US Fed minutes to gold , silver rates , FII activity : Top five triggers that may dictate Indian stock market this week

livemint.com · Feb 15, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Indian stock market: Indian indices - Sensex and Nifty - witnessed sharp declines on Friday, February 13, pressured by weak global cues and rising concerns over artificial intelligence and its potential impact on the global economy. The Sensex plunged 1,048 points, or 1.25%, to close at 82,626.76, while the Nifty 50 fell 336 points, or 1.30%, to settle at 25,471.10.“Markets ended the week lower, with benchmark indices declining around 1% amid rising concerns over artificial intelligence-led disruption and a sharp sell-off in technology stocks. The tone was initially positive; however, a steep decline in the final two sessions wiped out earlier gains and pushed the indices into negative territory. As a result, the benchmark indices — Nifty and Sensex — settled near their weekly lows at 25,471.10 and 82,626.76, respectively,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.Stock Market Outlook next weekAccording to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, with tariff‑related concerns easing and the domestic earnings season drawing to a close on a mixed trend, market focus will hinge largely on global cues, including the US labour data and shifting expectations surrounding the US Fed’s policy path.“The overall sentiment is likely to remain cautious as investors monitor global AI‑driven disruptions and geopolitical risks, while improved valuations and constructive GDP forecasts may help sustain FII inflows. With IT and metals facing persistent structural and external headwinds, market leadership may rotate toward domestically oriented sectors such as banking, autos, and select consumption‑driven segments. However, broader indices are expected to remain range‑bound until clearer macroeconomic and policy signals emerge,” Nair added.Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market1] US Fed minutesAccording to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, market participants will now closely monitor the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday, February 18, along with the U.S. GDP data for the October–December quarter, due next week. These releases are expected to provide greater clarity on the Fed’s policy stance and the likely direction of interest rates in the near term.2] RBI MPC meeting minutesThe Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is also set to release the minutes of its most recent monetary policy meeting on Friday, February 20. These will be closely watched for clues to members’ views on inflation, liquidity conditions, and the future policy trajectory, particularly at a time when global interest rate expectations remain uncertain, and capital flows into emerging markets, including India, are becoming more responsive to monetary signals.3] IT stocks to remain in focusIT sector turned out to be the worst-performing sector, declining more than 8% over the week. The broader market weakness was largely driven by the sharp fall in IT stocks, with the Nifty IT index plunging nearly 8% every week. Heavyweights such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and Wipro witnessed significant selling pressure.Investor concerns have grown that generative and agentic AI technologies could structurally dampen demand for conventional outsourcing services, impacting earnings visibility going forward.4] Gold and silver ratesPrecious metals started the week in a controlled consolidation phase after the earlier capitulation-driven sell-off that cleared out leveraged long positions. Volatility has eased significantly, with price action now indicating a more balanced interplay between profit booking and buying on dips.The rebound in the US dollar has steadied instead of gaining momentum, while US real yields continue to trade within a range, restricting immediate downside pressure on bullion.On February 14, spot gold advanced 2.2% to $5,031.52 per ounce as of 4:31 p.m. in New York, while silver gained 2.5% to trade at $77.16 per ounce.5] FII ActivityIn February so far, FIIs were net buyers on most trading sessions. After the India–US trade agreement boosted market sentiment, FIIs purchased equities on seven of the eleven trading days, while selling on only four. However, data available till February 13 shows that FIIs have still recorded a net equity outflow of ₹1,374 crore so far this month.“The net figure has been skewed by the big sell figure of ₹7395 crores on 13th, when the Nifty fell by 336 points, and the week witnessed massive selling in IT stocks reeling under the Anthropic shock. It is possible that the FIIs sold IT stocks heavily in the cash market when the IT index crashed by 8.2% during the week ended 13th February. Therefore, once the dust over the IT sector settles down, FIIs are likely to turn buyers, going forward. If the unwinding of the AI trade in the US during the last few days gets extended, it will be a trigger for FIIs to turn buyers in India, which is a non-AI market,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.Technical Outlook for next weekSensexAccording to Ponmudi of Enrich Money, Sensex mirrored the broader weakness, closing sharply lower after breaching channel supports near the 83,000–82,800 zone.“It remains near key exponential moving averages, immediate support is placed at 82,500–82,300. Resistance is seen at 83,500–84,000, corresponding to prior swing highs and supply areas,” he said.Nifty 50On the Nifty 50 outlook, Ponmudi said that the index has broken down decisively from its recent consolidation range, closing below 25,500 after testing lower levels and forming a strong bearish candle supported by rising downside momentum, largely driven by IT sector weakness. The index is now testing critical support around the 25,400–25,300 zone, which aligns with the 200-DMA and 200-EMA cluster. A deeper cushion is visible near 25,200–25,000.“As long as 25,300 holds on a closing basis, the broader structural uptrend remains technically intact. However, a decisive breakdown below this level could accelerate downside pressure toward lower supports. Option data indicates a bearish skew, with aggressive call writing at higher strikes and fresh put buildup at lower levels. The near-term expected range is 25,200–25,700, with a strategy bias toward selective dip buying at strong supports while closely monitoring global cues and open interest shifts,” Ponmudi added.Bank NiftyBank Nifty displayed relative resilience compared to the broader market but eventually joined the selloff, closing at 60,186.65, around 0.91% lower after defending the 60,000 mark earlier in the week."The index continues to maintain a range-bound structure with a mildly positive bias relative to Nifty, as long as it sustains above the 59,500–60,000 zone, which aligns with key trendline and moving average supports.Immediate resistance is seen at 60,400–60,500. A decisive breakout above 60,800–61,000 could trigger renewed bullish momentum toward 61,200–61,500 and potentially fresh highs. On the downside, a sustained break below 60,000 would increase vulnerability toward 59,000–58,800. The banking space could emerge as the leader in any potential recovery phase, provided financials stabilize amid broader market caution," he said.Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.