Europe fading influence in the Middle East | The Jerusalem Post

jpost.com · Feb 22, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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BySHARON PARDOFEBRUARY 22, 2026 13:15For decades, Europe cultivated the belief that the Middle East was not merely a distant arena of instability, but a defining stage upon which the European integration project could demonstrate global relevance. From the aftermath of the Six Day War in 1967 onward, the conflict became a recurring fixture on the European foreign policy agenda.It was never simply about diplomacy.It was about identity.Europe was emerging from its own violent 20th century, sought to present itself as a normative power capable of shaping peace beyond its borders.That aspiration has always contained an element of tension. Europe wanted to matter. But it rarely possessed the instruments of hard power necessary to impose outcomes. The result was a paradox that critics captured succinctly: Europe was often a player, but primarily a payer.Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar speaks at a press conference on the day of an EU-Israel Association Council with European Union foreign ministers in Brussels, Belgium, February 24, 2025. (credit: REUTERS/YVES HERMAN)This pattern became particularly visible after the Oslo Accords in 1993, when the European Union (EU) positioned itself as a central financial pillar of the peace process. European funds sustained Palestinian institutions, supported civil society initiatives, and underwrote much of the infrastructure associated with nation-building. Europe’s economic weight translated into an undeniable presence, even if political influence remained uneven.Today, however, that long-standing equation appears increasingly fragile.The past two and a half years have reshaped the regional landscape in ways that have exposed the limits of European engagement. The October 7 massacre and the ensuing Israel-Hamas war generated seismic political and humanitarian consequences. The subsequent 12-day war between Israel and Iran in 2025 further underscored the volatility of a region already stretched by overlapping crises. Against this backdrop, the EU has struggled to articulate a coherent strategic posture. Statements have been plentiful. Influence has been scarce.Europe risks being perceived as a marginal actorThe uncomfortable truth is that Europe now risks being perceived not as an underpowered actor, but as a marginal one.This evolving reality is reflected in Europe’s reaction to what Trump has branded the “Board of Peace.” This initiative, controversial and loosely defined, carries the unmistakable imprint of American political theater. (It also comes with $1 b. member-state fee.) Europe’s response has been revealing.The EU has made it clear that it wishes to remain in the room. Participation signals continued interest. Absence would signal irrelevance. At the same time, Brussels has been careful to avoid any suggestion that it seeks to displace or undermine the United Nations’ longstanding role in the Middle East peace process.This duality captures Europe’s dilemma. It wants visibility without confrontation, presence without ownership. The EU’s instinct is to observe, engage, and influence indirectly, while preserving the legitimacy of multilateral frameworks. In principle, this is defensible.The UN remains the internationally recognized forum for conflict resolution. In practice, however, such restraint risks reinforcing the impression that Europe is content with symbolic involvement rather than substantive leadership.Perception, in diplomacy, is rarely a secondary matter. The launch of the 2025 EU “Pact for the Mediterranean” was precisely intended to counter this sense of drift. The initiative promised renewed economic cooperation, investment, and regional partnership.It sought to reposition Europe as a long-term stakeholder in its southern neighborhood. Yet, the timing has complicated its reception. In a period defined by wars, security threats, and geopolitical realignments, development-oriented frameworks struggle to command attention. Grand strategies cannot easily compete with immediate crises.More troubling is the growing suspicion that Europe’s diminished role is not solely a matter of capability, but also of priority.Europe today faces an existential security challenge much closer to home. The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has reoriented political energies, financial resources, and strategic thinking.European governments are consumed by questions of deterrence, defense spending, and preparedness for the possibility of broader confrontation. In such an environment, the Middle East slides down the hierarchy of urgency.This is not indifference. It is triage.Still, for regional actors, the distinction may be academic.Europe’s limited profile at the inauguration ceremony of Trump’s Board of Peace only amplified this perception.Representation matters in international politics. Sending a low-key EU commissioner conveyed a message, intentional or not, about Europe’s relative investment in the initiative. For regional observers, symbolism accumulates. The narrative that emerges is one of cautious engagement bordering on disengagement.Europe, as ever, appears primarily preoccupied with itself.What does this diminished posture mean for Israel?First, it demands realism.The EU is unlikely to function as a decisive political broker in the current Middle Eastern landscape. Divergent member-state positions, institutional constraints, and competing priorities limit the Union’s capacity for unified strategic action. Israel cannot tie its security calculus to European diplomatic intervention.Yet, dismissing Europe outright would be a strategic miscalculation.The EU remains Israel’s largest trading partner, a relationship that anchors deep economic interdependence.European markets, investment flows, and regulatory frameworks shape significant sectors of the Israeli economy.Even more consequential is Europe’s role in supporting Israeli science and technology. Through research and innovation programs, European funding has contributed substantially to Israel’s academic and technological prowess. This cooperation reflects a longstanding European admiration for Israeli innovation, even amid persistent political tensions.That contradiction is unlikely to disappear.Europe will almost certainly emerge as one of the largest contributors to the reconstruction of Gaza once conditions permit large-scale rebuilding. Financial involvement has long been Europe’s preferred instrument of regional engagement.However, economic participation does not necessarily translate into political alignment. European criticism of Israeli policies has become an unconcealed feature of the relationship, rooted in legal, humanitarian, and normative frameworks that Brussels considers central to its identity.For Israel, therefore, the EU represents neither a reliable political ally nor an irrelevant actor. It is an indispensable economic partner coupled with a frequently adversarial diplomatic voice.Navigating this complexity requires abandoning binary expectations.Europe’s waning influence in the Middle East does not signal the end of its regional presence, but it does mark a transformation. The EU is recalibrating its external ambitions under the pressure of internal vulnerabilities and immediate security threats. Whether this recalibration proves temporary or structural remains an open question.What is clear is that Europe’s long-cherished aspiration to act as a global player in the Middle East now faces its most severe test.History shows that geopolitical vacuums rarely remain unfilled. If Europe retreats, others will step forward. The consequences of that shift will not be confined to the region. They will reverberate back toward a continent that once believed its future relevance depended on shaping distant peace.Brussels may still wish to remain in the room. The question is whether it will matter.The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and a professor of European studies and international relations in the Department of Politics and Government at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.