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India's Pivot to Israel Signals Lasting Realignment in Middle East Geopolitics—at Palestine's Expense
India-Israel Relations
High

India's Pivot to Israel Signals Lasting Realignment in Middle East Geopolitics—at Palestine's Expense

7 predicted events · 6 sources

within 2 months
within 2 weeks
about 2 hours ago
Trump's FDA Politicization Opens New Era of Pharma Influence and Regulatory Uncertainty
FDA Political Interference
High

Trump's FDA Politicization Opens New Era of Pharma Influence and Regulatory Uncertainty

6 predicted events · 6 sources

within 3 months
within 12 months
about 2 hours ago
Germany's China Balancing Act: Why Deeper Economic Engagement Is Inevitable Despite Growing Risks
Germany-China Relations
High

Germany's China Balancing Act: Why Deeper Economic Engagement Is Inevitable Despite Growing Risks

6 predicted events · 16 sources

within 3 months
within 12 months
about 2 hours ago
India-Israel Alliance Set to Deepen Despite Domestic Israeli Tensions, With Geopolitical Ramifications for Regional Balance
India-Israel Relations
High

India-Israel Alliance Set to Deepen Despite Domestic Israeli Tensions, With Geopolitical Ramifications for Regional Balance

5 predicted events · 7 sources

within 3-6 months
within 1-2 months
about 2 hours ago
Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Reckoning as Kalshi's Insider Trading Cases Signal Industry-Wide Crackdown
Prediction Market Regulation
High

Prediction Markets Face Regulatory Reckoning as Kalshi's Insider Trading Cases Signal Industry-Wide Crackdown

6 predicted events · 5 sources

within 3-6 months
within 1-3 months
about 2 hours ago
Galaxy S26 Launch Will Test Consumer Appetite for AI-Heavy, Price-Increased Smartphones
Samsung Galaxy S26
High

Galaxy S26 Launch Will Test Consumer Appetite for AI-Heavy, Price-Increased Smartphones

6 predicted events · 15 sources

within 2 weeks (by March 11, 2026 ship date)
within 90 days (May-June 2026)
about 2 hours ago

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Daily Tech News Digest — Thursday, February 26, 2026
Daily
Tech

Daily Tech News Digest — Thursday, February 26, 2026

Anthropic modified its Responsible Scaling Policy the same day reports emerged of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pressur...

Thu, Feb 26
40 articles · 7 sources
Daily Tech News Digest — Monday, February 23, 2026
Daily
Tech

Daily Tech News Digest — Monday, February 23, 2026

Researchers achieved a major additive manufacturing breakthrough by printing a functional motor in just hours, bringing ...

Mon, Feb 23
40 articles · 6 sources
Scorecard: European Epstein Investigation Prediction Encounters UK Reality Check
0:23
Scorecard
Mixed Results

Scorecard: European Epstein Investigation Prediction Encounters UK Reality Check

Accuracy Score45%

6 events reviewed · Prediction was 8 days old

Reviewed 3 days ago
Scorecard: Bangladesh Cabinet Formation Confirmed, But Too Soon to Judge Broader Political Predictions
0:27
Scorecard
Too Early to Tell

Scorecard: Bangladesh Cabinet Formation Confirmed, But Too Soon to Judge Broader Political Predictions

Accuracy Score75%

7 events reviewed · Prediction was 8 days old

Reviewed 3 days ago
Scorecard: Fed Rate Cut Predictions Clash With Economic Resilience Reality
0:09
Scorecard
Mostly Inaccurate

Scorecard: Fed Rate Cut Predictions Clash With Economic Resilience Reality

Accuracy Score25%

5 events reviewed · Prediction was 8 days old

Reviewed 3 days ago
Scorecard: AI Accurately Forecasts Nuclear Talks Timeline, But Core Predictions Remain Unverified
1:14
Scorecard
Too Early to Tell

Scorecard: AI Accurately Forecasts Nuclear Talks Timeline, But Core Predictions Remain Unverified

Accuracy Score65%

6 events reviewed · Prediction was 8 days old

Reviewed 3 days ago
Scorecard: Prediction Captures Escalatory Trajectory but Events Still Unfolding
1:14
Scorecard
Too Early to Tell

Scorecard: Prediction Captures Escalatory Trajectory but Events Still Unfolding

Accuracy Score65%

6 events reviewed · Prediction was 8 days old

Reviewed 3 days ago
Scorecard: Prediction Misses the Mark - Wrong Incident, Wrong Location, Wrong Context
0:59
Scorecard
Mostly Inaccurate

Scorecard: Prediction Misses the Mark - Wrong Incident, Wrong Location, Wrong Context

Accuracy Score15%

6 events reviewed · Prediction was 8 days old

Reviewed 3 days ago
The Deadline Has Arrived , And AI Models Are Giving Their Predictions For When The U . S . Will Attack Iran
theeconomiccollapseblog.com
about 7 hours ago

The Deadline Has Arrived , And AI Models Are Giving Their Predictions For When The U . S . Will Attack Iran

Published: 20260226T013000Z

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Kalshi Bans MrBeast Video Editor and Political Candidate Over Insider Trading
Gizmodo
about 12 hours ago

Kalshi Bans MrBeast Video Editor and Political Candidate Over Insider Trading

This is the first known action that the prediction market has taken against users for alleged insider trading.

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An accountant won a big jackpot on Kalshi by betting against DOGE
TechCrunch
about 13 hours ago

An accountant won a big jackpot on Kalshi by betting against DOGE

A tax accountant saw Elon Musk fans bidding up a Kalshi prediction market and saw a sure bet to make easy money.

Kalshi fined a MrBeast editor for insider trading
Engadget
about 13 hours ago

Kalshi fined a MrBeast editor for insider trading

Kalshi, one of several online prediction markets that have exploded in popularity in the last few years, has suspended one of YouTube MrBeast's video editors for insider trading, NPR reports. Besides being suspended from the platform for two years, Kalshi says the editor will also be required to pay a financial penalty that's five times his initial trade size. The editor, Artem Kaptur, traded in markets related to YouTube and specifically, MrBeast. Kalshi says his transactions were initially flagged because of his "near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds, which were statistically anomalous." Because trades are public on Kalshi, multiple users also flagged the trades as suspicious. Kalshi learned Kaptur was an employee of MrBeast during its investigation and determined he "likely had access to material non-public information connected to his trading." Perhaps unsurprisingly, trading with insider information violates Kalshi's rules. Kalshi says that it reported the insider trading to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and plans to donate the over $20,000 Kaptur has been fined to "a non-profit that provides consumer education on derivatives markets." In a statement provided to NPR, Beast Industries, MrBeast's production company, said it has a zero-tolerance policy for insider trading. "We have a longstanding policy in place against employees using proprietary company information in order to safeguard the highest standards and ethics throughout our organization," Beast Industries said.  Separately, Kalshi has also suspended and fined a politician who was running to be Governor of California. "In May, our Surveillance Department saw an online video by a candidate for Governor of California that appeared to show him trading on his own candidacy," Kalshi says. "We immediately froze his account and opened an investigation. The candidate was initially cooperative and acknowledged that this violated the exchange rules. As a candidate in a race, you

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Kalshi says it fined a MrBeast editor and a politician for insider trading
The Verge
about 14 hours ago

Kalshi says it fined a MrBeast editor and a politician for insider trading

Kalshi, the prediction betting market, has disclosed its first fines for insider trading, as reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal. In addition to handing down a $20,000 fine to a MrBeast editor, Kalshi also charged a California gubernatorial candidate over $2,000 after a video on X "appeared to show him trading on his own candidacy." In a notice on Wednesday, Kalshi claims MrBeast editor Artem Kaptur traded about $4,000 on YouTube streaming markets, violating its insider trading rules. "Our surveillance systems flagged his near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds, which were statistically anomalous," Bobby DeNault, legal … Read the full story at The Verge.

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Kalshi Suspended a California Politician and a YouTuber for Insider Trading
Wired
about 16 hours ago

Kalshi Suspended a California Politician and a YouTuber for Insider Trading

Leading prediction market Kalshi has revealed details of two recent insider trading cases it flagged to authorities, giving a rare look at how the platform enforces its policies.

Kalshi reveals insider trading case against editor for MrBeast
NPR News
about 16 hours ago

Kalshi reveals insider trading case against editor for MrBeast

With prediction markets booming, so have concerns about insider trading. Now, Kalshi has disclosed its first public actions against accounts suspected of trading on confidential information.

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‘Save this country’: Robert De Niro's passionate speech prior to Trump's State of the Union address
Euronews
about 23 hours ago

‘Save this country’: Robert De Niro's passionate speech prior to Trump's State of the Union address

The Oscar winning actor shared his prediction that Donald Trump “will never leave” office and that it is up to Americans to “get rid of him”.

Dark Sky’s Creators Are Back With a New Weather App
Gizmodo
2 days ago

Dark Sky’s Creators Are Back With a New Weather App

The new Acme Weather app includes alternate forecasts predictions.

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New Frontier for ETFs: Space Economy, Prediction Markets
Bloomberg
3 days ago

New Frontier for ETFs: Space Economy, Prediction Markets

On "Bloomberg ETF IQ", Cinthia Murphy, investment strategist at TMX VettaFi, joins Scarlet Fu and Eric Balchunas to discuss "UFO" ETFs, the space economy and prediction markets. (Source: Bloomberg)

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'DUSA' Surpasses $1B In Assets, ETF Managers Tapping in Prediction Markets | ETF IQ 2/23/2026
Bloomberg
3 days ago

'DUSA' Surpasses $1B In Assets, ETF Managers Tapping in Prediction Markets | ETF IQ 2/23/2026

"Bloomberg ETF IQ" focuses on the opportunities, risks and current trends tied to the trillions of dollars in the global exchange traded funds industry. Today's guests: Davis Select US Equity Portfolio Manager Chris Davis, YMX VettaFi Investment Strategist Cinthia Murphy, Proshares Global Investment Strategist Simeon Hyman, and JPMorgan Asset Management Global Head of ETFs Travis Spence. (Source: Bloomberg)

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The creators of Dark Sky have a new weather app that shares multiple predictions
The Verge
3 days ago

The creators of Dark Sky have a new weather app that shares multiple predictions

Acme Weather is currently only available for iOS. | Image: Acme Weather Corporation After selling their popular weather app to Apple in March 2020, where some of its core features were incorporated into Apple Weather, the creators of Dark Sky have left Apple to create yet another alternative. Their new app, called Acme Weather, embraces the fact that forecasts will never be entirely accurate by providing both a main prediction of the day's conditions and several alternate predictions. Acme Weather is currently only available for iOS. An Android version is planned, but there's no release timeline yet. You can try it out for two weeks for free, but a $25 annual subscription is needed if you like what you see and want to keep … Read the full story at The Verge.

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The creators of Dark Sky have a new weather app
Engadget
3 days ago

The creators of Dark Sky have a new weather app

The team behind the beloved Dark Sky weather app has announced a new iPhone app called Acme Weather. The release comes after Apple's 2020 acquisition of Dark Sky, which it ultimately shut down in 2022 after integrating much of its tech into the native iOS Weather app. Acme Weather is primarily designed to address the uncertainty inherent in most forecasts, as different models yield disparate results and no two weather apps seem to report the same thing. Acme’s answer to this issue is “Alternate Predictions,” which shows users a range of possible outcomes alongside the app's core forecast line throughout the day. If the lines are arranged together tightly, it means the app has high confidence in the forecast at that time. When those lines start to diverge, the app is signaling lower confidence while showing users alternate predictions for that time of day. The app also supports community reporting, seeking to do for weather what Waymo did for traffic. Users can share real-time conditions in their area using icons or emojis, helping increase accuracy when conditions are changing quickly. Like most weather apps, there is also a map component with layers for radar, lightning, rain and snow totals, wind and more. Acme leverages notifications to help make sure you don't miss important changes to the forecast or weather alerts. Grossman says they are comprehensive and should help you avoid getting caught in the rain unawares. Notifications also include community reports, government weather alerts and even experimental tools from "Acme Labs" like rainbow and beautiful sunset alerts. Acme offers a two-week free trial, then costs $25 a year. The iOS version is available now and an Android is forthcoming. This article originally appeared on Engadget at https://www.engadget.com/apps/the-creators-of-dark-sky-have-a-new-weather-app-155426063.html?src=rss

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Generative AI analyzes medical data faster than human research teams
Science Daily
5 days ago

Generative AI analyzes medical data faster than human research teams

Researchers tested whether generative AI could handle complex medical datasets as well as human experts. In some cases, the AI matched or outperformed teams that had spent months building prediction models. By generating usable analytical code from precise prompts, the systems dramatically reduced the time needed to process health data. The findings hint at a future where AI helps scientists move faster from data to discovery.

Physical function metrics improve mortality prediction in elderly heart failure patients
news-medical.net
5 days ago

Physical function metrics improve mortality prediction in elderly heart failure patients

Published: 20260221T023000Z

Tradeweb Strikes Deal to Show Kalshi Data
Bloomberg
5 days ago

Tradeweb Strikes Deal to Show Kalshi Data

Tradeweb Markets Inc. signed a deal to bring Kalshi Inc.'s prediction markets to more institutional investors, and will start showing real-time prices for Kalshi's event-based contracts. Katherine Doherty has been reporting on this story for Bloomberg News and spoke with Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Real Yield." (Source: Bloomberg)

Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi
The Verge
6 days ago

Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi

Prediction markets will let you bet on just about anything, from how many tweets Elon Musk will post this week to the next president of the United States, with predictions sometimes showing shockingly (or suspiciously) spot-on accuracy. Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Copland has even claimed that prediction markets are “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.” However, these platforms blur the lines — in terms of both function and regulation — between gambling and stock trading. As Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal said on The Vergecast, “All of the lines between trading, speculating, [and] gambling are just being completely torn apart.” There are also ethical concerns surfacing around prediction markets, like whether it’s acceptable to be able to place a bet on virtually everything, along with concerns about insider trading. For instance, a newly-created Polymarket account made over $400,000 in January betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prop bet Substack isn’t just known for “platforming and monetizing Nazis” now. It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets Nevada sues to block Kalshi’s prediction betting market Polymarket ran a popup ‘free grocery store’ in NYC because it has ‘market’ in its name. Someone nailed their halftime show bets on Polymarket. Giannis Antetokounmpo claims “We all on Kalshi now.” Polymarket and Kalshi play Nino Brown. Portugal orders Polymarket to shut down. Blood for stonks Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture Kalshi and Polymarket keep partnering with fake newsbreaker accounts on X. Everything is gambling now Election night at Kalshi HQ Here’s the $2,000 fully AI-generated ad that aired during the NBA Finals Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev is betting not Polymarket quietly raised more money before the FBI raided the CEO’s apartment. The FBI reportedly seized the phone of Polym

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Prop bet
The Verge
6 days ago

Prop bet

Pondering my orb. | Image: Cath Virginia / The Verge, Getty Images Substack has updated its partnership with betting platform Polymarket, "introducing native tools that make it easier to share, discuss, and debate prediction market data directly on Substack." Additionally, Polymarket will effectively pay "a cohort of creators," including Matt Yglesias, to use its data though the newsletter platform's pilot sponsorships program. This is just the latest foray of prediction markets into media. Last week, Dow Jones agreed to incorporate Polymarket's betting data into its "content," including The Wall Street Journal. A month before that, CNN incorporated Kalshi's betting odds. In December, CNBC agreed to infuse … Read the full story at The Verge.

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The War Over Prediction Markets Is Just Getting Started
Wired
6 days ago

The War Over Prediction Markets Is Just Getting Started

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming, and so is a fight among regulators, lawmakers, and advocates over their legality.

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Federal Reserve Says Prediction Markets Are a Valuable Tool for Policymakers
Gizmodo
7 days ago

Federal Reserve Says Prediction Markets Are a Valuable Tool for Policymakers

If you're not a Federal Reserve economist, you should probably still be wary of Kalshi.

Epstein fallout intensifies with former Prince Andrew's arrest
The Hill
7 days ago

Epstein fallout intensifies with former Prince Andrew's arrest

12:30 Report is The Hill's midday newsletter. Subscribe here. Happy Thursday! It’s remarkable how warm 43 degrees and cloudy can feel after the frigid winter we’ve had. Think the groundhog wants to have a change of heart over this year’s prediction?   In today's issue: Lawmakers react to ex-Prince Andrew’s arrest Fallout over leaders’ Epstein...

Substack, Polymarket announce partnership: 'Journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets'
The Hill
7 days ago

Substack, Polymarket announce partnership: 'Journalism is better when it’s backed by live markets'

Publishing platform Substack and prediction market Polymarket announced a new partnership on Wednesday. The new partnership will allow Substack users to integrate Polymarket's prediction data directly into their content. Substack said one in five of Substack’s top 250 highest-revenue publications started using Polymarket's data to produce content focusing on current events like election timelines, shifting...

It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets
The Verge
7 days ago

It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets

The Polymarket website hosts trading on whether Houthi militias would strike Israeli territory arranged on a laptop computer in Forest Hills neighborhood in the Queens borough of New York, US, on Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. | Bloomberg via Getty Images. Hello and welcome to Regulator, a newsletter for Verge subscribers about the love-hate (but mostly hate) relationship between Silicon Valley and Washington. I hope everyone got to celebrate George Washington's birthday in their preferred manner: skiing, staycationing, subscribing to The Verge if you haven't already, etc. Prediction: this is going to be a mess Political alliances are rarely permanent, so it's somewhat predictable that the MAGA-tech bro alliance seems to have fallen apart in the span of a single year. Which side the administration would actually choose, though, was more difficult to foresee. Last winter, it appeared that … Read the full story at The Verge.

Today Aquarius Horoscope 19 February 2026 Aaj ka Kumbh Rashifal daily future predictions कुंभ राशिफल 19 फरवरी 2026 : कुंभ राशि वाले संपत्ति का बंटवारा कर सकते हैं , लवलाइफ में पॉजिटिव चेंज पाएंगे , पढ़ें राशिफल , एस्ट्रोलॉजी न्यूज़
livehindustan.com
7 days ago

Today Aquarius Horoscope 19 February 2026 Aaj ka Kumbh Rashifal daily future predictions कुंभ राशिफल 19 फरवरी 2026 : कुंभ राशि वाले संपत्ति का बंटवारा कर सकते हैं , लवलाइफ में पॉजिटिव चेंज पाएंगे , पढ़ें राशिफल , एस्ट्रोलॉजी न्यूज़

Published: 20260219T003000Z