
In late February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran that rapidly escalated into a major regional conflict. The war, which began on February 28, killed Iran's supreme leader, triggered retaliatory strikes across the Middle East, effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, and sent global oil markets into chaos. This timeline tracks the conflict's progression and its cascading economic impacts.
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The second round of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran concluded on February 17 without achieving any progress. This breakdown in diplomacy set the stage for the military escalation that would follow. Following the failed talks, the U.S. began significantly increasing its military presence in the region.
The third and final round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States took place in Geneva on February 26 under the Trump administration. These negotiations were viewed as the last chance to strike a diplomatic deal, but they ended without agreement, paving the way for military action.
The United States and Israel launched coordinated missile attacks on Iran, marking the beginning of a dramatic escalation in the region. The initial strikes targeted and killed Iran's top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several senior officials. This attack represented a major turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics and triggered immediate Iranian retaliation.
Iran responded to the US-Israel attacks with widespread counterattacks using missiles and drones, rapidly spreading conflict across the Middle East. Several Middle Eastern countries sustained damage from these strikes, with some reporting casualties. Key embassies, economic centers, and transportation routes were closed, and tens of thousands of flights were cancelled as the conflict escalated.
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial shipping amid its war with the United States and Israel. Maritime traffic through the strait, which normally carries around one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supply, came nearly to a halt as ship captains feared attacks. This closure began disrupting global supply chains for energy and vital daily goods.
A UAE-flagged tugboat experienced an explosion that sparked a fire before sinking in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, March 5. Three Indonesian crew members went missing. Local authorities launched an investigation into the incident, which highlighted the dangers facing vessels attempting to navigate the strategic waterway during the conflict.
Israeli forces conducted a significant strike on fuel storage facilities in Tehran that Iran uses to operate military infrastructure. The attack sent pillars of fire into the night sky and appeared to be the first time a civilian industrial facility had been targeted in the war. The Israeli Air Force described it as an additional layer in damaging Iranian military infrastructure.
A US airstrike damaged an Iranian desalination plant on Qeshm Island, according to Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. He warned that "the US set this precedent, not Iran" in targeting critical water infrastructure. Such facilities are essential for drinking water supplies in the parched Gulf region, marking an escalation to civilian infrastructure targets.
Two border guards in Kuwait were killed when a swarm of Iranian missiles and drones hit the Gulf country. The attacks demonstrated Iran's willingness to strike US allies and partners throughout the region in retaliation for the US-Israeli campaign.
US President Donald Trump threatened additional military strikes against Iran, saying Tehran had "apologized and surrendered to its Middle East neighbors" after sustained US and Israeli attacks. Trump warned Iran would be hit "very hard" again as additional targets were under consideration, signaling the conflict would continue.
The Iranian military used drones to strike the American Camp Arifjan base in Kuwait, along with ammunition depots and air defense systems. Iran also targeted designated locations in the Israeli cities of Haifa and Tel Aviv, including hitting the Haifa oil refinery with Kheibarshekan missiles in retaliation for attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
Iran struck a desalination plant in Bahrain in apparent retaliation for US targeting of similar infrastructure in Iran. The attack on critical water infrastructure in the desert Gulf state escalated concerns about civilian targets and the expanding geographic scope of the conflict.
Israel struck southern Lebanon and Beirut early Sunday morning, killing 12 more people according to the Lebanese health ministry. Israeli officials said the strikes targeted commanders of the Lebanese branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised "many surprises" for the next phase of the conflict.
Oil prices surged above $90 per barrel as the conflict entered its second week. Iraq's oil production collapsed by about 60% due to a lack of tankers able to load crude, while Saudi Aramco shares jumped the most since May 2023. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure suspended almost a fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supply, creating chaos in energy markets.
The conflict's economic impact expanded far beyond oil markets. China faced disruptions to critical sulphur imports needed for fertilizer production during its spring planting season, with 47% of its sulphur coming through the now-closed Strait of Hormuz. Chinese investors worried about supplies of everything from saffron (90% from Iran) to pharmaceuticals. The US job market also showed weakness with unexpected job losses in February, creating political pressure on President Trump ahead of midterm elections.