South Australia's Political Earthquake: Liberal Collapse Could Reshape Australian Conservative Politics

8 predicted events · 9 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The Unfolding Catastrophe

South Australia stands on the precipice of a political transformation that could fundamentally alter the landscape of Australian conservative politics. With the state election scheduled for March 21, 2026, multiple polls paint a picture of unprecedented Liberal Party collapse, with One Nation emerging as the primary opposition to Labor. According to Articles 1-7, a YouGov-Advertiser poll shows Labor commanding 37% of the primary vote, One Nation at 22%, and the Liberals trailing at just 20%. More alarmingly, Article 8 reveals a Newspoll conducted February 11-17 that places the Liberals at a catastrophic 14% primary vote, while Labor soars to 44% and One Nation captures 24%. This represents what pollsters describe as potentially the worst result for the conservative side of politics since self-government began in 1857.

The Historical Context

The significance of this collapse cannot be overstated. Article 8 notes that psephologist Adrian Beaumont has suggested there is "some chance of the Liberals winning zero of 47 lower house seats." Currently holding 13 seats, the Liberals face losing at least half their representation according to the more optimistic polls, or complete elimination from the lower house according to the Newspoll figures. Premier Peter Malinauskas enjoys a commanding +40 net approval rating (67% satisfied, 27% dissatisfied), while Liberal leader Ashton Hurn registers only +4 net approval. Perhaps most damning, nearly half of South Australian voters now view the Liberal Party as "a fringe party not capable of governing," while 84% view Labor as a mainstream party.

Key Predictions

### 1. Liberal Party Electoral Devastation The March 21 election will almost certainly deliver the worst Liberal result in South Australian history. The party will likely be reduced to single-digit seats in the lower house, with a realistic possibility of complete elimination. The gap between polling (14-20% primary vote) and the threshold needed to win seats under preferential voting makes recovery virtually impossible in the remaining four weeks. The first debate between Malinauskas and Hurn, mentioned in Articles 1-7, is unlikely to move the needle significantly given the structural nature of Liberal support collapse rather than mere tactical campaign weaknesses. ### 2. One Nation Becomes Official Opposition One Nation will emerge as South Australia's official opposition party, winning multiple lower house seats in traditionally conservative areas. This represents a fundamental realignment where a populist right-wing party displaces the traditional center-right Liberal Party as Labor's primary competitor. Article 8's Victoria Morgan poll showing One Nation at 26.5% (ahead of both Labor at 25.5% and the Coalition at 21.5%) suggests this phenomenon may not be isolated to South Australia. While a separate Resolve poll shows One Nation at only 11% in Victoria, the divergence between polls indicates significant volatility and potential for One Nation growth. ### 3. National Liberal Party Crisis and Leadership Turmoil The South Australian result will trigger immediate existential debates within the federal Liberal Party about strategy, leadership, and positioning. Article 9's commentary from former Attorney-General George Brandis, delivered at Ron Boswell's funeral, already signals the battle lines: Brandis warns that "you'll never out-Pauline Pauline, and it is a fool's errand to try." This reflects competing views: whether to move further right to reclaim voters lost to One Nation, or to maintain traditional center-right positioning and wait for One Nation to implode. The South Australian wipeout will embolden those arguing the party has lost its identity and needs radical repositioning. ### 4. One Nation Expansion Strategy Emboldened by South Australian success, One Nation will intensify campaigns in other states, particularly Victoria where polling already shows competitive support. The party will position itself as the "real" conservative alternative, forcing Liberal parties in other states onto the defensive. However, Article 9's warning from the Ron Boswell funeral—that he "absolutely loathed" One Nation and saw them as "charlatans, hucksters, political snake oil salesmen"—represents the traditional conservative resistance that will intensify. ### 5. Labor Dominance and Governance Challenges Labor will win what Article 2 describes as "the largest two-party preferred vote since it formed in 1891." This supermajority will initially provide governing stability but could create long-term challenges. With a fragmented and weakened opposition, scrutiny of government will diminish, potentially leading to complacency or overreach. Furthermore, One Nation as opposition will likely prove less effective at holding government accountable on technical policy matters, focusing instead on populist cultural issues.

The Broader Implications

This realignment reflects deeper structural shifts in Australian politics: the hollowing out of traditional center-right parties, the rise of populist alternatives, and increasing polarization. South Australia may be the canary in the coal mine for conservative politics across Australia. The question now is whether the Liberal Party can survive as a viable political force or whether One Nation represents a permanent replacement of traditional conservatism with populist nationalism. The answer will shape Australian politics for a generation.