announcements, expect the gathering to produce more rhetoric than actionable plans. The fundamental security situation on the ground remains unresolved, with no mechanism to enforce the ceasefire or guarantee worker safety. Without these prerequisites, reconstruction cannot meaningfully begin beyond symbolic pilot projects. The meeting will likely see additional countries making financial pledges to demonstrate goodwill, but few concrete troop commitments beyond Indonesia. European and Arab nations will face domestic political pressure that makes military deployment deeply unpopular, particularly given ongoing ceasefire violations. **Reconstruction Efforts Will Stall Within 60-90 Days** Initial reconstruction efforts will face immediate obstacles: continued security incidents, disputes over governance and oversight, Hamas's refusal to disarm without political concessions, and the absence of Palestinian buy-in for plans developed without their input. Within two to three months, the gap between announced ambitions and ground realities will become undeniable. Construction companies and international organizations will prove reluctant to deploy personnel and equipment into an active conflict zone. Insurance costs alone will make many projects economically unfeasible. **Palestinian Resistance to Externally-Imposed Plans Will Intensify** As Article 6 emphasizes, the exclusion of Palestinians from leadership roles in determining their territory's future will generate increasing resistance. Expect growing protests—both in Gaza and internationally—against the Board of Peace's legitimacy. Palestinian civil society organizations will demand representation, while Hamas and other factions will use the exclusion as evidence that the process serves external interests rather than Palestinian needs. **The International Force Will Remain Understaffed and Ineffective** Even if Indonesia deploys its pledged 8,000 troops by late June, this force will prove insufficient for Gaza's security needs. The territory requires an estimated 20,000-30,000 personnel for effective stabilization and policing. Without additional commitments from major military powers, the force will lack the capacity to disarm Hamas, prevent Israeli incursions, or provide comprehensive security—the three core requirements for successful reconstruction. **Funding Pledges Will Not Translate to Disbursements** Historically, international reconstruction pledges significantly exceed actual disbursements. Given the ongoing violence, governance disputes, and lack of clear implementation mechanisms, expect most of the announced $5 billion to remain uncommitted or tied up in bureaucratic processes for the foreseeable future. Six months from now, actual reconstruction spending will likely represent less than 10% of pledged amounts.

The Path Forward

For the Board of Peace to achieve meaningful results, several preconditions must be met: a genuinely enforced ceasefire with consequences for violations, Palestinian representation in all decision-making bodies, substantially larger international force commitments, and resolution of fundamental political questions about Gaza's governance and relationship with Israel. Without these elements, Trump's Board of Peace risks becoming another well-intentioned but ultimately ineffective international initiative, leaving Gaza's 2.3 million residents trapped between rubble and rhetoric. The coming weeks will test whether international actors can move beyond photo opportunities and pledge announcements to address these hard realities. Early indicators suggest the gap between ambition and implementation will prove difficult to bridge.