Timeline
February 19, 2026 — February 20, 2026
Business
Timeline: How US-Iran Nuclear Tensions Escalated Over 48 Hours in February 2026
In mid-February 2026, tensions between the United States and Iran rapidly escalated following failed nuclear negotiations in Geneva. Over just two days, the crisis moved from diplomatic talks to military posturing, triggering major market reactions including oil prices hitting six-month highs and gold surpassing $5,000 per ounce. This timeline tracks the hour-by-hour progression of events that brought the world to the brink of potential military conflict.
12 events · 1 days · 30 source articles
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Major
US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations in Geneva Fail to Produce Breakthrough
US and Iranian envoys met in Geneva for negotiations on Iran's disputed nuclear program, but talks failed to achieve a breakthrough. Vice President JD Vance stated that Iranian negotiators did not acknowledge President Trump's 'red lines' in the negotiations. The lack of progress set the stage for escalating tensions.
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Major
US Announces Military Force Remains Option Against Iran
Following the failed Geneva talks, the United States announced that the use of military force against Iran remained on the table as an option. The statement marked a significant hardening of the US position and triggered immediate market reactions. This announcement came despite the US intelligence community confirming Iran was not currently developing nuclear weapons.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Oil Prices Surge Over 4.5% in Biggest Jump Since October
US crude futures rose more than 4.5%, or $2.79, settling at $65.05 a barrel, marking the biggest daily jump since October 23. West Texas Intermediate crude approached its highest level of 2026. The dramatic increase reflected market fears about potential military action affecting Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
Markets Show 'Unnerving Calm' Despite Iran Attack Risk
Bloomberg reported that the calm in markets around the risk of a potential US attack on Iran was 'unnerving,' suggesting traders may have been underestimating the severity of the situation. The observation highlighted a disconnect between geopolitical risks and investor sentiment.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Reports Emerge That US Military Intervention Could Come Sooner Than Expected
Oil extended gains on reports that a US intervention in Iran could come sooner than anticipated. The deployment of US aircraft carriers and naval vessels to the Middle East increased the likelihood of potential military action or an attempt to overthrow the Tehran regime, despite recent diplomatic efforts.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Gold Reclaims $5,000 Per Ounce as Safe-Haven Demand Surges
Gold prices rose 2% and reclaimed the $5,000 per troy ounce level as investors sought safe-haven assets amid mounting uncertainty. The surge in gold prices, typically considered a hedge against geopolitical instability, signaled deep market concerns about the escalating crisis.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
Oil Reaches Nearly Seven-Month High as Tensions Continue to Flare
Brent crude rose 1.6% to $71.49 per barrel, while US crude climbed 1.74% to $66.18 per barrel, reaching their highest levels in nearly seven months. The continued price increases reflected growing market fears about potential disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
President Trump Issues 15-Day Deadline for Iran Nuclear Deal
President Trump announced that Iran had 15 days at most to strike a deal over its nuclear program, warning that otherwise 'really bad things' would happen. The ultimatum represented a significant escalation and put a specific timeframe on the crisis, intensifying market nervousness.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
US Stock Markets Sell Off on Iran Attack Fears
Wall Street experienced significant declines with the Dow Jones dropping 268 points (-0.54%), S&P 500 falling 0.28%, and Nasdaq sliding 0.31%. The sell-off reflected investor anxiety about potential military conflict as President Trump kept markets 'dangling' about whether he intended to carry out an attack on Iran.
Fri, Feb 20, 2026
Moderate
Oil Stabilizes Near Six-Month High as Markets Digest Trump Ultimatum
Oil prices steadied near their six-month highs following Trump's 15-day deadline. Analysts noted that with de-escalation appearing increasingly difficult after the US military buildup in the region, the key question became what type of action the US might take.
Fri, Feb 20, 2026
Moderate
Oil Heads for First Weekly Gain Since January
Crude oil prices were on course for their first weekly increase after three consecutive weekly losses. Brent crude traded at $72.08 per barrel and WTI at $66.89, both maintaining elevated levels. Energy analysts assessed whether the oil market could absorb a potential loss of Iranian barrels.
Fri, Feb 20, 2026
Minor
Silver and Other Safe-Haven Assets Rise on Sustained Tensions
Beyond gold, other safe-haven assets including silver experienced price increases as US-Iran tensions continued to drive demand. The broadening of safe-haven buying indicated sustained market concern about the geopolitical situation and potential for military conflict.
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