Paramount's Seven-Day Countdown: Why the Warner Bros Bidding War Will Likely End With Netflix

5 predicted events · 9 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The High-Stakes Hollywood Showdown

A dramatic bidding war for Warner Bros Discovery has reached a critical juncture, with Paramount Skydance given just seven days to present its "best and final" offer to acquire the entertainment giant. Despite reopening negotiations, Warner Bros has made clear its continued preference for Netflix's $82.7 billion deal to purchase its studio and streaming divisions—setting the stage for what may be one of the most consequential media mergers in recent history.

Current State of Play

As of February 17, 2026, Warner Bros Discovery has rejected Paramount's $30 per share bid while signaling openness to a higher offer (Article 1). According to Article 3, Paramount has indicated it would offer at least $31 per share if talks reopened, though representatives suggested this isn't their final proposal. Netflix has granted a seven-day waiver through February 23 for Warner Bros to engage with Paramount, while shareholders are scheduled to vote on the Netflix merger on March 20 (Article 7). The competing bids differ fundamentally in structure: Netflix's deal targets only Warner Bros' streaming and studio divisions, while Paramount seeks to acquire the entire company (Article 4). Paramount has also offered to cover the $2.8 billion termination fee Warner Bros would owe Netflix if it abandons that deal.

Key Trends and Strategic Signals

Several critical factors point toward the likely outcome of this bidding war: **Financial Strength Disparities**: Warner Bros has repeatedly emphasized Netflix's superior financial position as a reason for preferring its offer (Article 4). This suggests that even if Paramount raises its bid above $31 per share, concerns about Paramount's ability to execute may persist. **Structural Deal Terms**: Warner Bros' letter to Paramount reveals significant concerns about deal certainty. The company notes that Netflix's merger agreement is binding and cannot be amended without Warner Bros' consent, while Paramount's proposed terms give Paramount rights to terminate or amend the deal (Article 4). This structural advantage for Netflix is unlikely to disappear even with a higher price. **National Security Complications**: Article 7 reveals that Netflix is already raising "serious national security concerns" about the "foreign funding behind PSKY's bid," specifically citing Middle Eastern partners including Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. Representative Sam Liccardo has sent a letter questioning these funding sources. This political dimension could prove insurmountable for Paramount, regardless of price. **Timeline Pressure**: With shareholder votes scheduled for March 20—just over one month away—and only seven days granted for Paramount's final offer, the compressed timeline favors the incumbent Netflix deal rather than a complex renegotiation.

Predictions: The Path Forward

### Prediction 1: Paramount Will Submit a Higher Bid, But It Won't Be Enough Paramount will almost certainly submit a revised offer exceeding $31 per share within the seven-day window. The company has demonstrated consistent willingness to increase its bid and has explicitly indicated $31 isn't its best offer (Article 7). However, this bid will likely fall short of Warner Bros' expectations or fail to address the structural concerns about deal certainty and business restrictions during the pending transaction period. ### Prediction 2: Netflix Will Not Need to Match Paramount's Offer Despite granting the seven-day waiver, Netflix appears confident it won't need to significantly increase its offer. The company's statement about national security concerns (Article 7) suggests it's preparing a defensive strategy beyond price competition. The structural advantages of Netflix's deal terms, combined with regulatory concerns about Paramount's funding sources, mean Warner Bros' board can justify recommending the Netflix deal even at a lower per-share price. ### Prediction 3: Warner Bros Board Will Reaffirm Netflix Recommendation by February 24 By the end of Paramount's seven-day window, Warner Bros' board will formally reject Paramount's final offer and reaffirm its recommendation for the Netflix merger. The board's letter already states it "continues to recommend and remains fully committed" to the Netflix transaction (Article 1). This week-long reopening appears designed primarily to satisfy fiduciary duties and demonstrate thorough consideration of alternatives, rather than signal genuine openness to switching bidders. ### Prediction 4: Regulatory Scrutiny Will Intensify Around Paramount's Foreign Backing The national security concerns raised by Netflix and Representative Liccardo will gain momentum in the coming weeks, potentially triggering formal CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States) inquiries. This regulatory cloud will further diminish Paramount's chances, as Warner Bros' board will be reluctant to pursue a deal that faces significant regulatory uncertainty. ### Prediction 5: Shareholder Vote Will Approve Netflix Deal in March The March 20 shareholder vote will proceed as scheduled and approve the Netflix merger with strong support. By that date, the Paramount alternative will have been thoroughly explored and rejected, giving shareholders confidence that the board has maximized value while choosing the most certain path forward.

The Bigger Picture

This bidding war represents more than just a corporate transaction—it signals a fundamental restructuring of the streaming and entertainment landscape. Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros' vast content library, including franchises like Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, and DC Comics (Article 1), would create an unprecedented content powerhouse. As Article 2 notes, Goldman Sachs is already suggesting sports could be "the next asset class," indicating how rapidly the industry is consolidating around differentiated content strategies. The ultimate outcome will likely reinforce the advantages of established streaming giants with strong balance sheets over traditional media companies attempting transformational mergers. Paramount's struggle to overcome structural and regulatory obstacles, despite offering competitive pricing, demonstrates that in today's media landscape, financial strength and deal certainty matter as much as purchase price. The clock is ticking on Paramount's seven-day window. But barring an extraordinary development, the path forward leads to Netflix's victory and a reshaped streaming industry dominated by an even more formidable content leader.