Turning the page ? Labour recovery in the polls show a path to 2029 victory

labourlist.org · Feb 18, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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After a lot of dismal headlines over the past couple weeks, we’ve all woken up to the welcome news that inflation has fallen to 3%, potentially setting the stage for another interest rate cut by the Bank of England. Rachel Reeves has said that the cost of living is the government’s “number one priority” and said: “Our economic plan is the right one, to cut the cost of living, cut the national debt, and create the conditions for growth and investment in every part of the country.” With the cost of living dominating the national conversation, any relief will make a huge difference to working people and their families across the country – and could pave a path for Labour to head toward a second term in office. It may have gone almost unnoticed, but even amid scandal in SW1, Labour has been gradually narrowing the gap in the opinion polls – with YouGov’s latest poll putting Reform only five points ahead of Labour. At one bookmakers too, Labour have narrowly overtaken Reform to be the favourites to win the most seats at the next general election. With the government at what we can only hope is its mid-term nadir, some in Labour HQ will probably be looking at that gap and coming to the same conclusion I have – it can be overcome in an election campaign. After all, as Reform continue to welcome a Z-list cast of failed Conservatives increasingly detached from the lives of working people, Labour will have a proud record of achievements that it should boast about come 2029. A first test of this could well be in Gorton and Denton next week, where we have heard that Labour are increasingly hopeful that victory could be within their grasp. There will continue to be bumps along the way – with the government’s rumoured plans to ditch a commitment to pay under-21s the same minimum wage as older workers unlikely to win over any young voters who are already considering backing the Greens. However, if the government can help people where it matters – their pocket, then along with all the other important work Labour is doing, perhaps we can deprive Farage of the keys to Number 10. Subscribe here to our daily newsletter roundup of Labour news, analysis and comment– and follow us on TikTok, Bluesky, WhatsApp, X and Facebook. Share your thoughts. Contribute on this story or tell your own by writing to our Editor. The best letters every week will be published on the site. Find out how to get your letter published. SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected]. SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning. DONATE: If you value our work, please chip in a few pounds a week and become one of our supporters, helping sustain and expand our coverage. PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected]. ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected]. Daniel Green Daniel Green is a senior reporter at LabourList. View all articles by Daniel Green Value our free and unique service? LabourList has more readers than ever before - but we need your support. Our dedicated coverage of Labour's policies and personalities, internal debates, selections and elections relies on donations from our readers. Support LabourList