Nepean By-Election: A Three-Way Battle Looms as Minor Parties Eye Upset in Safe Liberal Seat

5 predicted events · 7 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

Current Situation

Victoria's political landscape is set for a significant test as the seat of Nepean prepares for a by-election on May 2, 2026, following the resignation of former Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. The departure of this once-rising political star—and former tennis professional—has created an unusual scenario where voters in the Mornington Peninsula electorate will cast ballots twice in a single year, with the general election scheduled for November 28. As reported across multiple sources (Articles 1-7), this by-election represents far more than a routine replacement vote. It arrives at a critical juncture when the Liberal opposition enjoys favorable polling compared to the incumbent Labor government, making the contest a crucial barometer of political sentiment ahead of the November showdown.

Key Trends and Signals

Several significant patterns emerge from the current political dynamics: **1. Labor's Strategic Hesitation** According to Articles 1-7, Labor has yet to announce a candidate and may follow precedent by skipping the contest entirely, as they did during the Prahran by-election. This calculated absence would allow the party to conserve resources for the general election campaign. However, this strategic withdrawal could also signal Labor's recognition that competing in this safe Liberal seat would be an inefficient allocation of campaign resources. **2. The "Kick Up the Backside" Sentiment** Monash University politics expert Zareh Ghazarian's analysis, cited throughout the coverage, highlights that voters could use this opportunity to send a message to both major parties. This reflects broader voter dissatisfaction with traditional politics and suggests an opening for alternative candidates. **3. The Minor Party Factor** Repeated references to a "surging minor player" facing a test (Articles 1-7) indicate that independents or minor parties see an opportunity to capitalize on voter frustration, potentially replicating the success of teal independents in similar affluent, coastal constituencies. **4. High Stakes for Liberal Party Credibility** Despite Nepean being a safe Liberal seat, Dr. Ghazarian's warning is clear: "A strong win in Nepean would consolidate that sense, but a loss or decline in the party's vote would raise questions about its policy and personnel settings." This suggests internal Liberal Party concerns about maintaining momentum despite favorable polling.

Predictions

### Prediction 1: Labor Will Not Contest the Seat **Likelihood: High** Labor will almost certainly decline to field a candidate in Nepean, officially citing resource conservation but tacitly acknowledging the seat is unwinnable. This decision will be announced within the next two weeks as nomination deadlines approach. The party's previous behavior in Prahran establishes this precedent, and with a general election just six months after the by-election, every campaign dollar matters. Labor strategists will calculate that any money spent on a doomed Nepean campaign would be better invested in marginal seats during November. ### Prediction 2: A Credible Independent or Minor Party Candidate Will Emerge **Likelihood: High** The repeated references to a "surging minor player" across all articles suggest journalists already have intelligence about a potential challenger. Given the Mornington Peninsula's demographic profile—affluent, educated, coastal—it mirrors the "teal independent" territory that has proven successful in federal contests. Expect an announcement of a well-credentialed independent candidate, possibly focused on climate action, integrity, or local issues, within the next 3-4 weeks. ### Prediction 3: The Liberal Vote Will Decline But Hold the Seat **Likelihood: Medium-High** The Liberal Party will retain Nepean but with a reduced margin of 8-15 percentage points compared to the previous election. Several factors support this prediction: Groth's personal popularity as a former athlete likely inflated previous results; the absence of a Labor candidate will allow protest votes to flow to minor parties and independents; and the unusual circumstance of voting twice in one year may depress turnout among rusted-on Liberal supporters while energizing those seeking change. ### Prediction 4: The Result Will Trigger Liberal Party Internal Debate **Likelihood: Medium** Even if the Liberals retain the seat, a swing against them will spark internal party discussions about candidate quality, policy positioning, and campaign effectiveness. As Dr. Ghazarian noted, anything less than a strong win "would raise questions about its policy and personnel settings." This internal debate will likely leak to media within days of the May 2 result, particularly if the swing exceeds 10%. ### Prediction 5: The By-Election Will Establish Narratives for November **Likelihood: High** Regardless of the outcome, political analysts and media will use the Nepean result to construct narratives about the November general election. A strong Liberal performance will be framed as confirming their polling advantage; a weak performance will be portrayed as exposing hidden vulnerabilities. A strong independent showing will fuel speculation about minor party momentum threatening both major parties. These narratives will dominate Victorian political coverage throughout May and June.

Conclusion

The Nepean by-election represents a pivotal moment in Victorian politics, arriving at the intersection of voter frustration with major parties, the rise of independents, and the approach of a general election. While the Liberals should retain the seat, the margin of victory and the performance of alternative candidates will provide crucial intelligence about voter sentiment and set the tone for the November campaign. Political operatives from all parties will be watching closely, knowing that by-elections often serve as canaries in the electoral coal mine—and in 2026, the air feels particularly uncertain.