Trump's Board of Peace Faces Critical Implementation Tests as Hamas Disarmament Remains Elusive

6 predicted events · 20 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The Current Situation

Donald Trump's newly established Board of Peace held its inaugural meeting on February 19, 2026, in Washington D.C., bringing together representatives from nearly 50 countries to address Gaza's reconstruction following the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The meeting produced significant financial pledges: nine countries committed $7 billion toward Gaza relief, while the United States pledged an additional $10 billion, though the source of American funding remains unspecified and would likely require Congressional approval (Articles 5, 8, 12). Five nations—Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Albania—have committed troops to a 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force (ISF), with Kazakhstan also pledging medical units and observers (Articles 1, 5). Additional partnerships have emerged, including a FIFA collaboration to build football infrastructure worth $75 million (Article 3). Qatar alone pledged $1 billion to the mission (Article 19). Yet beneath these impressive announcements lies a fundamental challenge: the pledged $17 billion represents less than 25% of the estimated $70 billion needed to rebuild Gaza (Articles 13, 16, 20). More critically, the entire plan hinges on Hamas disarmament—a condition that shows few signs of materializing.

Key Trends and Warning Signs

**The Disarmament Impasse**: While Trump claimed it "looks like" Hamas will disarm (Article 20), reality tells a different story. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that "there will be no reconstruction of Gaza before the demilitarisation of Gaza" (Article 20). Palestinian sources indicate Hamas is not disarming but rather "extending its control over the Strip" (Article 20). Analyst Michael Waheed Hanna noted that the necessary diplomacy "just isn't taking place at the moment" (Article 14). **Ongoing Violence**: Trump's declaration that "the war in Gaza is over" apart from "little flames" (Article 7) contradicts reports of continuing Israeli airstrikes that killed 11 people on Sunday before the meeting (Article 7). The Palestinian UN envoy bluntly stated, "There is no peace anywhere, anytime" (Article 7). **Western Allies' Absence**: Notably, key Western allies have refused to join the Board of Peace, concerned it may be intended to replace or undermine the UN rather than complement it (Article 20). This absence raises questions about international legitimacy and coordination. **Expanding Mission Creep**: Trump's vision for the board has "quickly expanded" beyond Gaza to address Middle East stability broadly and potentially "bringing lasting peace to not just the Middle East but the whole world" (Articles 11, 16). This mission expansion, combined with Trump's hints about possible military action against Iran "over the next 10 days" (Article 8), suggests the board may become entangled in broader regional conflicts.

Predictions

**Implementation Delays (High Confidence, 1-3 Months)**: The $7 billion in pledges will face significant delays in actual disbursement. The fundamental precondition—Hamas disarmament—remains unmet, creating a circular problem: reconstruction cannot begin without disarmament, but Hamas has little incentive to disarm without seeing tangible benefits for Gaza's population. The "significant questions" about disarmament, troop withdrawal, and humanitarian aid flow (Article 18) will continue delaying concrete action. **Congressional Funding Battle (High Confidence, Within 2 Months)**: Trump's $10 billion U.S. pledge will encounter serious resistance in Congress. Multiple articles note this funding requires Congressional authorization (Articles 5, 16, 18), but Trump provided no details on sourcing or specific allocation. Given the divided political landscape and concerns about accountability, expect protracted debates and likely a reduced final amount or strict conditions on disbursement. **Troop Deployment Complications (Medium Confidence, 2-4 Months)**: While five countries committed troops to the ISF, actual deployment will face significant hurdles. The security situation remains volatile, rules of engagement need clarification, and the relationship between the ISF and Israeli forces requires negotiation. Egypt and Jordan's commitment to "train police" (Article 5) suggests a phased approach, with police training likely preceding full troop deployment. Expect announcements about smaller initial deployments or delayed timelines. **Continued Hamas Entrenchment (High Confidence, Ongoing)**: Without addressing Gaza's governance vacuum and Hamas's political legitimacy concerns, the group will continue consolidating control rather than disarming. The absence of Palestinian Authority involvement in Board of Peace discussions and reconstruction planning creates a dangerous void. Hamas will likely use its control over aid distribution to strengthen its position. **Iran Crisis Overshadowing Gaza (Medium-High Confidence, Within 3 Weeks)**: Trump's threats of military action against Iran (Article 9) and reports that military officials have told him forces are "ready for potential strikes as soon as this weekend" (Article 9) suggest the administration's attention may quickly shift from Gaza reconstruction to Iran confrontation. This would divert diplomatic energy and potentially destabilize the fragile Gaza ceasefire. **Credibility Test and Stalling (Medium Confidence, 3-6 Months)**: The Board of Peace faces a critical credibility test in coming months. The combination of unmet preconditions, funding delays, Western abstention, and mission creep will likely lead to stalled progress and growing skepticism. The ambitious projects—like FIFA's 50 mini-pitches, 20,000-seat stadium, and infrastructure rebuilding (Article 3)—will remain on paper while fundamental security and governance issues persist.

Conclusion

The Board of Peace's inaugural meeting generated impressive headlines and substantial pledges, but the path from announcements to implementation appears treacherous. The fundamental disconnect between Trump's declaration that "the war is over" and the reality of continuing violence, Hamas entrenchment, and unmet disarmament conditions suggests the initiative will face severe tests in the coming months. Without addressing these core issues through sustained diplomacy—which analysts note isn't currently happening—the Board risks becoming another well-intentioned but ineffective international body, unable to deliver on its ambitious promises for Gaza's reconstruction and regional peace.