Merz's CDU Prepares for Rightward Policy Shift as Germany Faces State Elections and Rising Nationalism

7 predicted events · 11 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

# Merz's CDU Prepares for Rightward Policy Shift as Germany Faces State Elections and Rising Nationalism

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emerged from the CDU's Stuttgart party conference with strengthened party support, securing 91.17% backing in his leadership reelection—an improvement over his 2024 result. However, the conference's outcomes and rhetoric signal a governing party preparing to navigate treacherous political waters, with significant implications for Germany's domestic and foreign policy trajectory in the coming months.

The Current Landscape: A Party Under Pressure

The CDU party conference, held February 20-21, 2026 in Stuttgart, represented a critical test for Merz after what articles describe as an "irregular" first year as chancellor (Articles 4, 9). Since forming a coalition government with the SPD in May 2025, Merz has faced internal tensions, including his election as chancellor requiring a second vote and controversies surrounding pension reforms (Article 4). The conference itself reflected these tensions—technical problems delayed the leadership vote by over three hours, forcing delegates to resort to paper ballots (Articles 3, 4). Yet Merz's improved vote share suggests the party is rallying behind his leadership, at least for now.

Key Policy Signals: A Rightward Turn

Two significant policy developments from the conference indicate the direction Merz's CDU is heading: **The Full-Face Covering Ban**: The conference voted to implement a nationwide ban on face coverings like the burqa and niqab in public spaces (Article 1). Framed by the Women's Union as supporting "women's rights and dignity" and creating "an open society," this measure follows similar bans in France, Belgium, and Austria. This represents a clear appeal to conservative voters concerned about immigration and cultural integration. **Aggressive Rearmament Rhetoric**: Merz devoted substantial attention to defense and European security, declaring that "Europe must learn to speak with the language of force" and warning that "naive pacifism today is facilitating tomorrow's war" (Articles 5, 7, 8). He emphasized Germany's role as Europe's leading power must include military strength, particularly as US reliability under Trump remains uncertain.

The AfD Shadow

Merz's speech prominently addressed the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which civil intelligence services designated as "demonstrably right-wing extremist" in 2025 (Article 3). He categorically ruled out cooperation with AfD, stating he would not allow the party to "ruin the country" (Article 3). This firm stance comes as AfD continues to poll strongly, particularly in eastern Germany. Yet the CDU's adoption of policies like the face-covering ban suggests a strategy of absorbing AfD-adjacent issues into mainstream conservative politics—attempting to win back voters without formal cooperation.

State Elections: The Immediate Test

The conference's Stuttgart location was strategic: Baden-Württemberg holds elections just two weeks after the conference, with four more states voting before September (Articles 10, 11). Two states—Berlin and Saxony-Anhalt—currently have CDU premiers. These elections will serve as referendums on Merz's early chancellorship and the CDU's ability to maintain its "chancellor bonus" (Article 10).

Pro-EU Demonstrations: A Counter-Movement

Article 1 mentions pro-EU demonstrations planned in Stuttgart, Hamburg, Munich, and other European cities during the conference. This suggests growing anxiety among progressive Germans about the CDU's rightward drift and its implications for European integration, particularly given Merz's emphasis on European rearmament and national strength.

What Happens Next: Key Predictions

**Economic Reform Package Launch**: Articles 10 and 11 indicate CDU Secretary General Carsten Linnemann hopes for a reform package announcement "before spring arrives." With Merz securing strong party backing and emphasizing Germany's need to recover its economic strength (Article 5), expect a comprehensive economic reform proposal by late March 2026, likely including labor market liberalization and business incentives. **Intensified Cultural Conservatism**: The face-covering ban vote signals the CDU will pursue additional culturally conservative policies to differentiate itself from the SPD coalition partner while competing with AfD. Expect proposals on immigration restriction, integration requirements, and education policy reforms within 2-3 months. **Defense Spending Surge**: Merz's forceful rearmament rhetoric, combined with his emphasis on Ukraine support and European defense autonomy (Articles 5, 7, 8), points toward a major defense budget increase proposal. This will likely come within the next quarter, potentially causing tension with the SPD coalition partner. **State Election Strategy Shift**: With five state elections approaching, the CDU will increasingly campaign on national security, economic competence, and cultural preservation themes. Baden-Württemberg's March vote will be watched as a bellwether—strong performance would embolden Merz's approach; weakness might trigger internal debate. **Coalition Tensions with SPD**: As the CDU moves rightward on cultural and security issues, friction with the SPD will intensify. Watch for public disagreements over immigration, defense spending, and social policy in the coming months. The coalition's stability may be tested by summer 2026.

The Broader European Context

Merz's vision of a militarily strong, culturally assertive Germany represents a significant departure from the Merkel era. His 91.1% support—approaching Merkel's 2012 peak of 92.9% (Articles 5, 7, 8)—suggests the CDU base is ready for this transformation. However, the pro-EU demonstrations indicate not all Germans share this enthusiasm. The coming months will reveal whether Merz can balance his assertive nationalism with European cooperation, satisfy his conservative base without alienating moderates, and maintain coalition unity while pursuing an ambitious reform agenda. The state elections will provide the first major verdict on this high-stakes political strategy.