Scorecard: AI Prediction Accurately Forecasts Spanish Doctors Strike Participation and Public Debate

Recap of Predictions

Eight days ago, an AI system analyzed the emerging Spanish doctors' strike and made six specific predictions with varying confidence levels. The core forecast centered on strong participation in planned strike weeks (February 16-20 and March 16-20), intensifying public debate about healthcare conditions, potential government concessions, regional fragmentation of negotiations, strike extension beyond June, and political pressure on Health Minister Mónica García.

What Actually Happened

The recent news coverage from February 16-22 provides substantial evidence for evaluating the AI's near-term predictions. Multiple regional reports confirm the strike proceeded as scheduled during the February 16-20 timeframe, with significant impacts across Spanish autonomous communities. ### Strike Participation: A Clear Win The AI's first prediction—strong participation in the February strike week—proved accurate. Articles from Castilla y León reported 20% participation rates (Articles 5, 15), while the Canary Islands saw disputed figures ranging from 15% (government) to 63% (medical unions) (Article 12). The strike generated measurable service disruptions: over 2,000 cancelled consultations daily in León (Article 2), more than 1,000 consultations and 52 operations suspended in Salamanca (Article 7), and emptied hospitals in the Canaries (Article 14). The strike concluded on February 20 as planned, with doctors in Zaragoza marching on the final day (Article 3) and León physicians already "rearmed for March" (Article 2), suggesting continued mobilization capacity. ### Public Debate Intensifies The AI's third prediction about intensifying public debate also materialized rapidly. Multiple major Spanish newspapers published editorials specifically about the doctors' strike (Articles 11, 13), indicating the issue had risen to editorial-board attention. Coverage highlighted core physician grievances: doctors in Menorca protested 24-hour shifts (Article 4), professionals cited impossible work-life balance driving them to private practice (Article 3), and the emotional framing "La vocación tiene un límite" ("Vocation has a limit") appeared in headlines (Article 1). Significantly, Article 6 noted that Córdoba doctors received support from students and citizens, demonstrating the strike was generating broader public engagement beyond the medical profession. ### Too Early to Judge Medium-Term Predictions The AI's predictions about government concessions (Event 2), regional negotiations (Event 4), strike extension beyond June (Event 5), and pressure on Minister García (Event 6) all had timeframes of 2-4 months. With only 8 days elapsed since the prediction, there's insufficient evidence to evaluate these forecasts. However, Article 2's mention of doctors being "rearmed for March" suggests the campaign continues as the AI anticipated.

What the AI Got Right

The AI demonstrated strong analytical capabilities in two key areas: 1. **Organizational assessment**: By correctly interpreting pre-strike signals (Madrid demonstrations, multi-regional mobilization, government preparation of minimum services), the AI accurately predicted high strike participation. 2. **Media dynamics**: The forecast that strikes would elevate public conversation proved prescient, with editorial coverage and supportive citizen engagement materializing within the first week. 3. **Temporal precision**: The AI correctly identified the specific February 16-20 timeframe for strike activity.

Limitations and Lessons

The main limitation is temporal—most predictions remain untestable after just 8 days. The AI appropriately assigned different timeframes to different predictions, showing sophistication in understanding that government responses and political pressure develop more slowly than strike participation. One notable aspect is the regional variation in participation rates (15-63% depending on source and region), which the AI didn't explicitly predict but which validates its forecast about potential regional fragmentation (Event 4).

Conclusion

For predictions that can be evaluated at this early stage, the AI performed impressively. It correctly forecast strike timing, participation strength, service disruptions, and rapid escalation of public debate. The real test will come in the following months as we can assess whether government concessions, regional negotiations, and political pressures materialize as predicted. Based on available evidence, the AI demonstrated solid understanding of labor mobilization dynamics and media attention patterns in the Spanish healthcare context.