Trump's Board of Peace Faces Reality Check as Gaza Reconstruction Plans Hit Critical Obstacles

6 predicted events · 20 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The Current Situation

President Donald Trump convened the inaugural meeting of his Board of Peace on February 19, 2026, in Washington D.C., bringing together representatives from 47 nations in what he called "one of the most important and consequential things" he will be involved in. The meeting yielded pledges of $7 billion from nine member countries—Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, and Kuwait—toward Gaza reconstruction, with the U.S. committing an additional $10 billion to the board itself (Articles 3, 7, 19). While Trump praised these commitments as investments in regional stability, the harsh reality quickly emerged: the $7 billion represents merely 10% of the estimated $70 billion needed to rebuild Gaza after more than two years of devastating conflict (Articles 7, 12, 20). Five countries have agreed to deploy troops as part of an international stabilization force, though details on timing and implementation remain conspicuously absent (Articles 3, 11).

Critical Obstacles Emerging

Three major obstacles threaten to derail Trump's ambitious Gaza reconstruction vision: ### 1. The Hamas Disarmament Stalemate The most significant barrier is the unresolved question of Hamas disarmament. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made Israel's position unequivocal: "there will be no reconstruction of Gaza before the demilitarisation of Gaza" (Article 7). Yet Trump's optimistic claim that it "looks like" Hamas will disarm contradicts ground reports. According to Article 7, "there are few signs of the Palestinian group disarming. Gazans say it is extending its control over the Strip." This fundamental disconnect between Israeli preconditions, Palestinian reality, and Trump's public statements creates a recipe for stalemate that could persist for months. ### 2. The Diplomacy Vacuum Perhaps most telling is the assessment from Michael Waheed Hanna, US Program Director at Crisis Group, who stated bluntly that "the diplomacy to get to the reconstruction and governance phase of the ceasefire just isn't taking place at the moment" (Article 1). This suggests that while Trump has successfully orchestrated a high-profile pledge event, the essential groundwork for actual implementation remains undone. ### 3. Western Allied Skepticism Notably absent from the Board of Peace are "some key US Western allies concerned about the scope of the initiative" (Article 5). Multiple articles reference fears that the board may be intended to replace or rival the United Nations (Articles 17, 18), creating diplomatic tensions that could complicate multilateral coordination efforts.

Key Predictions

### Near-Term: Funding Implementation Delays (1-3 Months) The $7 billion in pledges will face significant implementation delays. Trump provided "no detail on when the pledges would be implemented" (Articles 3, 11), and the $10 billion U.S. commitment lacks clarity on both its source and purpose. As Article 11 notes, this "sizable pledge would need to be authorized by Congress"—a process that could take months and faces uncertain prospects, especially with midterm elections approaching (Article 17). ### Medium-Term: Stalemate Over Hamas Disarmament (3-6 Months) The Hamas disarmament issue will create a prolonged impasse. Neither Hamas shows signs of voluntary disarmament, nor does Israel appear willing to compromise on its precondition. This deadlock will effectively freeze reconstruction efforts, with funds pledged but not deployed. The five countries that agreed to send troops for a stabilization force will likely delay deployments indefinitely, citing security concerns and lack of clarity on mission parameters. ### Medium-Term: Humanitarian Crisis Deepens (Ongoing) With reconstruction frozen and "the flow of humanitarian aid to the war-battered populace of Gaza" remaining a major question (Article 5), the humanitarian situation will continue deteriorating. The gap between the $7 billion pledged and $70 billion needed ensures that even if some funds are released, they will prove woefully inadequate for Gaza's massive reconstruction needs. ### Longer-Term: Board of Peace Expands Beyond Gaza (6-12 Months) Faced with Gaza stalemate, Trump will likely pivot to expanding the Board of Peace's mandate to "tackle other conflicts worldwide" (Article 19), attempting to demonstrate the board's relevance despite Gaza failures. This mission creep, however, may further alienate Western allies already wary of the initiative's relationship to the UN.

The Iran Wildcard

A significant complicating factor is Trump's simultaneous escalation with Iran. The meeting occurred "amid a broader push by Trump to build a reputation as a peacemaker" while "the United States threatens war against Iran and has embarked on a massive military build-up in the region" (Article 5). Any military action against Iran would immediately overshadow Gaza reconstruction efforts and could trigger regional instability that makes Gaza stabilization impossible.

Conclusion

The Board of Peace's inaugural meeting succeeded as political theater but revealed fundamental gaps between Trump's ambitious vision and ground realities. The convergence of insufficient funding, unresolved Hamas disarmament questions, absent diplomacy, and Western allied skepticism suggests that Gaza reconstruction will remain largely aspirational throughout 2026. Unless breakthrough diplomatic efforts address the Hamas disarmament impasse—efforts that analysts confirm are "not taking place at the moment"—the pledged billions will remain frozen, and Gaza's reconstruction will be delayed indefinitely.