Timeline
February 15, 2026 — February 20, 2026
Business
Timeline: How US-Iran Nuclear Tensions Escalated Over 6 Days
This timeline tracks the rapid escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran from mid-February 2026, beginning with anticipation of nuclear talks and escalating to threats of military action. The crisis significantly impacted global oil markets, with crude prices jumping over 4% in a single day, while President Trump issued ultimatums and deployed substantial military assets to the region.
11 events · 4 days · 30 source articles
Sun, Feb 15, 2026
Minor
Oil markets steady as traders await US-Iran nuclear talks
Oil prices remained relatively stable as markets monitored geopolitical risk ahead of scheduled talks between the United States and Iran set to resume on Tuesday. The calm before negotiations reflected cautious optimism among traders about potential diplomatic progress.
Tue, Feb 17, 2026
Moderate
Trump ramps up threats against Iran ahead of Geneva talks
President Donald Trump warned Iran of the 'consequences of not making a deal' just before US and Iranian envoys were scheduled to meet in Geneva. West Texas Intermediate oil rose more than 1% to near $64 per barrel, while Brent crude eased slightly to just under $69. Markets were subdued due to Lunar New Year holidays across Asia.
Tue, Feb 17, 2026
Moderate
Oil drops as US and Iran signal progress in nuclear negotiations
Oil prices held a drop after the United States and Iran struck a positive tone following their talks in Geneva over Iran's nuclear program. The improved diplomatic atmosphere temporarily reduced crude's risk premium as markets interpreted the signals as potential de-escalation.
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Minor
Asian markets rise despite AI worries; oil fluctuates after talks
Asian stocks pushed higher on Wednesday with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising 1.4% and snapping a three-day selloff, while oil prices fluctuated after Iran touted progress in nuclear negotiations with the United States. Multiple major Asian markets remained closed for Lunar New Year holidays.
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Major
Oil surges 4% as reports suggest imminent US-Iran military conflict
WTI crude oil surged 4.42% to $65.01 per barrel while Brent crude climbed 3.90% to $69.01 after reports emerged of a dramatic US military buildup near Iran. The deployment included two aircraft carriers, 12 warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and over 150 US military cargo flights transporting weapons systems. Energy traders priced in potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
Markets show unnerving calm despite Iran military threat
Bloomberg noted the unsettling market calm around the risk of a potential US attack on Iran, with traders closely watching oil prices as the key indicator of escalation risk. Analysts suggested any US moves to destroy Iranian oil infrastructure appeared unlikely given the Trump administration's stated focus on bringing energy prices down.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Oil extends gains on reports of faster-than-expected US intervention
Oil prices continued climbing on reports that a US intervention in Iran could come sooner than expected, even as US equity futures fell after a tech-led stock rally. The escalating tensions overshadowed other market news including OpenAI's financing deal worth over $100 billion.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Oil hits seven-month high; gold reaches $5,000 as Iran tensions flare
Oil prices jumped to their highest level in nearly seven months, with Brent crude rising 1.6% to $71.49 per barrel and US crude up 1.74% to $66.18. This followed a 4% surge the previous day, marking the biggest single-day jump since October. Gold reclaimed $5,000 per troy ounce as investors sought safe havens. US Vice President JD Vance indicated Iranian negotiators had not acknowledged President Trump's 'red lines' in negotiations.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
Military buildup suggests possible regime change effort
The deployment of US aircraft and naval vessels in the Middle East increased concerns that the United States might attempt to overthrow the Tehran regime despite recent negotiations. Analysts noted that de-escalation appeared increasingly distant following the military buildup, with oil settling at $66.43 per barrel, up 1.9%.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Wall Street sold off as Iran attack fears grip markets
US stocks declined sharply with the Dow Jones dropping 268 points, the S&P 500 falling 0.28%, and the Nasdaq sliding 0.31% as traders worried about a potential Iran attack. President Trump kept markets on edge about his intentions, despite US intelligence confirming Iran was not developing nuclear weapons. Trump stated he 'may have to take it a step further, or we may not,' leaving his plans ambiguous.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Trump issues 15-day deadline for Iran nuclear deal
Oil steadied near a six-month high as President Donald Trump announced that Iran had at most 15 days to strike a deal over its nuclear program. The ultimatum represented a significant escalation in pressure tactics and set a concrete timeline for potential military action if negotiations failed.
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