Turkish Femicide Cases Point to Systemic Failures in Domestic Violence Prevention

7 predicted events · 20 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

Current Situation: Two Tragic Femicides Highlight Turkey's Ongoing Crisis

Turkey faces mounting scrutiny over its handling of domestic violence following two separate femicide cases that have shocked the nation in late February 2026. The incidents—one in Çatalca and another in Arnavutköy, both districts of Istanbul—reveal disturbing patterns in how domestic violence escalates to lethal outcomes despite warning signs. ### The Çatalca Case: Gülten Ürkmez On February 21, 2026, Gülten Ürkmez was shot dead at a bus stop in Çatalca's Binkılıç Atatürk neighborhood by her husband, S.Ü., who had been drinking heavily (Articles 1-9). The couple had been married since 1999 and experienced persistent conflict throughout their relationship. According to Article 2, Gülten's sister Olcay İnce stated that "there was always unrest, always fighting" and that Gülten had been threatened, though it remains unclear whether the threats were directed at her or their children. The attack occurred in broad daylight at approximately 1:00 PM while Gülten waited for a bus to visit the dentist. S.Ü. approached her at the empty bus stop and shot her in the head at point-blank range. He then fled on a motorcycle before being apprehended by gendarme forces. Security camera footage captured his escape. ### The Arnavutköy Case: Filiz Şağbangül Just days earlier, on February 17, 2026, another tragedy unfolded in Arnavutköy's İslambey neighborhood. Filiz Şağbangül (32) was stabbed to death by her husband Kıyasettin Ş. in front of their three children, all under age 12 (Articles 11-20). According to Article 11, Filiz had been living in a shelter due to "severe incompatibility" and was in the process of divorcing her husband. She had only recently returned to the family home to spend Ramadan with her children. The attack occurred around 1:00 AM following an argument. Neighbors reported hearing fighting, followed by one of the children screaming for help from the balcony (Article 18). Kıyasettin Ş. calmly left the scene after the murder and later turned himself in to police. Security footage showed him walking away with chilling composure.

Key Trends and Systemic Failures

### Pattern of Known Risk Factors Both cases exhibit classic risk factors for intimate partner homicide: - **Long-term domestic violence**: The Ürkmez marriage showed 27 years of conflict - **Separation attempts**: Filiz was actively seeking divorce and had used shelter services - **Substance abuse**: S.Ü. was described as a chronic alcohol user - **Prior threats**: Both victims had experienced threats or intimidation - **Access to weapons**: Both perpetrators obtained lethal weapons despite known risks ### Inadequate Protection Mechanisms Filiz Şağbangül's case is particularly revealing. Despite being in a shelter and pursuing divorce—clear indicators of high risk—she returned home and was killed within days. This suggests either inadequate risk assessment, lack of monitoring after shelter departure, or insufficient support to maintain safe separation. ### Public Nature of Violence Gülten Ürkmez was murdered in a public space during daytime, while Filiz Şağbangül was killed with children present as witnesses. These circumstances indicate perpetrators felt emboldened to commit extreme violence without fear of immediate intervention or severe consequences.

Predictions: What Happens Next

### Legal Proceedings and Sentencing Both cases will proceed through Turkey's criminal justice system over the coming months. Based on Turkish femicide prosecution patterns, we can expect: **Prediction 1**: Both perpetrators will likely face aggravated life imprisonment charges under Article 82 of the Turkish Penal Code for premeditated murder. However, defense attorneys may argue for sentence reductions based on "unjust provocation" or claims of diminished capacity—tactics that have historically reduced sentences in femicide cases despite public outcry. **Prediction 2**: The Arnavutköy case involving three child witnesses will likely receive additional charges related to child trauma and endangerment, potentially resulting in a harsher sentence. The perpetrator's act of surrendering may be presented as "remorse" to seek leniency. ### Public Response and Activism These cases arrive amid Turkey's ongoing debate over the Istanbul Convention, which the country withdrew from in 2021 despite protests. **Prediction 3**: Women's rights organizations will use these cases to intensify pressure on the Turkish government to strengthen domestic violence prevention measures. Expect protests in major cities within the next 2-4 weeks, particularly on March 8 (International Women's Day). **Prediction 4**: Social media campaigns featuring the hashtags related to both victims' names will trend, joining the broader "#KadınlarÖldürülüyor" (Women Are Being Killed) movement. These campaigns will demand systematic reform rather than case-by-case responses. ### Policy and Institutional Changes The systemic failures evident in both cases—particularly Filiz's murder after leaving a shelter—will force uncomfortable questions about Turkey's protective infrastructure. **Prediction 5**: Within 3-6 months, there will be internal reviews of shelter protocols and post-departure monitoring procedures. However, meaningful reform will likely face resistance due to resource constraints and political will. **Prediction 6**: Local authorities in Istanbul will face pressure to implement enhanced protective measures, including potential electronic monitoring of high-risk offenders and emergency response protocols for domestic violence calls. Implementation timeline: 6-12 months if pursued. ### The Three Orphaned Children The children who witnessed their mother's murder in Arnavutköy face profound trauma and an uncertain future. **Prediction 7**: Custody arrangements will likely place the children with maternal family members, as the father will be incarcerated. Psychological support services will be mandated by the court, though quality and duration of such services remain questionable given Turkey's limited mental health infrastructure for trauma victims.

Broader Implications

These cases represent not isolated incidents but symptoms of a deeper crisis. Turkey recorded over 300 femicides in 2025 according to women's rights monitoring groups. Without comprehensive reform—including weapon access restrictions, mandatory intervention protocols, judicial training to prevent sentence reductions, and adequately funded shelters with follow-up services—the cycle will continue. The coming months will test whether these tragedies catalyze meaningful change or become statistics in Turkey's ongoing femicide crisis. The government's response, both in prosecuting these specific cases and in addressing systemic vulnerabilities, will signal whether women's safety is treated as a political priority or remained sidelined despite mounting casualties.