Trump's Board of Peace: Billion-Dollar Pledges Meet Harsh Gaza Reality—What Happens Next

6 predicted events · 20 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The Grand Vision Meets Ground-Level Skepticism

Donald Trump's Board of Peace held its inaugural meeting on February 19-20, 2026, gathering representatives from nearly 50 countries with ambitious promises to rebuild Gaza and bring lasting peace to the Middle East. According to Article 10, nine member nations pledged $7 billion toward Gaza reconstruction, with the U.S. adding another $10 billion—though the source of American funding remains unspecified and would likely require Congressional approval. Yet as diplomats gathered in Washington's renamed U.S. Institute of Peace, a stark disconnect emerged between the optimistic rhetoric and the deteriorating situation on the ground.

The Current Reality: A Ceasefire in Name Only

Four months after Trump declared a ceasefire in October 2025, Article 1 reports that violence continues throughout Gaza. Israeli forces maintain military control over approximately half of the territory, conducting ongoing operations and demolitions. As recently as the day before the Board meeting, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 11-12 Palestinians in what Hamas labeled a "massacre." DR's Middle East correspondent notes that for Palestinians in Gaza, the ceasefire merely means "death tolls are rising more slowly than before." Article 6 captures the prevailing sentiment among Gaza's displaced population: deep skepticism. Amal Joudeh, a 43-year-old mother of eight living in a tent in Deir el-Balah, expressed what many feel: "I've heard about money being collected for Gaza, but we see nothing. This has happened many times, but nothing ever changes."

The Unresolved Core Challenge: Hamas Disarmament

The elephant in the room—barely addressed at the Board meeting—is the fundamental precondition for reconstruction: Hamas must disarm. Article 18 identifies this as "a sticking point that threatens to delay or even derail" the entire plan. Article 16 notes that the U.S., Israel, and several Arab countries oppose funding reconstruction while Hamas remains armed. This creates an impossible sequencing problem: reconstruction funds are pledged but cannot flow until Hamas disarms, yet Hamas is unlikely to disarm while Israeli forces continue operations and Palestinians remain in desperate humanitarian conditions. Article 19 bluntly states that "the diplomacy to get to the reconstruction and governance phase of the ceasefire just isn't taking place at the moment."

International Participation: Notable Absences

While the Board includes Israel and several Arab states, Article 2 reveals that "only one Palestinian was present" at the gathering—a striking absence for a plan supposedly centered on Palestinian welfare. Major European nations remain "wary," with Article 7 noting that countries like the United Kingdom sent only observers due to concerns about potential Russian involvement. The troop commitments, while symbolic, are modest. Article 4 identifies Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Albania as pledging forces for a 20,000-strong International Stabilization Force, with Egypt and Jordan committed to training police. However, no timeline for deployment was provided.

Predictions: Three Likely Scenarios

### 1. Implementation Paralysis and Pledges Unfulfilled The most likely near-term outcome is that the $7-17 billion in pledges will remain largely uncommitted. Article 18 notes these funds represent "a small fraction of the estimated $70 billion needed to rebuild" Gaza. Without Hamas disarmament—which appears nowhere close to reality—donors will hesitate to transfer funds, citing the precondition. Within 2-3 months, we'll likely see announcements of "delays" and "technical challenges" rather than actual reconstruction beginning. ### 2. Escalation in Gaza and Regional Tensions The fragile ceasefire appears unsustainable. Article 12 quotes Palestine's UN envoy stating bluntly: "There is no peace anywhere, anytime." With Israeli forces controlling half of Gaza and conducting ongoing operations, Palestinian frustration will mount. The combination of continued military operations, unmet humanitarian needs, and unfulfilled reconstruction promises creates conditions for renewed violence within 1-2 months. Simultaneously, Article 13 reveals Trump's suggestion of "possible U.S. military action against Iran over the next 10 days," with Article 14 reporting that military officials have told the president forces are ready for strikes "as soon as this weekend." Any U.S.-Iran escalation would immediately overshadow and potentially derail the Gaza initiative. ### 3. The Board's Expanding—and Diluting—Mandate Article 16 notes that Trump's vision for the Board "has quickly expanded into a more ambitious mandate: bringing lasting peace to not just the Middle East but the whole world." This mission creep—already evident with FIFA's involvement in planning football projects per Article 8—suggests the Board may evolve into a general-purpose diplomatic forum competing with the UN. This expansion will paradoxically reduce focus on Gaza's specific needs. Article 10 reports Trump's promise to bring the UN "back to health" and hints at changes to its headquarters, signaling his intent to position the Board as a rival institution. Within 3-6 months, expect the Board to announce initiatives on other conflicts, further diluting attention and resources for Gaza.

The Gap Between Rhetoric and Reality

Trump declared at the meeting that "the war in Gaza is over" aside from "little flames," according to Article 12. This jarring disconnect with the continuing violence, unmet humanitarian needs, and unresolved political questions suggests the Board of Peace may become another layer of international bureaucracy producing announcements rather than solutions. For Gaza's two million residents, most displaced and living in tents amid rubble, the promised billions remain as distant as peace itself.