Can Elections Secure Nepal’s Youth Revolution?

Foreign Policy · Feb 24, 2026 · Collected from RSS

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For the past 10 years, Nepal’s prime ministerial role has cycled from aging leader to aging leader. From communist strongmen Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal to the centrist Sher Bahadur Deuba, the trio of leaders strategically took turns to guard the position. In 2026, after the country was convulsed by protests last year, many Nepalis want a decisive shift—and a new generation of leadership. That resolve will be tested at the ballot box on March 5, when Nepal heads into a snap election triggered by the originally peaceful, youth-led anti-corruption protest movement that began in September. The demonstration turned deadly after security forces opened fire on unarmed students, killing around 77 people during the course of two days and leading Oli to resign. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was sworn in to lead the interim government—becoming Nepal’s first female prime minister—on Sept. 12, and the election was called nearly two years ahead of schedule. In 2025, Nepal ranked 109 out of 182 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, and youth unemployment rose slightly to 20.8 percent in 2024. There are growing social and economic inequalities, and limited job prospects push about 2,300 Nepalis abroad for work every day. Those issues bought young Nepalis to the streets—and they still want change. Now, with just weeks remaining until election day, more than 3,400 candidates from some 65 political parties—including dozens of newcomers—are in the race for the 275 seats in the country’s House of Representatives. Many seek to break the dominance of Nepal’s three main parties—Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist, or UML); the Nepali Congress, led by Deuba until last month; and the Nepali Communist Party, a recent merger of 10 communist factions, with Dahal as its coordinator. About 18.9 million people are eligible to vote this year—roughly 900,000 more than the previous election. There are nearly 4 million Nepalis aged between 18-24, many of whom have been politically inspired by the protest movement. “I will go to my village a few days before the election to study more about the candidates, and likely vote for newer candidates with fresh ideas,” said Niyesh Mahat, a 21-year-old student from Nuwakot district, located near Kathmandu. That hope now rests on a new generation of leaders, such as the 35-year-old rapper-turned-Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah, widely known as Balen; and 55-year-old former public servant Kulman Ghising, who ended chronic power cuts; alongside 51-year-old Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) leader Rabi Lamichhane, a TV personality-turned-home minister. These figures are challenging mainstream parties and mobilizing young voters. However, Ghising’s commitment with RSP lasted just 12 days before he returned to his newly formed Ujyalo Nepal Party, underscoring fraught alliances. Shah is a polarizing figure, praised for Kathmandu’s beautification projects and criticized for his harsh stance against street vendors and squatters—but his supporters are already touting him as the next prime minister. His main rival is 73-year-old Oli, who appears to believe himself politically undefeatable despite the protests. Both are contesting from the same constituency in eastern Nepal’s Jhapa district, where Oli has maintained his grip for decades. Oli insists that UML will win and dismisses newcomers as unlikely to be front-runners for the next 20 years. He has repeatedly denied granting orders to shoot young protesters while blaming infiltrators of “spreading falsehoods and confusion” among the masses. Now challenged, the old order seems willing to unite to fend off newcomers. Parties willing to strengthen their agendas have come together since the uprising, including pro-monarchy parties and those in the southern Madhesh region that could play a role in determining a parliamentary majority in a coalition. Meanwhile, UML leaders were keen on courting alliances with the Nepali Congress—the two parties had run a coalition government until September—to secure a majority, though the latter rejected such move. “In the past 30 years, these leaders and their parties have been in power, and they are now worrying that is being challenged,” said political analyst J.B. Biswokarma. “The alliance would be a power-sharing move instead of winning votes by prioritizing social or economic reforms, or state restructuring. This isn’t moral politics at all.” To prioritize reforms, the interim government is already drafting a good governance road map for the newly elected administration. Narayan Adhikari, a country director at the nonprofit Accountability Lab and a member of the drafting committee, said that the governance blueprint is a “departure point from the status quo” and a step toward a “fierce transformation that shatters old patterns.” “As we head to the polls, the public needs a guarantee of a trust-based administration,” he said. “This blueprint outlines how citizens and civil society must act as active partners to build this new system. We are proving that the state can be transparent and compassionate, ensuring Nepal’s next chapter is defined by integrity and the national interest over private gain.” Citing national interest and mounting pressure from young voters, the Nepali Congress—one of the country’s oldest parties—attempted to prove that it can change by staging an internal upheaval in January, as junior leaders challenged party patriarch Deuba. The revolt culminated in a special convention that elected 49-year-old Gagan Thapa—whose career spans from student politics to the national stage—as party president and a prime minster candidate, signaling a generational shift. Biswokarma hopes that fresh faces and new candidates will transform the elite-dominated politics, suggesting that UML could weaken if Oli falls short of his projected strength. Ratings on sites such as Rate My Neta, which allows the public to evaluate their leaders, indicate that Shah, the former Kathmandu mayor, enjoys higher favorability than Oli. The platform has been banned in Nepal, where exit and opinion polls are prohibited during elections, but can be accessed by using virtual private networks. Hopes of change don’t always pay off. The 2022 election stunned Nepal’s political establishment when the newly formed RSP, a centrist reformist party, emerged as the fourth-largest force in the now-dissolved parliament. Its rise reflected public anger at the revolving-door politics controlled by Oli, Deuba, and Dahal—and a hunger for an alternative force. But that optimism was short-lived. Despite holding key ministerial posts in a coalition government, RSP was rocked by allegations over party leader Lamichhane’s dual citizenship with the United States—Nepal doesn’t allow dual citizenship for its citizens—and allegations of fraud, which landed him in jail and eroded public trust. The party’s muted response raised an uncomfortable question: Just how different are the new politicians from the old ones? “We have seen RSP in the past, so we can’t expect a miracle, but we can be cautiously hopeful that they are emerging as an alternative political force challenging the dominance of Nepal’s established political parties,” said Jeevan Sharma, a professor of South Asia and international development at the University of Edinburgh. “RSP has energy, but for it to emerge as a major political force, it would need ideological clarity and need to show its presence beyond cities and urban areas.” RSP pitches itself as a champion of pluralist democracy, economic liberalism, anti-corruption, and inclusive growth—demands raised during the largely Generation Z-led protests last year. However, its proposed elite-backed selections for proportional representation seats have been slammed for echoing the parties that it opposed, forcing some nominees to withdraw. Nepal uses a mixed electoral system where voters directly choose candidates for 165 seats, while the remaining seats are allocated to parties based on their vote shares, ensuring representation of women and marginalized communities. Rakshya Bam, a key leader of the September movement and a coordinator of the Gen Z Front coalition, said that such actions reflect an inherited political culture of patriarchy and corruption. “But at least the new parties listen to the critics and then correct course, unlike the old guards,” she said. “We want people with good intentions in the parliament—those who should strongly represent people’s issues.” However, Biswokarma argues that some new players—including Lamichhane; Shah, Ghising; and Harka Sampang, the outspoken former mayor of the eastern city of Dharan—exhibit populist tendencies similar to their predecessors, with their parties prioritizing individual clout over collective vision. There is also little clarity on their ideologies—while their service delivery has won public praise, critics say that politics should be driven by principle, not just performance. “Populist politics doesn’t bring real sociopolitical reform, but turns certain individuals into leaders by riding on public sentiment,” Biswokarma said. “When that person’s ambition gains legitimacy from the public, it can turn into autocracy. It doesn’t seem that Nepal is headed toward outright autocracy—there is counter-politics—but if populist politics becomes dominant, the danger remains.” Groups such as the Gen Z Front and Gen Z Movement Alliance—some of the several youth collectives born after the September revolt—are trying to make sure that politics doesn’t become business as usual. While some members have joined political parties, including RSP, others plan to back independent and younger candidates or act as election watchdogs. Monika Niroula of the Gen Z Movement Alliance said the uprising has already sparked voices of resistance and demands for internal democracy within established political parties. She is hopeful that the election will bring a