Global Everything Rally Pushes US Futures HIgher As AI Disruption Fears Fade

zerohedge.com · Feb 18, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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US equity futures trade near session highs, after rising much of the overnight session amid muted volumes. Yesterday, US stocks recovered their early losses starting just after the EU close and that momentum has carried through to global markets today with what appears to be re-grossing in EU and continued momentum in the Japan trade. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are 0.4% while Nasdaq 100 contracts rise 0.5% with broad premarket gains across software names and tech heavyweights. Mag7 names are mostly higher (NVDA +1.8%, AMZN +1.4%) and most sectors are higher pointing to what JPMorgan calls an "Everything Rally" today as the market tries to find a bottom and was less reactive to AI headlines yesterday than we have seen most of the year. Europe’s Stoxx 600 hit a record high following a slate of positive earnings. Bond yields are +1-2bp with a USD that has caught a bid. In commodities, all 3 complexes are higher with precious metals leading; brent crude is headed for the highest level in a week. Overnight we learned that Japan would $36bn (of $550bn commitment) into US infra (natgas, crude export, and synthetic diamond production). Today’s macro data focus is on Cap / Durable Goods, Housing Starts, regional Fed indicators, TIC data, and the latest Fed Minutes.In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all higher: Nvidia (NVDA) rises 1.9% after Meta Platforms Inc. agreed to deploy “millions” of its processors over the next few years, tightening an already close relationship between two of the biggest companies in the artificial intelligence industry (Amazon +1.3%, Microsoft +0.4%, Alphabet +0.2%, Apple +0.06%, Meta unch, Tesla +0.3%)Applied Digital (APLD) falls 8% after Nvidia reported exiting its stake in a 13F filing.Axcelis Technologies (ACLS) declines 13% after the semiconductor manufacturing company gave a first-quarter forecast that is weaker than expected.Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) climbs 6% after the electronic design automation software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as positive.Caesars Entertainment (CZR) rises 5% after the casino operator reported same store adj. Ebitda for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.Global-e Online (GLBE) rises 18% after the application software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a positive forecast.Mister Car Wash (MCW) climbs 17% after agreeing to be taken private by Leonard Green & Partners at $7 per share in cash.New York Times Co. (NYT) rises 3% after Berkshire Hathaway built a stake in the publisher.Palo Alto Networks (PANW) tumbles 7% after the security software company gave a forecast for adjusted earnings that was weaker than expected for both the third quarter and the full year.Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI) climbs 7% after the shipping and mailing software firm posted fourth-quarter earnings that topped expectations and management provided a strong 2026 profit forecast.Rush Street (RSI) rises 18% after the gaming company reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.Sandisk (SNDK) falls over 3% as Western Digital is selling a stake in the the flash-memory unit that it spun off.SimilarWeb (SMWB) falls 23% after the web services company’s fourth-quarter results missed expectations and it gave an outlook that analysts described as disappointing.Vita Coco (COCO) rises 6% after the beverage firm provided a strong forecast for 2026 net sales.After months of gains fueled by optimism over AI, equity markets have turned cautious amid a clash between disruption fears and doubts that heavy spending will yield meaningful returns. The setbacks in US stocks have prompted investors to look elsewhere, with European and Asian benchmarks far outpacing the S&P 500 this year.“It’s hard to know where the floor on valuation is going to be,” Sophie Huynh, portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “So I think there’s going to be some temptation to buy on dips.”Apple has decoupled from the Nasdaq amid the recent AI angst: It’s seen as a safer bet because it isn’t participating in the capex bonanza and doesn’t have a major business line that’s threatened by AI. Rotation is also cropping up among regions — with renewed interest in European equities — and in the latest batch of 13F filings. Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Amazon by more than 75% in the fourth quarter, while also building a stake in the New York Times, in Warren Buffett’s last new bet as chief executive officer of the conglomerate.Rotation is also cropping up among regions — with renewed interest in European equities — and in the latest batch of 13F filings. Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Amazon by more than 75% in the fourth quarter, while also building a stake in the New York Times, in Warren Buffett’s last new bet as chief executive officer of the conglomerate.Digging into earnings estimates suggests that AI’s impact on corporate growth is seen as limited outside of Big Tech. Earnings growth estimates for the Mag 7 in 2026 have gone up to 18% from 14% in the aftermath of last year’s tariff-related selloff. For the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500, expectations have fallen to 11% from 12.5%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. In other AI news, Meta agreed to deploy “millions” of Nvidia processors over the next few years, tightening an already close relationship between the pair. ION Group’s founder said investors are punishing the wrong companies after more than $2 trillion was wiped off the value of software firms in recent weeks. Other interesting observations in 13F filings include Third Point increasing its weighting in healthcare while reducing exposure to consumer staples. Pershing Square cut its position in Alphabet and boosted its stake in Amazon, while Meta represented its biggest new buy in the fourth quarter.In central banks, some Fed officials have begun suggesting that productivity growth from AI could mean higher rates, a view that would put them at odds with the Trump administration. The FT reported that Christine Lagarde plans to leave the ECB before her eight-year term ends in October 2027. An ECB spokesperson said that Lagarde “is totally focused on her mission and has not taken any decision regarding the end of her term.”Analog Devices, Moody’s and Global Payments are among companies expected to report results before the market opens. Moody’s outlook for 2026 will be in focus following S&P Global’s worse-than-expected profit forecast earlier this month. Earnings from Carvana and Molson Coors follow later in the day.In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.9%, rising for a third day and on track for a record close. Miners lead gains after Glencore reported solid full-year earnings, while chemical stocks lag as a disappointing report from IMCD weighs on the sector. BAE Systems shares jump after the defense firm predicted continued solid sales and earnings growth for the year. Bank and energy also outperform.Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:BAE shares gain as much as 6.3% after full-year results analysts called solid and where cash flow stood out.Puig shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most since October, as the Spanish company’s full-year revenue beat estimates, with analysts pointing to a strong performance in its main fragrances and fashion business.Mediobanca shares rise as much as 9%, the most since last April, after Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s board approved a plan to pursue delisting the investment bank. Paschi shares advance as much as 4.8%.Glencore shares rally as much as 3.5% in London after the miner reported adjusted Ebitda for the 2025 full year that beat the average analyst estimate.Amrize shares climb as much as 6.1%, with the building materials company hitting the highest on record since its June 2025 IPO, on strong cash returns and positive guidance.IMCD shares slump as much as 13%, their biggest drop in almost seven months, after the specialty chemicals maker missed expectations across all metrics.Bayer shares slide as much as 7.9%, reversing Tuesday’s gain following the German conglomerate’s class-action settlement plan in relation to the Roundup weedkiller litigation.Genmab shares fall as much as 6.9% after the biotech firm forecast full-year revenue which analysts say implies a downside to expectations.Carrefour shares drop as much as 5% after delivering full-year results which are seen as slightly weaker than expected.EssilorLuxottica shares drop as much as 3.3% to the lowest since July after Bloomberg reported that Apple is accelerating development on new wearable devices, including smart glasses.EFG International shares fall as much as 9.4% after an additional legal provision and rising costs “spoilt” the bank’s results by causing earnings to miss expectations.Resurgent optimism about Europe and the benefits of German stimulus is driving investment flows into the region’s equity markets and fueling an outperformance that is expected to last. The positivity is visible in overall positioning, according to the latest Bank of America survey of the region’s fund managers. A net 35% are overweight European equities relative to global markets, up from 9% just three months earlier. “The AI scare trade is creative destruction in the making, and when one doesn’t know how it will unfold, one diversifies,” said Nicolas Domont, fund manager at Optigestion in Paris. “Investors are particularly interested in companies which have predictable order books and revenues, such as in defense.”Asian stocks advanced, led by a rebound in Japanese shares, as many markets around the region remain shut for Lunar New Year holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, snapping a three-day losing streak. Mitsubishi UFJ and Tokyo Electron were among the biggest boosts to the index. Equities also gained in India, Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia. The announcement of Japan’s $36BN inv