SNP Faces Uncertain Holyrood Election as Labour Struggles with Volatile Electorate

5 predicted events · 18 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

# SNP Faces Uncertain Holyrood Election as Labour Struggles with Volatile Electorate

As Scotland approaches its May 2026 Holyrood elections, the political landscape appears increasingly unpredictable, with both major parties facing significant challenges that could reshape the country's political future.

Current Situation: Labour's Warning Amid Electoral Volatility

Speaking at the Scottish Labour conference in Paisley on February 27, 2026, Douglas Alexander, joint chairman of Scottish Labour's election campaign, delivered a striking admission: his party remains the "underdog" in the upcoming Holyrood vote (Articles 1-18). However, Alexander simultaneously warned the SNP against complacency, insisting it would be a "misjudgement" for the nationalist party to assume victory is assured. This mixed message comes in the immediate aftermath of a shocking Westminster by-election defeat in Gorton and Denton, where Labour lost to the Green Party despite party strategists believing they were "best placed to defeat Reform" (Article 1). The loss has sent tremors through Labour's campaign, forcing the party to confront what Alexander describes as a "volatile" electorate showing deep frustration with traditional politics.

Key Trends and Signals

### Electoral Volatility and Multi-Party Competition The Gorton and Denton result reveals a critical trend: voters are willing to abandon major parties in favor of alternative options. The fact that Greens defeated Labour in a seat where Reform was also competitive demonstrates a fractured electorate with no clear allegiance patterns. This volatility creates both danger and opportunity for all parties competing in May's Holyrood elections. ### Labour's Defensive Posture Despite being in government at Westminster under Sir Keir Starmer, Scottish Labour finds itself on the back foot. Alexander's acknowledgment of "difficult headlines for Labour over recent weeks and months" (Articles 3-17) suggests the party is battling perception problems that extend beyond Scotland. The need to "learn lessons" from the Gorton defeat indicates internal recognition that Labour's messaging and campaign tactics require significant adjustment. ### SNP's Apparent Strength Masks Potential Vulnerabilities The fact that Labour's campaign chief felt compelled to warn the SNP against complacency suggests that current polling or internal assessments show the SNP leading. However, Alexander's insistence that the election is not "in the bag" for the SNP implies the margin may be closer than public polling suggests, or that Labour has identified potential paths to victory.

Predictions: What Happens Next

### 1. Increased Focus on Green and Reform Threat The next two months will see all major parties recalibrating their campaigns to address the challenge from smaller parties. The Gorton result demonstrates that Greens can win seats by capitalizing on progressive voter dissatisfaction with Labour, while Reform poses a threat on the right. In Scotland's proportional representation system for Holyrood, this dynamic could prove even more consequential than in Westminster constituencies. **Prediction**: Both SNP and Labour will sharpen their attacks on smaller parties, particularly the Scottish Greens, attempting to frame the May election as a two-party choice despite the multi-party reality. Expect increased rhetoric about "wasted votes" on minor parties. ### 2. Labour's Campaign Messaging Shift Alexander's comments about learning lessons and the electorate's frustration signal an imminent change in Labour's Scottish campaign approach. The party will likely move away from relying on Westminster achievements and toward addressing Scottish-specific concerns with more populist, anti-establishment messaging designed to capture the frustration that benefited the Greens in Gorton. **Prediction**: Within the next 2-4 weeks, expect Scottish Labour to announce new policy initiatives or campaign themes specifically addressing cost-of-living concerns, climate action, or public services—attempting to neutralize Green appeal while differentiating from the SNP. ### 3. SNP Will Adopt Cautious, Defensive Campaign Strategy While Alexander's warning about SNP complacency may be tactical spin, it also reflects a reality: frontrunners who appear overconfident risk voter backlash. The SNP leadership will likely have noted this warning and will be conscious of avoiding any appearance of taking victory for granted. **Prediction**: The SNP will run a risk-averse campaign focused on competent governance messaging rather than bold new initiatives, emphasizing stability over change. This defensive posture, while safe, may fail to energize voters in a volatile environment. ### 4. Turnout Will Be Critical and Potentially Lower Than Expected Electoral volatility combined with frustration with major parties typically produces one of two outcomes: voters switch to alternatives, or they stay home. The latter scenario particularly threatens Labour and the SNP, both of which need strong turnout from their traditional bases. **Prediction**: Turnout in the May Holyrood election will become the central strategic question. Parties will increasingly focus on get-out-the-vote operations rather than persuading undecided voters. Whichever major party better mobilizes its base will likely determine the outcome. ### 5. Minority Government or Coalition Becomes Most Likely Outcome The combination of electoral volatility, strong performance from smaller parties, and tight competition between Labour and SNP makes a clear majority for any single party increasingly unlikely. **Prediction**: The May 2026 Holyrood election will produce either a minority SNP government requiring case-by-case support from other parties, or a formal coalition arrangement—most likely SNP-Green if the SNP falls short of a majority, or potentially a Labour-led coalition if the party significantly outperforms current expectations.

Conclusion: An Election Still to Play For

Douglas Alexander's carefully calibrated message—acknowledging Labour's underdog status while warning against SNP complacency—accurately captures the state of play. With two months until voting day, both major parties face significant challenges, the electorate remains volatile and frustrated, and smaller parties have demonstrated their ability to pull off surprising victories. The Holyrood election is far from decided, and the outcome will likely depend less on which party runs the best campaign and more on which party makes the fewest mistakes in an unforgiving and unpredictable political environment.