Rahman's Bangladesh: Constitutional Reform and Regional Relations Set to Dominate New Government's First 100 Days

6 predicted events · 13 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

# Rahman's Bangladesh: Constitutional Reform and Regional Relations Set to Dominate New Government's First 100 Days

The Current Situation

Bangladesh has entered a transformative political chapter with Tarique Rahman sworn in as Prime Minister on February 17, 2026, following the Bangladesh Nationalist Party's (BNP) landslide electoral victory. According to Articles 1 and 2, this represents the first elected government since the 2024 student-led uprising that ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Rahman, who returned from a 17-year exile to lead his party to victory, now commands a two-thirds parliamentary majority—a mandate that provides both enormous opportunity and substantial responsibility. The swearing-in ceremony itself carried symbolic weight, with hundreds gathered outside Dhaka's parliament grounds and foreign dignitaries including Pakistan's Foreign Minister and India's Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla in attendance. As Article 2 notes, India's participation "underscores the deep and enduring friendship between the peoples of India and Bangladesh," signaling potential diplomatic continuity despite the regime change.

Key Trends and Signals

### Constitutional Reform Uncertainty The most significant immediate challenge facing Rahman's government is constitutional reform. Articles 8, 9, and 11 all highlight uncertainty about whether elected MPs will take a second oath as members of a proposed constitutional reform council. This council is intended to implement proposals from the July National Charter—presumably a document emerging from the 2024 uprising that helped legitimize the transition. This uncertainty reveals competing priorities within Bangladesh's new political order: the desire to honor revolutionary demands for systemic change versus the practical challenges of governing with democratic legitimacy. The two-thirds majority gives the BNP constitutional amendment power, but the hesitation suggests internal debates about process and scope. ### Generational Expectations Article 2 captures a critical sentiment from the ground: "People really want changes. They want to see new faces in parliament: People with good qualifications, even people who are younger." This reflects the student-led nature of the 2024 uprising and indicates that Rahman's government faces high expectations from a young, reform-minded constituency. The phrase "cautious optimism among Gen Z Bangladeshis" from the article titles suggests a population willing to give the new government a chance but prepared to hold it accountable. ### Regional Diplomatic Positioning The attendance patterns at the swearing-in ceremony are revealing. While India sent its Lok Sabha Speaker and Pakistan sent its Foreign Minister, neither Prime Minister Modi nor Pakistan's Prime Minister attended personally, as noted in Articles 8 and 9. This suggests a calibrated regional approach—maintaining relationships while avoiding premature endorsements that could be politically costly if Rahman's government struggles.

Predictions: What Happens Next

### 1. Constitutional Reform Council Formation Within 30 Days The Rahman government will likely establish the constitutional reform council within the first month, but with a modified mandate that balances revolutionary demands with governance practicality. The two-thirds majority makes this politically feasible, and the July National Charter provides a roadmap. However, expect the reforms to be phased rather than immediate wholesale changes. The government cannot afford to ignore the constitutional reform issue given its centrality to the 2024 uprising's legitimacy. Yet the reported "uncertainty" suggests internal debates about scope and timing. The compromise will likely be establishing the council quickly while setting a longer timeline for actual constitutional amendments—perhaps 6-12 months for proposals and public consultation. ### 2. Early Focus on Economic Stabilization Rahman's cabinet, sworn in during the 4:00 PM ceremony mentioned in Article 2, will prioritize economic stabilization measures within the first 60 days. Bangladesh faced significant economic challenges under Hasina, and the 2024 uprising likely disrupted economic activity. The new government will need quick wins to maintain public support. Expect announcements on inflation control, foreign investment policies, and possibly renegotiation of major infrastructure deals. The economic portfolio appointments will be closely watched as indicators of the government's ideological direction—whether it leans toward free-market reforms or more nationalist economic policies. ### 3. Delicate India Relations Management India-Bangladesh relations will become increasingly complex within the next 90 days. India's decision to send the Lok Sabha Speaker rather than Prime Minister Modi signals cautious engagement. Rahman will need to balance several competing interests: maintaining economic ties with India (Bangladesh's largest regional trading partner), addressing nationalist sentiment that may be skeptical of Indian influence, and managing any fallout from Hasina's exile. Expect an early bilateral visit—likely Rahman traveling to New Delhi within 2-3 months—to establish personal rapport and reassure India about continuity on security cooperation, particularly regarding northeastern Indian insurgent groups that have historically used Bangladesh as sanctuary. However, Rahman may also seek to diversify Bangladesh's regional partnerships, possibly strengthening ties with China as a counterbalance. ### 4. Youth Inclusion Tests Within First 100 Days The government will face early pressure to demonstrate inclusion of younger voices in governance. Given that Gen Z led the 2024 uprising, Rahman's administration will need to show it's not simply a return to traditional BNP politics. Watch for appointments of younger individuals to advisory roles, ministerial positions, or the constitutional reform council. Failure to deliver visible youth inclusion could trigger the first significant protests against the new government, potentially within 3-6 months. Article 2's reference to people wanting "new faces in parliament" with "good qualifications, even people who are younger" suggests this is a litmus test for the government's reformist credentials. ### 5. Hasina Factor Complications The status of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, now in exile, will emerge as a contentious issue within 2-3 months. Questions about accountability for alleged abuses during her tenure, the legal status of her exile, and whether she can safely return will test Rahman's commitment to rule of law versus political reconciliation. Rahman may face pressure from his base to prosecute Hasina while simultaneously needing to signal to the international community that Bangladesh won't descend into cycles of political revenge. Expect the establishment of some form of truth and reconciliation process or judicial inquiry within the first quarter.

The Stakes

Tarique Rahman has inherited a mandate for transformative change backed by overwhelming electoral legitimacy. His first 100 days will determine whether Bangladesh embarks on genuine democratic renewal or returns to familiar patterns of dominant-party politics. The world is watching whether a nation that overthrew an autocrat through people power can build lasting democratic institutions—or whether the cycle of hope and disappointment continues. The two-thirds majority is both blessing and curse: it provides the power to enact real change but removes the excuse of opposition obstruction. Rahman's government will be judged by its own choices, and the youth who brought him to power will not wait long for results.