Turkey Positions COP31 Climate Summit as Platform for Regional Power Projection

6 predicted events · 7 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

Turkey Prepares to Leverage COP31 Climate Summit for Geopolitical Influence

Turkey is rapidly advancing preparations to host the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, positioning the environmental summit as both a diplomatic achievement and a platform to project regional power. The convergence of climate diplomacy with Turkey's broader foreign policy ambitions suggests the November 2026 conference will transcend traditional environmental negotiations. ### Current Situation: Intensive Preparations Underway According to Articles 2, 3, and 4, Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum has been appointed COP31 President and established a dedicated Presidential Office to coordinate the massive undertaking. Turkey recently concluded a critical two-day preparatory meeting in Istanbul involving the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat, Australian negotiators, and representatives from previous COP hosts Brazil and Azerbaijan. The physical infrastructure is taking shape quickly. Turkey has designated the Antalya EXPO grounds as the venue and begun rapid on-site construction, demonstrating the government's commitment to creating a showcase event (Articles 2, 3). Minister Kurum emphasized that Turkey is building the COP31 process on "three fundamental values," though the specific values remain partially obscured in the reporting. ### Key Signals: Climate Summit as Diplomatic Vehicle The most telling aspect of Turkey's approach is the explicit linkage between climate leadership and geopolitical positioning. Article 3 quotes Minister Kurum declaring that "Turkey is today a rising power in all fields globally" and that under President Erdoğan's leadership, "Turkey has become a voice in diplomacy." This framing reveals that Ankara views COP31 not merely as an environmental conference but as validation of Turkey's claim to regional leadership. Article 7 provides crucial context by highlighting Turkey's recent assertive foreign policy in the Balkans and Horn of Africa, including drone sales to Kosovo and Ethiopia that generated international controversy. The article recounts how President Erdoğan allegedly threatened military action against Serbia over Kosovo tensions and how Turkish military exports have concerned Washington. This pattern of unilateral action in regional conflicts suggests Turkey may use COP31's platform to advance broader diplomatic objectives. The emphasis on civil society engagement (Articles 1, 5, 6) is particularly significant. Minister Kurum stressed that Turkish civil society organizations now possess "strong field presence, high technical capacity, and sensitivity to global issues." This investment in non-governmental channels suggests Turkey is building soft power infrastructure to complement its hard power capabilities. ### Predictions: What Happens Next **1. Turkey Will Use COP31 to Position Itself as Bridge Between Developed and Developing Worlds** Turkey's geographical position straddling Europe and Asia, combined with its membership in various regional organizations, makes it uniquely positioned to mediate between climate finance providers (developed nations) and recipients (Global South). Expect Ankara to propose new frameworks that enhance its intermediary role, potentially including Turkey-administered climate funds for Central Asia, the Caucasus, and the Middle East. The repeated emphasis on "concrete steps" and "concrete targets" (Article 2) suggests Turkey will push for action-oriented outcomes that demonstrate tangible leadership, contrasting with perceived inaction at previous summits. **2. Regional States Will Seek Bilateral Meetings to Address Security Concerns** The massive international gathering will create opportunities for side diplomacy. Given Turkey's recent assertiveness (Article 7), countries like Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, and Arab states will likely request bilateral meetings on the margins of COP31 to address regional tensions. The climate summit framework provides diplomatic cover for engagement that might otherwise be politically difficult. **3. Western Powers Will Attempt to Constrain Turkey's Narrative Control** The United States and European Union, already concerned about Turkish military exports and regional interventions, will work to prevent Turkey from using COP31 as a platform for positions contrary to Western interests. Expect pressure on the UN secretariat to maintain strict procedural controls and for Western nations to amplify their own climate initiatives during the conference to dilute Turkey's spotlight. **4. Turkey Will Showcase Military and Technological Capabilities** Given the pattern of promoting indigenous defense technologies (Article 7's mention of Baykar drones), Turkey will likely use COP31 to highlight domestically-produced green technologies, renewable energy systems, and climate adaptation solutions. This serves dual purposes: demonstrating technological sophistication and creating export opportunities. **5. Intensified Diplomatic Activity Throughout 2026** The preparatory meetings will accelerate significantly. Expect Minister Kurum and possibly President Erdoğan to conduct extensive international travel throughout 2026, visiting key players in climate negotiations. These visits will address climate issues while simultaneously advancing Turkey's bilateral interests. ### The Broader Context Articles 1, 5, and 6 reveal high expectations globally for COP31, with Minister Kurum acknowledging that "the world's expectations from COP31 are very high." This creates both opportunity and risk for Turkey. A successful summit could cement Turkey's status as a consequential middle power capable of convening global consensus. Failure could expose the limits of Turkish diplomatic capacity and damage Ankara's carefully cultivated image as a rising power. The integration of climate policy with Turkey's broader assertion of regional influence represents a sophisticated approach to 21st-century statecraft. However, it also risks politicizing climate negotiations at a moment when scientific consensus demands urgent, coordinated action. How Turkey navigates this tension will largely determine COP31's legacy and Turkey's future role in global environmental governance.