India-Bangladesh Reset: Cautious Optimism as BNP Government Takes Power, but Jamaat Influence Looms Large

6 predicted events · 7 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The New Political Landscape

Bangladesh's political map has been dramatically redrawn. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, secured an overwhelming mandate in the February 12, 2026 elections, winning approximately 209 of the 299-300 directly elected seats. This landslide victory follows the tumultuous August 2024 uprising that unseated Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government, marking the end of an era and the beginning of a new chapter in Bangladesh's political history. Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the first world leader to personally phone Rahman with congratulations, signaling India's eagerness to reset relations that have been strained since Hasina's flight to India in August 2024. According to Article 2, Modi "conveyed his best wishes and support to Rahman in his endeavour to fulfil the aspirations of the people of Bangladesh," while reaffirming "India's continued commitment to the peace, progress, and prosperity of both our peoples."

The Jamaat Wild Card

However, the electoral results contain a significant complication: Jamaat-e-Islami achieved a historic high, emerging as the principal opposition with approximately 68 seats. As Article 5 notes, this marks "a historic high" for the Islamist party. This development represents a critical concern for India-Bangladesh relations, as diplomatic sources cited in Article 2 explicitly identified "a stronger presence of the Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh's new national assembly" as a worry for bilateral ties. The Jamaat's enhanced political position creates a delicate balancing act for both Rahman and India. While the BNP has historical ties with Jamaat—having governed in coalition during Khaleda Zia's 2001-2006 administration—the current geopolitical context demands a more nuanced approach.

Rahman's Development-Focused Approach: A Window of Opportunity

According to Article 4, diplomatic sources have identified Rahman's 31-point development agenda as potentially providing "an opportunity to both sides to normalise the relations." Significantly, Rahman's campaign strategy avoided playing the "anti-India card" directly—a departure that has been "keenly watched" by Indian officials. His agenda includes plans in "the digital domain and infrastructure building" that could serve as concrete areas for bilateral cooperation. Article 6 quotes Professor Avinash Paliwal from SOAS University noting that "compared to Jamaat, BNP is politically experienced and a moderate party. As such, it is a safer bet for India." This assessment reflects a broader recognition in Delhi that engaging with the BNP government represents a more manageable pathway than the alternatives.

The Balanced Diplomacy Signal

The new government's invitation to 13 countries—including India, China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others—for the swearing-in ceremony represents what Article 3 describes as "a signal of the new government's balanced foreign policy." This multi-alignment approach suggests Bangladesh will pursue strategic autonomy rather than exclusive alignment with any single power.

What Happens Next: Four Key Predictions

### 1. Gradual Normalization of Practical Relations India and Bangladesh will likely move toward restoring operational connectivity within the next 3-6 months. This will include resuming visa services, restarting cross-border trains and buses, and increasing flight frequencies between Dhaka and Delhi. The foundations for this are already visible in the warm initial exchanges and mutual invitations. ### 2. Development Projects as the Entry Point Bilateral engagement will likely center on development and infrastructure projects rather than politically sensitive issues. Rahman's 31-point agenda, particularly in digital infrastructure and economic development, will serve as the initial platform for cooperation. India will likely offer technical assistance and investment in these areas as confidence-building measures. ### 3. The Jamaat Factor Will Constrain Deeper Cooperation While practical relations normalize, deeper security and intelligence cooperation will face significant obstacles due to Jamaat's strengthened position. India's "red lines on insurgency and extremism," as mentioned in Article 7, will limit how far the relationship can advance. Rahman will need to carefully balance his governance coalition's dynamics with India's security concerns. ### 4. China and Pakistan Will Gain Greater Access Bangladesh will pursue closer economic ties with China and warmer political relations with Pakistan, though this will be calibrated to avoid alarming India excessively. The invitation of both countries to the swearing-in ceremony signals this multi-vector approach. India will need to accept a reduced sphere of influence compared to the Hasina era.

The Critical Variables

Three factors will determine whether this cautious optimism translates into enduring improvement: 1. **Rahman's ability to maintain distance from Jamaat's ideological positions** while governing with their presence in parliament 2. **India's willingness to accept Bangladesh's strategic autonomy** and resist rhetoric that alienates Bangladeshi public opinion 3. **Management of contentious bilateral issues** including border killings, water disputes, and trade imbalances As Article 5 aptly notes, "Relations between Dhaka and New Delhi have been at a crossroads." The direction chosen in the coming months will shape South Asian geopolitics for years to come. The initial signs suggest pragmatism may prevail over ideology, but the journey from "cautious optimism" to genuine partnership remains fraught with challenges.