Timeline
February 15, 2026 — February 21, 2026
World
Timeline: How U.S.-Iran Crisis Escalated from Sanctions to Brink of War in 7 Days
Between February 15-21, 2026, tensions between the United States and Iran rapidly escalated from new oil sanctions to massive military buildup and threats of imminent attack. What began as economic pressure evolved into the largest U.S. military deployment to the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion, with officials citing a 90% probability of military action. This timeline tracks the week when diplomatic negotiations and war preparations proceeded simultaneously.
13 events · 7 days · 24 source articles
Sun, Feb 15, 2026
Major
U.S. and Israel Agree to Intensify Pressure on Iranian Oil Exports to China
President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu met at the White House and agreed to pursue maximum pressure against Iran, particularly targeting oil sales to China, which accounts for over 80% of Iran's oil exports. This economic strategy aimed to force Tehran into concessions during ongoing nuclear negotiations mediated by Oman. The move represented a significant escalation in economic warfare against Iran's primary revenue source.
Sun, Feb 15, 2026
Moderate
Second Round of U.S.-Iran Negotiations Scheduled for Switzerland
Switzerland confirmed it would host the next round of indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva, with Oman serving as diplomatic mediator. Despite declared readiness for a deal, Washington continued building military forces in the Middle East. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the U.S. needed sufficient power to ensure Iran 'doesn't make a mistake.'
Tue, Feb 17, 2026
Major
Iran Offers to Halt Uranium Enrichment and Transfer Stockpiles to Russia
During Geneva negotiations, Iran's delegation expressed willingness to suspend uranium enrichment for up to three years and transfer part of its uranium stockpiles to another country, possibly Russia. Iranian diplomats also indicated readiness to begin business relations with the U.S. This represented a significant diplomatic overture from Tehran, though it came amid growing military tensions.
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Major
U.S. Military Buildup Suggests Weeks-Long Air Campaign Capability
American publication TWZ reported that the volume of military equipment being transferred to the Middle East indicated a potential operation lasting weeks, not days. The deployment included many capabilities necessary for a sustained air campaign. A second aircraft carrier strike group was approaching the region, and dozens of advanced fighters had been repositioned.
Wed, Feb 18, 2026
Major
Trump Adviser Cites 90% Probability of Military Operation
An unnamed adviser to President Trump told Axios that the probability of a major U.S. military operation against Iran in the coming weeks reached 90%. Simultaneously, Iran began fortifying nuclear bunkers, decentralizing command structures, and deploying naval forces in preparation for potential conflict. Iranian officials viewed this as the most serious military threat since 1988.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Largest U.S. Air Force Deployment Since 2003 Iraq Invasion Confirmed
The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. was concentrating the largest aviation group in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Advanced F-35 and F-22 fighters continued arriving, along with command-and-control aircraft crucial for coordinating major air operations and critical air defense systems. The second carrier strike group, USS Gerald Ford, was passing Gibraltar en route to the region.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
Russian Foreign Minister Warns of Nuclear Incident Risk
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that new U.S. strikes on Iran could have negative consequences for the entire region and Russia. He noted that previous Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities under IAEA control had created real risks of a nuclear incident, undermining the authority of international institutions.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Major
Pentagon Informs White House of Weekend Strike Readiness
CNN and other U.S. media reported that the Pentagon had informed the White House that American military forces would be ready to conduct operations by the weekend if ordered by the president. However, President Trump had not yet given indications of a final decision. The U.S. continued both military preparations and diplomatic negotiations simultaneously.
Thu, Feb 19, 2026
Moderate
U.S. Begins Evacuating Non-Essential Personnel from Middle East Bases
The U.S. Department of Defense began withdrawing military personnel from bases in the Middle East, primarily to Europe and the U.S., as a precautionary measure in case of attack on Iran or potential Iranian retaliation. Pentagon sources stated these movements were standard procedure when the use of force was being considered, though the scale of naval deployment was exceptional.
Fri, Feb 20, 2026
Major
Trump Gives Iran 10-15 Day Ultimatum for Agreement
President Trump announced at the inaugural 'Peace Council' meeting in Washington that Iran's leadership had 10-15 days to conclude a deescalation agreement. If Tehran refused, 'bad things' would happen, Trump warned. U.S. officials indicated they might authorize a limited strike first to convince Iranian authorities of the need for concessions before proceeding to full-scale operations aimed at regime change.
Sat, Feb 21, 2026
Major
U.S. Reportedly Considers Targeting Iranian Supreme Leader
Axios reported that the United States was examining options including the elimination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his son Mojtaba. An unnamed Trump adviser stated that the U.S. had options for every scenario, though even Trump himself hadn't decided which would ultimately be chosen. This option had allegedly been presented to the president several weeks earlier.
Sat, Feb 21, 2026
Major
Diplomatic Sources Report Iran and U.S. Sliding Toward Military Conflict
Reuters reported that Iran and the U.S. were rapidly sliding toward military conflict as hopes for diplomatic resolution over Tehran's nuclear program faded. Officials from both sides, along with Gulf and European diplomats, confirmed that Iran's neighbors and Israel now considered conflict more likely than settlement. Gulf states were preparing for possible spillover effects.
Sat, Feb 21, 2026
Moderate
Experts Warn of Catastrophic Consequences of U.S. Attack on Iran
The New York Times published analysis from international experts warning that a potential U.S. military operation against Iran would be more protracted and dangerous than recent actions in Venezuela. Experts called for caution, citing Iran's powerful defensive capabilities and extensive regional influence network. Chatham House's Middle East director emphasized Iran's capacity for retaliation across the region.
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