Canada should bet bigger on Mexico - The Globe and Mail

theglobeandmail.com · Feb 16, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Open this photo in gallery:Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, right, and Canada's Minister responsible for Canada–U.S. Trade and Intergovernmental Affairs and One Canadian Economy, Dominic LeBlanc, centre, in Mexico City, on Monday.Henry Romero/ReutersCatherine Fortin LeFaivre is senior vice-president, international policy and global partnerships at the Canadian Chamber of CommerceThis week marks a concrete step in Canada’s relationship with Mexico. Federal minister Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s lead representative on Canada-U.S. trade, will head the largest Team Canada Trade Mission in history to Mexico City, bringing together several hundred Canadian business leaders and officials. This follows the Canada-Mexico Action Plan, an ambitious three-year collaboration launched last September by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Prime Minister Mark Carney, which aims to unlock the untapped potential of their bilateral relationship, including in strategic sectors such as technology, energy, critical minerals and agriculture. We must make sure that these initiatives are backed up with action. Investing more in its relationship with Mexico isn’t just good diplomacy for Canada. It’s smart strategy.Although we often hear of Mexico as Canada’s third-largest trading partner, it only accounts for 1.1 per cent of our exports, or 3.6 per cent of our two-way trade. That’s a striking figure considering that we’ve been partner countries in a continental free-trade agreement for more than 30 years – first through NAFTA and now the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, also referred to as CUSMA – and that we’re relatively close geographically. In fact, Export Development Canada views our trade potential with Mexico as significant and underutilized. So why haven’t we traded more?Rita Trichur: Trump’s threat to sign a bilateral deal with Mexico is so 2018Trade experts will point out that, until recently, Canada simply didn’t need to. We have a behemoth market next door where the language is the same, the culture is familiar, and the business climate has been predictable. But that calculation no longer holds. U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on Canada and threatened more and called the continental trade agreement “irrelevant.” The benefits of CUSMA far outweigh its irritants, and for North America to thrive, the agreement must be preserved when it comes up for review on July 1.But preserving the agreement cannot be Canada’s only plan. Hope isn’t a strategy, and there are forces well beyond our control when it comes to CUSMA’s future. That’s why taking immediate steps to diversify our trade relationships is imperative for Canada’s long-term growth, and even its sovereignty.If Canada succeeds in meeting Mr. Carney’s goal of doubling non-U.S. exports within the next decade, we will be far better positioned to withstand American political and economic pressure. That resilience matters.Turning trade diversification from rhetoric into reality, however, won’t be easy. As Ottawa moves from campaign promises and global speeches toward an actual trade diversification strategy, Canadian businesses, whether they already export or aspire to, will need to decide where to go and how to get there. For small- and medium-sized enterprises, many of which have never seriously considered markets beyond the U.S., the challenge will be particularly acute. Yet with SMEs accounting for 98 per cent of Canadian businesses, bringing them along is essential.Decoder: Mexico has jumped past Canada to become the U.S.’s top customerMexico offers an obvious and underused opportunity. With a population of 133 million, a growing middle class, similar time zones, and a clear openness to deeper collaboration with Canada, it checks many of the boxes. We also benefit from existing geographic and supply-chain connections by rail, road and ports to build upon. Beyond CUSMA, both countries are also signatories to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, creating multiple free-trade pathways that remain surprisingly underutilized. Over the longer term, deeper engagement with Mexico could also serve as a gateway to other promising Latin American markets.In a serious moment of nation-building, Canadian government officials and business leaders alike have a responsibility to ensure that trade diversification efforts are not performative. That means creating the conditions for sustained, long-term growth and paying particular attention to SMEs on both sides that will need early support to identify opportunities and act on them.Strengthening ties with Mexico isn’t only about diversification. It’s also about leverage. With the prospect of an “annual review” scenario for CUSMA – where the agreement remains in force but faces yearly scrutiny through 2036 – uncertainty could further entrench as our new normal. In that environment, Canada would be far better served by a deeper, more resilient partnership with the other party at the table.When considering whether Canada should invest time and effort in renewing CUSMA or instead focus on greater trade diversification, the reality is that Canada can – and should – do both, in partnership with Mexico.