Mexico's Power Vacuum: Why El Mencho's Death Will Likely Unleash Sustained Cartel Violence and Internal Warfare

8 predicted events · 20 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The Current Crisis

Mexico finds itself in a precarious position following the killing of Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), during a Mexican special forces operation on Sunday, February 23, 2026. According to Article 2, El Mencho was tracked through a romantic partner and died from injuries sustained in a firefight while being transported to Mexico City. The immediate aftermath has been catastrophic: at least 25 National Guard members killed in Jalisco state alone (Articles 3, 5, 6), with violent attacks erupting across 20 states including vehicle burnings, roadblocks, and attacks on security forces (Article 14). The Mexican government has deployed approximately 9,500 troops overall, with an additional 2,500 sent specifically to western Mexico (Articles 2, 14). President Claudia Sheinbaum has urged calm, stating that over 250 cartel roadblocks have been cleared (Article 14). However, the violence has already disrupted daily life dramatically, with schools closed, flights cancelled to Puerto Vallarta, and tourists stranded (Article 4).

Historical Patterns Point to Prolonged Instability

History provides a sobering lesson about what happens when major cartel kingpins are eliminated. As Article 9 notes, "the killings of other cartel kingpins have done little to stem the production and flow of drugs towards the US." Article 3 explicitly warns that "the killing of top-level cartel figures in the past has had little impact on the drug trade and has often created a leadership vacuum that others [compete to fill]." The CJNG is not a simple organization with a clear line of succession. It has grown into one of Mexico's most powerful and feared criminal organizations, operating across most of the country with what Article 16 describes as a "large military-style arsenal." El Mencho's brutal leadership style—including sending severed pig heads as threats and vowing to kill enemies "and even your dogs" (Article 16)—suggests an organization built on fear and personal loyalty rather than institutional stability.

Prediction 1: Intensified Internal Power Struggle Within CJNG

The most immediate and likely outcome will be a violent succession battle within the CJNG itself. With no clear successor publicly identified and El Mencho's leadership based heavily on personal authority and ruthlessness, multiple lieutenants will likely vie for control. This internal fragmentation could manifest within 2-4 weeks as different factions test their strength. The loss of 25 National Guard troops (Article 5 describes this as "devastating for Mexico") demonstrates the cartel's continued operational capacity and willingness to engage in direct military-style confrontations. This aggressive response to El Mencho's death suggests multiple factions may already be coordinating separately, each trying to demonstrate strength to claim leadership legitimacy.

Prediction 2: Territorial Encroachment by Rival Cartels

Article 8 identifies several powerful cartel leaders still at large, including Ismael Zambada Sicairos of the Sinaloa Cartel, who has "emerged as one of the cartel's key figures" since his father's 2024 arrest. The Sinaloa Cartel and other rivals will almost certainly attempt to seize CJNG territory during this vulnerable transition period. Jalisco state and the lucrative smuggling routes the CJNG controls represent billions of dollars in drug trafficking revenue. Rival organizations would be strategically foolish not to exploit this moment of weakness. Expect increased cartel-on-cartel violence, particularly in contested border regions and key trafficking corridors, within the next 1-3 months.

Prediction 3: Limited Long-Term Impact on Drug Trade

Despite US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau's claim that El Mencho's death is "a great development for Mexico, the US, Latin America, and the world" (Article 9), the structural factors driving Mexico's drug trade remain unchanged. As Article 9 pointedly observes, these cartels "owe their very existence to US policy and drug consumption in the first place." The CJNG will likely fragment into 2-4 smaller organizations rather than disappear entirely. Drug production and trafficking flows to the US will continue largely uninterrupted, though potentially under different organizational structures. Within 6 months, we should expect either a consolidated new CJNG leadership or the emergence of successor organizations maintaining similar trafficking operations.

Prediction 4: Increased US-Mexico Security Tensions

Article 15 notes that President Trump has "repeatedly threatened to attack Mexico" and has called on Mexico to "step up" action against cartels. Article 10 emphasizes that Mexican authorities stressed "US security agents didn't actively participate" in the operation, suggesting sensitivity about sovereignty concerns. The immediate violence following El Mencho's death may actually increase US pressure for more aggressive action, while simultaneously demonstrating to Mexican authorities the destabilizing consequences of kingpin strategies. This tension will likely manifest in diplomatic friction over the next 2-3 months, particularly if American tourists continue to be affected (Article 4) or if drug flows temporarily increase during the power transition.

Prediction 5: Temporary Economic Disruption in Affected Regions

Puerto Vallarta and other tourist destinations in western Mexico have already seen flight cancellations from major carriers including Air Canada, United Airlines, and Aeromexico (Article 4). Article 1 quotes a long-term American resident saying he has "never experienced anything like this" despite feeling the area was normally safe. Economic impacts will likely persist for 4-8 weeks as tourist confidence rebuilds. However, unless violence becomes protracted, Mexico's tourism industry has historically proven resilient, and major resort areas should see gradual normalization as security forces maintain heightened presence.

The Broader Strategic Failure

The fundamental issue, as Article 9 articulates, is that the "kingpin strategy" of targeting cartel leaders has repeatedly failed to address the root causes of drug trafficking: persistent US demand, limited economic opportunities in Mexico, corruption, and the massive profits available in the illegal drug trade. El Mencho's death may prove to be a tactical success but a strategic failure, creating more violence and instability while doing little to reduce drug production or trafficking. The pattern established by previous cartel leadership eliminations suggests Mexico is entering a period of heightened violence that could last 6-12 months before a new equilibrium emerges—one that will likely look remarkably similar to the status quo, just with different names leading similar organizations.