Scottish Conservatives Face Uphill Battle as May Election Looms Despite Badenoch's Rallying Cry

5 predicted events · 14 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

Scottish Conservatives Brace for Challenging Election Despite Leader's Optimism

Kemi Badenoch delivered a defiant speech to Scottish Conservative party members on February 20, 2026, at Murrayfield Stadium in Edinburgh, promising the party can "win again" despite polling data placing them in joint fourth position ahead of May's Scottish Parliament elections. The address, described as her "final conference speech before May's election" (Articles 1-14), reveals a party attempting to project confidence while confronting significant electoral headwinds.

Current Situation: A Party at a Crossroads

The Scottish Conservatives find themselves in a precarious position just months before crucial elections. Having been in joint fourth place according to recent polling, the party faces the prospect of a dramatic decline from their previous performances. Badenoch, who has led the UK Conservative Party for "just over a year" (Articles 1-14), is attempting to revitalize the Scottish branch by emphasizing party renewal and traditional Conservative values. Her speech focused on three key messages: positioning the Conservatives as the party that can "stop an SNP majority," attacking both Labour at Westminster and the SNP in Scotland for leading the country toward "economic suicide," and reminding members of past successes in 2016 and 2021 (Articles 1-14). The emphasis on the "peach ballot paper" represents a tactical focus on the regional list vote, which has historically been crucial for Conservative seat retention in the Scottish Parliament.

Key Trends and Warning Signs

Several concerning trends emerge from Badenoch's speech and its context: **1. Defensive Positioning**: The entire framing of the speech is defensive rather than offensive. Badenoch is not promising Conservative government but rather positioning her party as the anti-SNP vote, suggesting internal polling shows limited appeal beyond unionist tactical voting. **2. Historical Nostalgia**: The repeated references to 2016 and 2021 successes indicate a party looking backward rather than forward. This backward-looking messaging typically signals a campaign struggling to articulate a compelling vision for the future. **3. Generic Messaging**: The speech contained broad platitudes about "aspiration," "family," and "neighbourhoods" without specific Scottish policy proposals. This suggests the party may lack a distinctive Scottish agenda that resonates with voters beyond constitutional issues. **4. Leadership Visibility**: This being characterized as Badenoch's "final conference speech" before the election (Articles 1-14) suggests limited planned engagement with the Scottish campaign, potentially indicating either strategic deprioritization or recognition that her involvement may not boost prospects.

Predictions: What Happens Next

### Prediction 1: Further Poll Decline and Campaign Struggles The Scottish Conservatives are likely to see their polling position deteriorate further or stagnate in joint fourth place through the campaign period. The party's messaging lacks the specificity and Scottish-focused content needed to cut through in a crowded field. With Labour resurgent under a UK government and the SNP maintaining its base despite challenges, the Conservatives' traditional unionist vote appears increasingly fragmented. The emphasis on "stopping an SNP majority" (Articles 1-14) will likely prove insufficient as Scottish Labour positions itself as the more credible unionist alternative, having demonstrated greater electoral momentum in recent UK elections. ### Prediction 2: Tensions Over UK Leadership Involvement Expect to see limited further involvement from Kemi Badenoch in the Scottish campaign beyond this conference appearance. UK party strategists will likely calculate that associating the Scottish campaign too closely with Westminster leadership could prove counterproductive, given traditional Scottish skepticism toward Conservative UK leaders. This will create internal tensions between Scottish Conservative candidates seeking support and UK party management protecting Badenoch's position. ### Prediction 3: Pivot to Hyper-Local Campaigning Facing national headwinds, Scottish Conservative candidates will increasingly abandon coordinated messaging in favor of hyper-local campaigns emphasizing individual candidate credentials and constituency issues. This fragmentation will be evident in March and April as candidates distance themselves from both UK and Scottish party leadership. ### Prediction 4: Post-Election Leadership Questions Regardless of the May election outcome (which polling suggests will be disappointing), expect renewed questions about Scottish Conservative leadership and strategy. A poor performance will trigger internal debates about whether the party should pursue a more distinctively Scottish identity or maintain closer alignment with UK leadership. ### Prediction 5: Seat Losses Concentrated in Regional Lists The party's likely losses will be concentrated in regional list seats rather than constituencies. While some constituency MSPs may hold seats through personal votes and tactical unionist voting, the regional list vote—where Badenoch emphasized the "peach ballot paper" (Articles 1-14)—will likely see significant Conservative erosion to both Labour and Liberal Democrats.

The Path Forward

The Scottish Conservatives face a challenging few months. Badenoch's rallying cry of "we can win again" appears more aspirational than realistic given current polling. The party's best-case scenario now appears to be limiting losses and maintaining relevance as a significant opposition voice, rather than achieving the victories of 2016 and 2021 referenced in her speech. The campaign's outcome will have significant implications not only for Scottish politics but for Badenoch's UK leadership, as a disastrous Scottish result would provide ammunition for internal party critics. The next few weeks will reveal whether the Conservatives can translate conference optimism into electoral recovery, though all current indicators suggest this will prove elusive.