Scottish Labour Faces Uphill Battle as May Holyrood Election Approaches Despite SNP Vulnerabilities

5 predicted events · 20 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

Current Situation: Labour Scrambles After Westminster Setback

Scottish Labour finds itself in a precarious position just months before the May 2026 Holyrood elections. Speaking at the Scottish Labour conference in Paisley on February 27, Douglas Alexander, the joint chairman of the party's election campaign, openly acknowledged that Labour enters the race as the "underdog" while simultaneously warning the SNP against complacency (Articles 1-20). This messaging comes in the immediate aftermath of a significant blow to Labour's credibility: the Gorton and Denton Westminster by-election defeat, where Sir Keir Starmer's party was unexpectedly beaten by the Greens. Alexander confirmed that Labour campaigners "genuinely believed" they could win that seat, suggesting either miscalculation in their political intelligence or a more fundamental disconnect with voter sentiment.

Key Trends and Signals

### Electoral Volatility as the New Normal Alexander's characterization of the electorate as "volatile" and "frustrated" represents a crucial admission that traditional voting patterns have broken down (Articles 1-20). The Gorton and Denton result demonstrates that voters are willing to abandon established parties for alternatives, even in seats where those parties might historically have been competitive. The fact that the Greens—not Reform, not the Conservatives, but the Greens—defeated Labour in a Manchester-area constituency signals a potential fracturing of the progressive vote that could prove catastrophic for Scottish Labour in May's proportional representation system at Holyrood. ### Labour's Defensive Positioning Alexander's rhetoric reveals a party managing expectations rather than projecting confidence. While he insists the SNP would be "complacent" to assume victory, his simultaneous admission of underdog status suggests internal polling may show Labour trailing significantly. His emphasis on learning lessons "not just in this campaign but in campaigns to come" implies the party is already looking beyond May 2026. ### The Multi-Party Threat Environment Alexander's relief that "Reform were defeated" in Gorton and Denton, despite Labour also losing, highlights the complex multi-party dynamics at play. Scottish Labour faces threats from multiple directions: the SNP as the dominant force, a resurgent Scottish Green party potentially emboldened by the Gorton result, Reform UK gaining traction, and possibly the Liberal Democrats in specific constituencies.

Predictions

### 1. SNP Secures Minority or Coalition Government Despite Alexander's warnings against SNP complacency, the most likely outcome remains an SNP-led government after May 2026. Labour's admission of underdog status, combined with the demonstrated volatility that hurts incumbent UK government parties, suggests Scottish Labour lacks the momentum needed for a breakthrough. The SNP's established presence in Holyrood, combined with Labour's association with an increasingly unpopular Westminster government facing "difficult headlines," creates a structural advantage for the nationalists. However, the fragmented opposition and potential Green surge may prevent the SNP from achieving an outright majority, likely forcing them into either minority government or formal coalition negotiations. ### 2. Scottish Greens Make Significant Gains The Gorton and Denton result will reverberate through Scottish politics. Expect the Scottish Greens to capitalize on this momentum, positioning themselves as the authentic progressive alternative to both Labour (tainted by Westminster association) and the SNP (potentially seen as stale after years in power). Under Holyrood's proportional representation system, the regional list vote could deliver the Greens their best-ever result, potentially making them kingmakers in coalition negotiations. ### 3. Labour Finishes Third or Fourth in Vote Share The combination of factors—admitted underdog status, recent by-election humiliation, association with unpopular UK government policies, and multi-directional vote splitting—points toward Labour potentially finishing behind not just the SNP but possibly the Conservatives and even the Greens in terms of overall vote share. While constituency seats may provide some cushion, the regional list could prove brutal for Labour. ### 4. Post-Election Leadership Crisis for Scottish Labour Should Labour perform as poorly as current signals suggest, expect immediate pressure on the Scottish Labour leadership. Alexander's careful framing of the campaign as a learning experience suggests senior figures are already preparing for disappointment and positioning themselves for the subsequent blame game and leadership contest. ### 5. Reformed Electoral Calculus Reshapes Scottish Politics Long-Term The May 2026 election will likely mark a permanent shift in Scottish electoral politics away from the traditional Labour-SNP binary toward a more complex multi-party system. This will make future governance more complicated but potentially more representative, with smaller parties wielding disproportionate influence in coalition negotiations.

Conclusion

Douglas Alexander's candid assessment reveals a party bracing for disappointment rather than preparing for victory. While his warning about SNP complacency has merit—the volatile electorate could indeed produce surprises—the balance of evidence suggests Scottish Labour faces a difficult May. The party's best hope may be limiting damage and positioning for longer-term recovery rather than achieving breakthrough in 2026. The real wildcard remains the extent of Green party gains and whether voter frustration manifests as abstention, protest votes for smaller parties, or a return to SNP as the "safe" choice for those seeking distance from Westminster politics. The next three months will determine whether Alexander's underdog framing proves prudent expectation management or unfortunate self-fulfilling prophecy.