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The War Over Prediction Markets Is Just Getting Started
Wired
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Published 2 days ago

The War Over Prediction Markets Is Just Getting Started

Wired · Feb 20, 2026 · Collected from RSS

Summary

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are booming, and so is a fight among regulators, lawmakers, and advocates over their legality.


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The Verge2 days ago
Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi

Prediction markets will let you bet on just about anything, from how many tweets Elon Musk will post this week to the next president of the United States, with predictions sometimes showing shockingly (or suspiciously) spot-on accuracy. Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Copland has even claimed that prediction markets are “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now.” However, these platforms blur the lines — in terms of both function and regulation — between gambling and stock trading. As Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal said on The Vergecast, “All of the lines between trading, speculating, [and] gambling are just being completely torn apart.” There are also ethical concerns surfacing around prediction markets, like whether it’s acceptable to be able to place a bet on virtually everything, along with concerns about insider trading. For instance, a newly-created Polymarket account made over $400,000 in January betting on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Prop bet Substack isn’t just known for “platforming and monetizing Nazis” now. It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets Nevada sues to block Kalshi’s prediction betting market Polymarket ran a popup ‘free grocery store’ in NYC because it has ‘market’ in its name. Someone nailed their halftime show bets on Polymarket. Giannis Antetokounmpo claims “We all on Kalshi now.” Polymarket and Kalshi play Nino Brown. Portugal orders Polymarket to shut down. Blood for stonks Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture Kalshi and Polymarket keep partnering with fake newsbreaker accounts on X. Everything is gambling now Election night at Kalshi HQ Here’s the $2,000 fully AI-generated ad that aired during the NBA Finals Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev is betting not Polymarket quietly raised more money before the FBI raided the CEO’s apartment. The FBI reportedly seized the phone of Polym

The Verge2 days ago
Prop bet

Pondering my orb. | Image: Cath Virginia / The Verge, Getty Images Substack has updated its partnership with betting platform Polymarket, "introducing native tools that make it easier to share, discuss, and debate prediction market data directly on Substack." Additionally, Polymarket will effectively pay "a cohort of creators," including Matt Yglesias, to use its data though the newsletter platform's pilot sponsorships program. This is just the latest foray of prediction markets into media. Last week, Dow Jones agreed to incorporate Polymarket's betting data into its "content," including The Wall Street Journal. A month before that, CNN incorporated Kalshi's betting odds. In December, CNBC agreed to infuse … Read the full story at The Verge.

Engadget4 days ago
Nevada sues Kalshi for operating a sports gambling market without a license

Nevada is taking action against the rapidly growing Wild West of prediction markets. The state's gambling regulators and attorney general sued Kalshi on Tuesday. They accuse the company of bypassing Nevada law by operating a sports gambling market without proper licenses. In addition, they say Kalshi provides services to individuals under 21, which violates state law. The lawsuit follows a federal appeals court’s rejection of Kalshi's request to prevent the state from pursuing legal action. And it comes a day after the Trump administration claimed that only the federal government has the right to enforce the industry. Prediction markets, which allow users to bet on events such as sports, political outcomes and wars, have exploded in popularity. Business Insider reports that Kalshi did 27 times as much business during this year's Super Bowl as last year's. Some of that growth has been at the expense of regulated gambling; Nevada's gambling operations did less business during this year's game. "Kalshi has continued to dramatically expand its business, rather than attempting to maintain any kind of status quo," Nevada regulators wrote in a letter this month. Kalshi and rival Polymarket insist that their businesses are "event contracts" and should be regulated as financial investments rather than gambling. The Trump administration, rife with conflicts of interest in this area, agrees. The Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed an amicus brief on Tuesday, claiming that it alone has the authority to enforce the prediction market. "The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency's exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products," CFTC Chair Michael Selig wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Donald Trump Jr. (Photo by Olivier Touron / AFP via Getty Images) OLIVIER TOURON via Getty Images Not coincidentally, prediction markets are a growi

The Verge4 days ago
Nevada sues to block Kalshi’s prediction betting market

Nevada is suing to block the prediction market platform Kalshi from allowing residents to place bets on the outcomes of events, including elections and sports games, as reported earlier by Business Insider. The lawsuit adds to a growing number of legal battles across the country, claiming that Kalshi is harming the state's gambling market by operating without a proper license and by allowing users under 21 to use the platform. The state of Nevada filed the lawsuit just hours after a federal appeals court denied Kalshi's request to block Nevada from taking action against the company. As prediction betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket … Read the full story at The Verge.

Bloomberg5 days ago
CFTC Faces More Pushback From States Over Prediction Markets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is facing more opposition from states over the agency’s bid to be the sole regulator of prediction markets.

Wired9 days ago
Senators Urge Top Regulator to Stay Out of Prediction Market Lawsuits

As prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi battle regulators in court, Senate Democrats are urging the CFTC to avoid weighing in, escalating a broader fight over the burgeoning industry.