Nepean By-Election Set to Test Liberal Resilience and Labor's Strategic Calculus Ahead of November Poll

5 predicted events · 7 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

# Nepean By-Election: A Crucial Test Before Victoria's General Election

The Current Situation

Victoria's political landscape is bracing for a significant test as the safe Liberal seat of Nepean prepares for a by-election on May 2, 2026, following the resignation of former deputy Liberal leader and tennis star Sam Groth. This electoral contest comes at a critical juncture—just six months before the state's general election scheduled for November 28, creating an unusual scenario where voters will be asked to cast ballots twice within a single year. According to Articles 1-7, the seat is considered safe Liberal territory on Melbourne's Mornington Peninsula, but the timing and circumstances of this by-election introduce several variables that could produce unexpected outcomes. Monash University politics expert Zareh Ghazarian has characterized this as an "important indicator" of the opposition's standing, particularly given that Liberals currently enjoy more positive voter sentiment compared to Labor in opinion polls.

Key Trends and Signals

### Labor's Strategic Dilemma The most significant signal emerging from these reports is Labor's apparent hesitation about contesting the seat. Multiple articles (1, 2, 5, 6, 7) reference the possibility that Labor may skip the by-election altogether, citing precedent from the Prahran by-election where the party chose to preserve resources for the general campaign. This strategic consideration reveals several underlying realities: 1. **Resource constraints**: With a general election merely six months away, Labor faces difficult decisions about where to deploy campaign funds and personnel 2. **Risk management**: A poor showing close to the general election "could destabilise the party," as noted in Articles 5 and 6 3. **Expectations management**: By not fielding a candidate, Labor avoids the risk of a demoralizing loss that could create negative momentum ### The Minor Party Factor All articles reference "a surging minor player" that faces a test in this election, though the specific party remains unnamed in these reports. This language suggests that independents or third parties have been gaining traction in Victorian politics, reflecting a broader national trend toward voter dissatisfaction with major parties. The characterization of the by-election as a potential "kick up the backside" for both major parties indicates growing voter willingness to explore alternatives. ### Liberal Party Vulnerabilities While Nepean is described as a safe Liberal seat, the articles indicate this is far from a guaranteed win. The loss of Sam Groth—described as a "once-rising star" and former deputy leader—represents a significant departure of political talent. Dr. Ghazarian's warning that "a loss or decline in the party's vote would raise questions about its policy and personnel settings" suggests vulnerability despite favorable polling.

Predictions: What Happens Next

### 1. Labor Will Not Contest the Seat **Confidence: High** Labor will likely follow the Prahran precedent and decline to field a candidate in Nepean. The strategic calculus is too compelling: the seat is considered safe Liberal territory, the general election is only six months away, and the risk of a demoralizing loss outweighs any potential upside. By sitting out, Labor can frame the by-election as irrelevant to the November contest while preserving campaign resources and avoiding negative headlines. This decision will likely be announced within the next 2-3 weeks as the campaign period begins, allowing Labor to control the narrative about why it's the "sensible" choice rather than appearing to withdraw under pressure. ### 2. A Minor Party or Independent Will Achieve a Strong Second-Place Finish **Confidence: Medium-High** With Labor potentially absent and voter sentiment favoring alternatives to major parties, the "surging minor player" referenced across all articles will likely capitalize on the opportunity. Whether this is the Greens, an independent candidate, or another party, they will position themselves as the viable alternative to the Liberals and could secure 25-35% of the vote. This result would generate significant media attention and establish momentum heading into the November general election, potentially making Nepean competitive in that contest. ### 3. Liberal Victory, But With a Reduced Margin **Confidence: Medium-High** The Liberals will retain the seat but likely experience a swing against them of 5-10 percentage points compared to previous results. This outcome will be framed differently depending on perspective: Liberal strategists will emphasize the retention of a safe seat, while opponents will highlight the reduced margin as evidence of voter dissatisfaction. The reduced margin will reflect several factors: the loss of Groth's personal vote, general anti-incumbency sentiment (even though Liberals are in opposition at state level), and effective campaigning by minor parties or independents. ### 4. The Result Will Intensify Scrutiny of Liberal Policy Settings **Confidence: Medium** Regardless of the final margin, the by-election will prompt internal Liberal Party discussions about candidate selection, policy positioning, and campaign strategy ahead of November. As Dr. Ghazarian noted in the articles, any decline in vote share will "raise questions about policy and personnel settings." Expect internal party tensions to surface in media reports following the May 2 vote, particularly if the margin is closer than expected. ### 5. The By-Election Will Have Minimal Impact on November's General Election **Confidence: Medium-Low** Despite the attention and analysis this by-election will receive, its actual impact on the November general election will likely be limited. Victorian voters have demonstrated capacity to separate by-election protest votes from general election decisions. The six-month gap provides time for the political narrative to evolve, and different factors—including national issues, leadership debates, and economic conditions—will dominate the general election campaign. However, if the by-election produces a genuine upset (such as a Liberal loss or a very strong minor party showing), it could reshape the entire November campaign by emboldening challengers and affecting campaign resource allocation.

Conclusion

The Nepean by-election represents a fascinating political laboratory where strategic calculations, voter sentiment, and minor party momentum will collide. While the Liberals are heavily favored to retain the seat, the manner of their victory—and Labor's decision whether to contest at all—will provide important signals about Victoria's political trajectory heading into the crucial November general election. The real story may not be who wins, but rather the size of the protest vote and what it reveals about voter appetite for alternatives to the major parties.