Futures Drop As Iran Tensions Rise , Data Deluge Looms

zerohedge.com · Feb 20, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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US equity futures are lower, sliding from session highs around the European open to session low just before 8am E as traders assessed the potential market impact of war with Iran, and awaited a firehose of US economic data including GDP and core PCE. As of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% having traded in the green for much of the overnight session. Pre-market, Mag 7 are mostly red with GOOGL bucking the trend and rising +1.2%. Blue Owl Capital’s shares were set to fall a further 3.5% after its decision to limit withdrawals from a private credit fund. Bond yields have also reversed and are now lower on the session while the USD is flat. Commodities are mixed: base metals are lower while precious metals are rallying, sending gold above $5000 again; Brent crude fell toward $71 a barrel, paring gains since Monday to about 5%. Overnight, a WSJ article rehashed the now familiar story that Trump considers an initial limited strike to force negotiation. Today, key macro focus will be PCE, Flash PMIs and SCOTUS opinion day (markets are waiting for possible decision on IEEPA tariffs).In premarket trading, magnificent Seven stocks are mixed early Friday (Alphabet (GOOGL) +1.2%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.3%, Tesla (TSLA) -0.1%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.02%, Meta (META) -0.3%, Microsoft (MSFT) -0.1%, Apple (AAPL) -0.3%)Akamai Technologies (AKAM) falls 11% after the software company gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is weaker than expected for both the first quarter and the full year.Ardelyx (ARDX) drops 6% after the drugmaker gave sales forecast for its Ibsrela drug in the first quarter that Jefferies views as softer than expectedCopart (CPRT) falls 8% after the online vehicle salvage auction company reported operating income for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.Floor & Decor (FND) climbs 4% after the flooring and tile retailer reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that exceeded the average analyst estimate.Grail (GRAL) tumbles 47% after the early cancer detection test maker said Galleri, its multi-cancer screener, failed to meet its primary endpoint of statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and IV cancer.Harmonic (HLIT) rises 9% after the communications equipment’s book-to-bill is seen as strong and reinforcing its growth potential.Hudbay Minerals (HBM) declines almost 5% after the miner reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate as production fell year-over-year.Newmont (NEM) drops 4% after the world’s biggest gold miner said it expects to produce less bullion this year, due to planned upgrades at some of its managed mines and lower output at two joint ventures with Barrick Mining.Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) climbs 19% as the online marketplace for residential real estate reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.RingCentral (RNG) rises 10% after the software company’s fourth-quarter results beat expectations on key metrics and it gave a positive forecast for both the first quarter and the full year.Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) rises 4% after the restaurant chain said it expects positive comparable restaurant sales growth for the year as it plans to implement a menu price increase in early April.Workiva Inc. (WK) gains 12% after the software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave revenue forecasts for both the first quarter and the full year that are seen as positive.Friday morning brings long-delayed readings of core personal consumption expenditure — a measure of price changes in consumer goods and services that excludes volatile food and energy costs. The data may prove important not only in deciphering the next move in interest rates, but also the outlook for the great rotation trade out of tech names into materials, energy and other cyclicals linked to a stronger economy. Bloomberg Economics expects core inflation to have accelerated into the year end. Prices of services including recreation, accommodation and video streaming are likely to have contributed to a month-on-month increase of 0.32% in the core PCE deflator for December and a tick-up in the annual rate to 2.9% from 2.8%. Wider inflation is set to be stoked by oil near a six-month high as Trump oversees the biggest US military buildup in the Middle East since 2003 and warns Iran that it has 10 to 15 days at most to strike a deal over its nuclear program — or else.Speaking of "or else", the US military is deploying a vast array of forces in the Middle East as President Donald Trump ramps up pressure on Tehran to strike a deal over its nuclear program. While the move in oil seeped into risk assets, traders note that recent geopolitical flare-ups have had only a limited impact on markets.“Geopolitical stories are really notoriously difficult to price,” Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets, told Bloomberg TV. “Right now it’s almost impossible to assign probabilities to any outcome, given how quickly those narratives change.”Elsewhere, as Trump looks to soothe concerns among rich and poor alike ahead of the midterms, he declared victory in the fight over cost-of-living concerns. It signals a new approach from the president that denies problems with his economic agenda while touting stock market gains to insist that his tariff plans have been a success. The White House is ratcheting up pressure on Congress to enact Trump’s proposed ban on investors buying homes, laying out for the first time what sort of investment firms he plans to target, The Wall Street Journal reports.Turning to earnings, Of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, more than 74% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while nearly 21% have missed. No major companies are due to report today, but the earnings season picks up pace again next week, with companies representing a further 13% of the S&P’s market value on deck. European stocks rebound after a halt to their rally in the prior session. Stoxx 600 up by 0.5%, with consumer, construction and chemicals outperforming. Moncler leads luxury stocks to outperform, while the energy and utilities sectors lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: Moncler shares gain as much as 13%, the most since September 2024, after the maker of high-end puffer jackets reported results that Barclays said were significantly ahead of estimates.Air Liquide shares rise as much as 3.9%, trading at a three-month high, after the French industrial-gas producer posted second-half earnings that beat expectations and raised its dividend more than anticipated, according to a Jefferies analyst.Kingspan shares climb as much as 9.4%, touching their highest level since 2024, after the construction firm generated record revenue and said the part of its business that builds infrastructure for data centers has an “extraordinary pipeline.”Unipol shares rise as much as 6.6%, their biggest gain in over 10 months, after the Italian insurer topped expectations in the latest quarter, with Barclays noting a higher dividend, stronger capital returns and better margins.Dis-Chem shares rally as much as 4.6% in Johannesburg, touching its highest intraday level in over a year, after the pharmacy stores chain reported a loyalty program-driven increase in revenue.ALK-Abello shares rise as much as 4.7%, hitting their highest level in over a month, after the pharmaceutical company with a focus on allergies said it will pay its first dividend since 2017 and topped expectations in the final quarter, according to analysts at Jefferies.Siegfried shares fall as much as 6.7%, the most since August, after weaker-than-expected 2026 guidance from the the Swiss pharma firm.Umicore shares decline as much as 7.1% in Brussels, hitting its lowest intraday level since December after the specialty chemicals company reported net income for 2H 2026 that missed the average analyst estimate.Danone shares drop 2.1% after a like-for-like sales beat was offset by a miss in volumes and misses in certain units in China and the US, according to Jefferies.Aston Martin shares slip as much as 4.4% after the British carmaker posted another profit warning.Chemring shares slide as much as 5.5% after the defense firm said it has made a slower start to the year than anticipated.Earlier, Asian stocks fell in the last session of a holiday-thinned trading week, as renewed fears of conflict between the US and Iran weighed on risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dipped as much as 0.4%. Alibaba and Tencent were the biggest drags, with investors rotating into smaller tech names in Hong Kong as the market reopened following the Lunar New Year break. Benchmarks fell more than 1% in Japan and New Zealand. Stocks gained in South Korea and India. Investors turned cautious after US President Donald Trump warned that Iran had 10 to 15 days to come up with a deal over its nuclear program. While equities broadly fell, sectors related to energy and defense gained on the escalating tensions. Mainland China and Taiwan markets will reopen next week. Traders will also be focused on monetary policy decisions from South Korea and Thailand, as well as gross domestic product data from Hong Kong and India. Companies due to report results from the region include HSBC and Baidu, while Nvidia headlines overseas earnings.In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.1% and in a narrow range for the day. Sterling outperforming, yen and the kiwi falling.In rates, treasuries are little changed.Gilt curve flattening after slew of data, including strong retail sales, a record budget surplus and solid PMIs. Euro-area business activity improved thanks to a boost from German factories. Bund yields edging lower,In commodities, oil fluctuates with concerns about US-Iran tensions at the forefront. Brent now down for the session and getting closer to $71/barrel, having jumped the day before. Gold prices highe