Trump can prevent a war among America Mideast allies

livemint.com · Feb 20, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Syria’s possible descent into another civil war, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, the United Arab Emirates’ failed offensive in Yemen, final U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, and the slow transition from war to peace in Gaza may appear to be disconnected events in a fractious region. They form a pattern, however, of a deepening regional crisis. With the decline of Iranian ambition, a new Middle East is taking shape, one that pits U.S. allies against each other. President Trump has an opportunity to do more than negotiate a cease-fire in the Middle East. If he thinks beyond Iran, he can stop a war from breaking out. Mr. Trump has waited to strike Iran, but the Islamic Republic is in terminal decline. One way or another it will fall, either through toppling or imploding from within. Meanwhile, other rivalries—with U.S. allies on both sides—are supplanting the Iran-Israel antagonism. On one side stand Saudi Arabia and Turkey; on the other stand the U.A.E. and Israel. Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman sees the Emirates as a mortal threat to the kingdom’s survival. The Emirati monarchy has become a “Switzerland in the Gulf," complete with international finance, maritime trade and even AI development, to offset declining oil revenue. In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, Riyadh’s attempt to offset its own oil dependency, has stalled. The crown prince seems to realize that only one Gulf power can become a full-service Westernized financial hub, motivating Saudi Arabia to try to stymie Emirati ambitions and coerce the U.A.E. into becoming a junior partner to the kingdom. In Yemen, the two powers squared off as the U.A.E. and the Southern Transitional Council struck first against the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council; the Saudi counterstrike badly damaged the Emirati position. In Libya, Riyadh is pressuring Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army to reduce its relationship with the U.A.E., limiting Emirati influence in Sudan. On the U.A.E., Saudi interests align with Turkey’s. Autocratic President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees Emirati action in Libya, Sudan and Somalia as a threat to his personal interests and to Turkey’s economic and strategic interests. Formally a U.S. ally, Turkey sees Israel, a genuine U.S. ally, as a security threat. Mr. Erdogan has leveraged anti-Zionism and antisemitism for internal purposes while periodically working with Israel. Since Israel’s war with Hamas, he has made anti-Israeli sentiment a cornerstone of his politics. Turkey seeks dominance in Syria, at the expense of the Kurds and Druze, explicitly to undermine Israel. It supports Hamas while opposing the Israel-led peace deal in Gaza. As Turkish and Saudi interests have aligned, so have Israeli and Emirati objectives. The U.A.E. remains fearful of direct Iranian retaliation and has remained on the sidelines of post-2023 Israel-Iran confrontation. But the U.A.E. and Israel agree on almost every other issue, from East Africa to the Levant. This new alignment, which pits Israel and the U.A.E. against Saudi Arabia and Turkey, points to a regional war. Both sides will use proxy forces at first, but direct confrontation is likely. Saudi Arabia will be tempted to flex its muscles along the Emirati border and Turkey will do the same in Syria. The U.A.E. and Israel will be compelled to respond. The U.S. is the only power that can halt this confrontation. Pressure should be applied against Saudi Arabia, the prime mover in this antagonism. Without the Saudi-Turkish alignment, the Turkish-Israeli issue in Syria would remain compartmentalized. East and North African questions would persist, but they would be far less disruptive. Restraining Saudi Arabia by making clear that an intra-Gulf spat will have consequences for U.S. policy can ward off future aggression. The U.S. can call into question the U.S.-Saudi deal of this past November, on which Riyadh relies for future military, civil nuclear, and technological support. Saudi ambitions, the U.S. must demonstrate, require an outlet beyond its regional rivalries. Nor does Riyadh have other strategic options: Russia lacks the capacity and trust to step in as a regional guarantor, while China’s doing so would carry obvious risks to Beijing’s relationship with Washington. As the Iranian regime falls, core regional allies of the U.S. will turn on each other. Fragmentation will threaten Middle Eastern stability, in which the U.S. has a major interest, while creating inroads for Russia and China to recruit allies and shift the balance of power in their favor. Middle East politics, as we are about to be reminded, are as fickle as Desdemona is faithful. To protect its interests, U.S. policy must adapt. Mr. Cropsey is president of the Yorktown Institute. He served as a naval officer and as deputy undersecretary of the Navy and is the author of “Mayday" and “Seablindness." Catch all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates. more