Is Trump about to go to war with Iran ?

aol.com · Feb 20, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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In recent weeks, President Trump has amassed what he’s described as an “armada” of destroyers, aircraft carriers, warships, submarines and attack planes within striking distance of Iran — a build-up that has “progressed to the point [where he] has the option to take military action … as soon as this weekend,” the New York Times reported on Wednesday.At the same time, the president has said that regime change “would be the best thing that could happen” to Iran, which has been ruled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since 1989.“We have to make a meaningful deal, otherwise bad things happen,” Trump told his Board of Peace in Washington, D.C., on Thursday. “They can't have a nuclear weapon and they've been told that very strongly."So is Trump about to launch a major war with Iran? Here’s what we know.How we got hereIf a possible U.S. attack on Iran sounds familiar, that’s because Trump already launched one in June 2025, striking the regime’s Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites in concert with Israel.The president claimed at the time that Iran’s facilities had been “completely and totally obliterated,” putting a “stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror.”Yet other reports suggested that the Iranians might have moved their stash of enriched uranium before the strikes — and that the U.S. bombings left at least some of Tehran’s nuclear program intact.During his first term, Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal that had "dismantled much of [Iran’s] nuclear program and opened its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief,” according to the Council on Foreign Relations — at which point Iran “resumed its nuclear activities.”When protests broke out in Iran late last year — and when the regime launched a violent crackdown that reportedly killed thousands — Trump started weighing another round of strikes, repeatedly declaring that the U.S. military was “locked and loaded” and ready to attack. Then, in mid-January, Trump abruptly backed down at the urging of Israel and several Arab nations after Iranian authorities said they had canceled hundreds of scheduled executions.So why is Trump saber-rattling again — and beefing up America’s firepower in the region?According to Vice President JD Vance, “our primary interest here is we don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon.”To that end, American and Iranian officials held three hours of indirect talks in Geneva, Switzerland, on Tuesday that ended with a “set of guiding principles,” according to Iran’s foreign minister, as well as an agreement to exchange drafts of a potential deal within two weeks.But Trump allies have also been pushing for regime change rather than diplomacy.“I talked to the president the day before yesterday and we talked about Iran,” Texas Sen. Ted Cruz told Fox News on Wednesday. “I said the regime is teetering, the ayatollah is in his last days — and I said do not let this opportunity pass.”Where things stand right nowTrump seems to be moving forward on two tracks at once. Yes, he’s pursuing a diplomatic deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program. But he’s also pressuring Tehran to meet his terms by surging U.S. military forces to the region — forces he says he’s prepared to deploy if diplomacy falls short.“So now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not,” Trump said on Thursday. “You’re gonna be finding out over the next, probably, 10 days.”The question now is whether a deal on Trump’s terms is really attainable.According to the Times, “three Iranian officials familiar with [Tuesday’s] talks said that Iran had indicated a willingness to suspend nuclear enrichment for three to five years — which would cover the duration of Mr. Trump’s presidency — and then join a regional consortium for civilian grade enrichment.” The Times also reported that Iran had offered to “dilute its stockpile of uranium on its own soil in the presence of international inspectors.” In exchange, the U.S. would have to “lift financial and banking sanctions and the embargo on [Iran’s] oil sales.”The problem is that Iran has insisted that the talks be strictly limited to its nuclear program — but the Trump administration is also demanding that Tehran curb the range of its ballistic missiles and stop supporting militias across the region.In a speech on Tuesday, the ayatollah accused the Trump administration of an “illogical” attempt to interfere with Iran’s self-defense. “Any country without deterrent weapons will be crushed under the feet of its enemies,” he said.A day later, Vance told Fox News “it was very clear that the president has set some red lines that the Iranians are not yet willing to actually acknowledge and work through.”As a result, “senior U.S. officials remain skeptical that the Iranians will agree to a deal that satisfies Mr. Trump, who has shown a growing impatience with the negotiations,” according to the Times.Other outlets have been blunter. “The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize,” Axios reported on Wednesday. “There's no evidence a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran is on the horizon. But there's more and more evidence that a war is imminent.”What’s nextLast June, Trump also indicated that he would take the next two weeks to decide between continued talks and military action. Following Israel’s lead, U.S. forces attacked three days later.Citing two Israeli officials, Axios reported on Wednesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is “pushing for a maximalist scenario targeting regime change as well as Iran's nuclear and missile programs” — and “preparing for a scenario of war within days.”According to CBS News, Trump has “not yet made a final decision about whether to strike,” but top national security officials have told him that “the military is ready” to attack Iran “as soon as Saturday.”“The boss is getting fed up,” one Trump adviser told Axios. “Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is a 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks.”How that action unfolds — and what it involves — remains to be seen. Experts say Trump might be tempted to attack because the ayatollah has been weakened by age, sanctions, economic upheaval and protests. But dislodging him would not be as simple as, say, toppling Nicolás Maduro.In fact, “a U.S. military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month's pinpoint operation in Venezuela,” according to Axios’s sources — with surefire retaliation against U.S. and Israeli targets.“An aircraft carrier is certainly a dangerous piece of equipment,” the ayatollah said on Tuesday, shortly after Trump ordered a second one to the region. “But more dangerous than the carrier is the weapon that can send it to the bottom of the sea.”