Timeline
February 17, 2026 — February 19, 2026
World
Timeline: US-Iran Crisis Escalates to Brink of War Over Nuclear Program (February 17-19, 2026)
Over three intense days in February 2026, tensions between the United States and Iran escalated dramatically from diplomatic negotiations to the brink of military conflict. As nuclear talks in Geneva stalled, President Trump ordered the largest US military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion, with multiple sources reporting a potential strike could come within days. This timeline tracks how a diplomatic process rapidly deteriorated into a potential major war.
14 events · 3 days · 30 source articles
Sun, Jan 25, 2026
Moderate
US begins military buildup in Jordan
Satellite imagery confirmed that American military assets began deploying to the Muwaffaq Salti air base in Jordan starting January 25. This marked the beginning of what would become the largest concentration of US airpower in the Middle East in over two decades.
Tue, Feb 17, 2026
Major
Massive US military buildup intensifies before Geneva talks
CNN reported that the United States was significantly increasing air and naval forces in the Middle East ahead of scheduled Tuesday talks with Iran in Geneva. US Air Force assets from the UK, including tankers and fighter jets, were repositioned closer to the region. Multiple military units scheduled for rotation were ordered to remain in place, and additional air defense systems were being deployed to Jordan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The buildup was designed both to intimidate Tehran and provide strike options if negotiations failed.
Tue, Feb 17, 2026
Moderate
USS Abraham Lincoln positioned near Iranian waters
BBC Verify confirmed using satellite imagery that the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was positioned in proximity to Iran. This naval deployment complemented the massive air assets being moved into the region, creating a formidable military presence in the Strait of Hormuz.
Tue, Feb 17, 2026
Major
Iran launches missiles toward Strait of Hormuz as Khamenei threatens US warships
Iran escalated tensions by launching live missiles toward the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a stark warning that while US warships deployed in the Gulf were "dangerous weapons," Iran possessed "even more dangerous" weapons capable of sinking them. These military demonstrations occurred simultaneously with diplomatic negotiations in Geneva, highlighting the fragile balance between military posturing and peace efforts.
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Major
Geneva talks conclude without progress
The second round of negotiations between US and Iranian officials in Geneva ended without achieving meaningful progress on Iran's nuclear program. Vice President JD Vance warned that while Trump desired a deal with Tehran, he could decide that diplomacy "had reached its end." The failure of these talks shifted momentum toward military options.
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Major
Sources report 90% probability of war within days
Axios reported that the Trump administration was closer to a major war with Iran than most Americans realized, with one Trump adviser estimating a 90% probability of war. Sources indicated that any military operation would be a multi-week campaign conducted jointly with Israel, far exceeding the scope of the recent Venezuela operation. Israel was reportedly preparing for war to break out within days.
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Major
Largest wave of US fighter jets deployed to Middle East
ItaMilRadar monitoring revealed an unprecedented concentration of American airpower heading to the Middle East, including multiple F-22 Raptors, approximately 36 F-16 Fighting Falcons, six Boeing E-3 Sentry early warning aircraft, and a U-2 Dragon Lady spy plane. This represented the largest deployment of US air assets since the 2003 Iraq invasion.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
USS Gerald Ford passes Gibraltar, heading to Middle East
A second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, was observed passing through the Strait of Gibraltar with its accompanying battle group. The carrier was expected to arrive within striking range of Iran within days, doubling US carrier presence in the region and transforming what had been a deterrent posture into what analysts described as a clear operational assault configuration.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
White House told military ready to strike by Saturday
CBS News reported that senior US national security officials informed President Trump that the military would be ready to attack Iran as early as Saturday, February 21. However, Trump had not yet made a final decision on whether to authorize strikes. The White House confirmed "dynamic and ongoing" discussions about military action were taking place.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Israel enters maximum alert status
Israeli security and emergency services went on maximum alert as officials assessed an imminent US attack on Iran was possible. The Israeli security cabinet meeting was postponed to Sunday to avoid miscalculation. Israeli officials estimated that a prolonged joint US-Israeli operation targeting Iran's ballistic missiles and potentially the regime itself could begin imminently, with expected retaliation from Houthi rebels and possibly Hezbollah.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
White House acknowledges "many arguments" for striking Iran
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated publicly that there were "many reasons and arguments that one could make for a strike against Iran," while maintaining that diplomacy remained Trump's first option. She added that it would be "very wise" for Iran to make a deal with the president. The statement represented the most explicit public acknowledgment yet that military action was under serious consideration.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
Oil prices surge on war fears
Global oil prices experienced their largest increase since October 2025, with Brent crude jumping 4.3% as markets reacted to reports that American military intervention in Iran could occur sooner than anticipated. The spike reflected concerns about potential disruption to Middle Eastern oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
European citizens urged to leave Iran
Multiple European nations issued warnings for their citizens to leave Iran immediately as the military situation deteriorated. Wall Street Journal confirmed that the US had assembled the largest air force concentration in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion, though Trump had not yet decided on final strike objectives or whether to proceed.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Trump issues 10-day ultimatum at first "Board of Peace" meeting
At the inaugural meeting of his "Board of Peace" in Washington, President Trump issued what appeared to be a 10-day deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear deal, warning that "otherwise bad things happen." Trump referenced his previous June 2025 strike on Iran and stated the US "may have to take it a step further" within the next 10 days. He emphasized that Iran "must make a deal" or face consequences, making clear that military options remained on the table.
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