Nepean By-Election: A Litmus Test for Victoria's Political Landscape Ahead of November Showdown

5 predicted events · 7 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The Current Situation

Victoria's political landscape is set for an unusual double electoral test in 2026, following the resignation of Sam Groth, former Liberal deputy leader and tennis professional, from the state parliament. His departure has triggered a by-election in the safe Liberal seat of Nepean on Melbourne's Mornington Peninsula, scheduled for May 2, 2026—just six months before the state's general election on November 28. According to Articles 1-7, this creates an unprecedented scenario where Nepean voters will be called to the polls twice within a single year, a situation that political analysts suggest could serve as a critical barometer for both major parties' electoral prospects.

Key Trends and Signals

### Liberal Party Vulnerability in a Safe Seat Despite Nepean being characterized as a "safe Liberal seat" across all reporting, the circumstances surrounding this by-election present unique challenges for the opposition. As Monash University politics expert Zareh Ghazarian notes in the articles, "A strong win in Nepean would consolidate that sense, but a loss or decline in the party's vote would raise questions about its policy and personnel settings." The Liberal Party currently enjoys favorable polling compared to Labor, making this by-election both an opportunity and a potential pitfall. A strong performance would validate their momentum heading into November; any weakness could trigger internal party turmoil at the worst possible time. ### Labor's Strategic Dilemma A significant signal emerges from Labor's response—or lack thereof. Articles 1-7 all note that Labor "have yet to announce a candidate but could skip it altogether as the party did during the Prahran by-election to preserve resources for the November campaign." This strategic consideration reveals Labor's calculation that contesting—and potentially losing—a by-election in a safe opposition seat six months before a general election may carry more risk than reward. However, the articles also warn that if Labor does contest and performs poorly, it "could destabilise the party" so close to the general election, creating a damaging feedback loop of negative media coverage and internal recriminations. ### The Minor Party Factor All articles reference a "test also looms for a surging minor player," suggesting that independent candidates or minor parties may view this as an opportunity to demonstrate electoral viability. This aligns with broader trends in Australian politics where voters increasingly look beyond the major parties, particularly in by-elections where protest votes carry less risk.

Predictions: What Happens Next

### 1. Labor Will Not Contest or Will Run a Minimal Campaign The most likely scenario is that Labor will either skip the by-election entirely or field a token candidate with minimal campaign investment. The precedent of the Prahran by-election, mentioned across all articles, provides a clear template for this strategic retreat. With the general election only six months away, preserving financial resources and avoiding a potentially demoralizing loss in hostile territory makes tactical sense. This decision will likely be framed as "respecting taxpayer money" and "focusing on the issues that matter" rather than an admission of weakness, but the underlying calculation is purely strategic. ### 2. A Competitive Independent or Minor Party Candidate Will Emerge The specific mention of a "surging minor player" suggests political analysts expect a credible third-party challenge. By-elections historically attract protest votes and provide launching pads for independents who can focus resources on a single electorate. The fact that voters will return to polls in November anyway reduces the perceived risk of "wasting" a vote on an alternative candidate. Given current Australian political trends toward teal independents and climate-focused candidates, particularly in affluent coastal areas like the Mornington Peninsula, such a candidate could achieve a surprisingly strong result. ### 3. Liberal Margin Will Narrow Despite Victory While the Liberal Party will almost certainly retain Nepean, the margin of victory will be the story. A reduced majority—even in victory—would be interpreted by media and political insiders as a warning sign about the party's momentum heading into November. The loss of Groth, described as a "once-rising star," creates a gap in local recognition and popularity that will be difficult to immediately replace. The dual election scenario also creates voter fatigue and potential resentment about being called to polls twice in one year, which may depress turnout or encourage protest voting. ### 4. Results Will Dominate Pre-Election Narrative Regardless of the outcome, the May 2 by-election will establish narrative frames that persist through to November. If the Liberal margin decreases significantly, Labor will claim momentum despite not seriously contesting. If an independent performs strongly, both major parties will face questions about their relevance. The result will be analyzed, over-analyzed, and weaponized in the general election campaign.

Conclusion

The Nepean by-election represents far more than a routine replacement of a departed MP. It serves as a crucial stress test for Victoria's political dynamics at a pivotal moment. For the Liberal Party, it's an opportunity to demonstrate electoral strength—but also a risk of exposing weakness. For Labor, the strategic calculus favors avoiding engagement. For minor parties and independents, it's a golden opportunity to build momentum and credibility. The May 2 result will reverberate through the remaining six months until the general election, potentially reshaping campaign strategies and electoral expectations. As Dr. Ghazarian suggests, voters may indeed use this opportunity to give both major parties "a kick up the backside"—and that message will echo loudly through Melbourne's political corridors.