Scottish Conservatives Face Uphill Battle as May Election Looms Despite Badenoch's Rally Cry

5 predicted events · 14 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

# Scottish Conservatives Face Uphill Battle as May Election Looms Despite Badenoch's Rally Cry

Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch delivered a defiant speech at the Scottish Conservative conference at Murrayfield Stadium on February 20, 2026, attempting to energize party members ahead of May's Scottish Parliament elections. However, the gap between her optimistic rhetoric and the party's current polling position suggests a challenging campaign ahead with significant implications for both Scottish and UK politics.

Current Situation: A Party in Fourth Place

According to all 14 articles covering the event, the Scottish Conservatives are currently polling in joint fourth place—a dramatic fall from their previous status as the main opposition to the SNP in Holyrood. Badenoch, who has been Conservative leader for just over a year, delivered what the articles describe as her "final conference speech before May's election," positioning it as a critical moment for party morale and strategic direction. The leader's message centered on three key themes: stopping an SNP majority, promoting "Conservative principles" of aspiration and family values, and positioning the party as the antidote to what she termed "economic suicide" led by both Labour at Westminster and the SNP in Scotland. She invoked past successes, reminding activists that "we did it in 2016, we did it in 2021" when urging them to prevent an SNP majority again.

Key Trends and Signals

**The Disconnect Between Rhetoric and Reality**: Badenoch's assertive claim that "we are going to win again" stands in stark contrast to the polling data mentioned across all articles. This optimism-reality gap suggests either internal polling showing different trends, or a strategic decision to project confidence regardless of external metrics. **The "Stop the SNP" Strategy**: The repeated emphasis on using the "peach ballot paper" to vote Conservative as the way to "stop an SNP majority" indicates the party is returning to its core Scottish strategy from previous elections. This defensive positioning—focusing on what they oppose rather than what they offer—reveals a party still searching for a positive message that resonates with Scottish voters. **Party Renewal Under Pressure**: Badenoch's claim that Conservative renewal is "well under way" and that she's building "a party fit for the 2030s" suggests ongoing internal restructuring. However, with only months until the election, this timing raises questions about whether voters will perceive meaningful change or see it as too little, too late. **The Multi-Front Attack**: By criticizing both Labour (in Westminster) and the SNP (in Holyrood), the Scottish Conservatives risk diluting their message and failing to clearly differentiate themselves in a crowded political landscape that also includes Liberal Democrats, Scottish Greens, and potentially Reform UK.

Predictions: What Happens Next

**1. Intensified "Stop the SNP" Campaigning**: Over the next three months, expect the Scottish Conservatives to double down on tactical voting appeals. The party will likely release targeted messaging in constituencies where they believe they can convince Labour or Liberal Democrat voters to back Conservative candidates as the "only way" to prevent SNP victories. This strategy worked partially in 2016 and 2021, but its effectiveness has diminished as the political landscape has evolved. **2. Modest Gains at Best, Potential Historic Low**: Despite Badenoch's optimism, the polling position suggests the Scottish Conservatives will struggle to improve significantly on their current standing. The most likely outcome is the party finishing fourth in terms of vote share, though the regional list system may help them retain some seats. A worst-case scenario could see them fall behind both Liberal Democrats and potentially even the Greens in certain regions, representing their worst-ever performance in a Scottish Parliament election. **3. Leadership Questions to Resurface**: Should the May election results prove disappointing, expect renewed internal questioning about Badenoch's leadership and the party's strategic direction. While she may not face immediate challenge, poor Scottish results combined with any underwhelming local election performances elsewhere in the UK will fuel speculation about her position heading into a potential 2027 or 2028 UK general election. **4. Post-Election Strategy Pivot**: Following likely electoral disappointment, the Scottish Conservative leadership will need to fundamentally reassess their positioning. The current unionism-focused strategy appears to have reached its electoral ceiling, and the party will face pressure to develop economic and social policies that resonate beyond their core base. This could lead to either a more distinctly Scottish Conservative identity or, conversely, closer alignment with UK party messaging. **5. SNP Benefits from Opposition Fragmentation**: The Conservative weakness, combined with competition between Labour, Liberal Democrats, and Conservatives for the unionist vote, plays directly into SNP hands. Even if the SNP doesn't secure an outright majority, they're likely to remain the largest party by a significant margin, potentially enabling continued governance through confidence and supply arrangements.

The Broader Implications

Badenoch's Scottish conference speech represents more than just pre-election positioning—it's a window into the existential challenges facing the Conservative Party across the entire United Kingdom. The party that once positioned itself as the main alternative to the SNP in Scotland has seen its electoral coalition fracture, with voters peeling off to Labour (those prioritizing economic issues), Liberal Democrats (moderate pro-Union voters), and some even to Reform UK (those prioritizing immigration and cultural issues). The May 2026 Scottish election will serve as a crucial test not just for Scottish Conservatism, but for Badenoch's leadership credibility and the party's ability to rebuild after devastating losses. Her confident "we can win again" message, delivered despite joint fourth-place polling, suggests either remarkable internal confidence or a recognition that maintaining party morale requires projecting optimism regardless of objective circumstances. The reality, however, is that Scottish voters will deliver their verdict in approximately ten weeks, and current trends suggest that verdict will be harsh for the Conservatives.