Gaza Ceasefire Teeters on Collapse as Trump's Board of Peace Faces Crucial First Test

6 predicted events · 7 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

The Fragile Truce Unravels

The October 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Hamas appears increasingly unstable as Israeli airstrikes on February 15, 2026, killed at least 11-12 Palestinians across Gaza, marking another violent episode in what has become a pattern of mutual accusations and escalating tensions. According to Articles 1 and 2, at least 601 Palestinians have been killed since the truce began in October—a staggering death toll that fundamentally challenges the very definition of a "ceasefire." The latest strikes targeted a tent encampment housing displaced families in northern Gaza and locations in Khan Younis in the south, with Article 5 noting that Israel claimed the attacks were "precise" responses to Hamas ceasefire violations. However, Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem described the strikes as a new "massacre" and a serious breach of the agreement, illustrating the complete breakdown in trust between the parties.

Critical Timing: The Board of Peace Meeting

These developments come at a particularly sensitive moment. Article 6 reveals that President Donald Trump's newly established Board of Peace is scheduled to hold its first meeting in Washington on February 19, 2026—just days after these latest strikes. The Board, which has a UN Security Council mandate, is tasked with establishing an international force to secure Gaza's border areas, overseeing Hamas's disarmament, and forming a new technocratic Palestinian government. The timing of these airstrikes, occurring mere days before this inaugural meeting, signals several concerning trends: 1. **Neither party appears committed to de-escalation** ahead of crucial diplomatic proceedings 2. **The ceasefire lacks effective enforcement mechanisms** to prevent violations 3. **The death toll of 600+ since October** suggests systematic rather than isolated incidents

What Will Happen Next

### Immediate Aftermath (Next 7-10 Days) The Board of Peace's February 19 meeting will likely become a referendum on the ceasefire's viability rather than a routine implementation session. Expect intense diplomatic pressure on both Israel and Hamas to demonstrate restraint in the 72 hours preceding the meeting. However, given the pattern established over the past four months, additional "retaliatory" strikes from both sides are probable. The international community, particularly the United States, faces a credibility test. If Trump's Board cannot establish consequences for ceasefire violations at its very first meeting, the entire framework risks collapse. Look for emergency consultations between US officials and both Israeli and Palestinian representatives before February 19. ### Medium-Term Trajectory (2-6 Weeks) The Board of Peace will likely propose deploying international monitors or peacekeeping forces to Gaza more quickly than originally planned. The current situation demonstrates that neither Israel nor Hamas can be trusted to self-police ceasefire compliance. However, Israel has historically resisted international forces on its borders, creating a diplomatic impasse. Expect the Board to face immediate challenges: - **Defining "ceasefire violations"**: Article 4 and 5 show both sides claim the other violated the agreement first, with no neutral arbiter to adjudicate disputes - **Hamas disarmament**: With 601 Palestinians killed during the "ceasefire," Hamas will argue that disarming would leave Gaza's population defenseless - **Humanitarian access**: The strikes on displaced persons' camps suggest civilian protection remains inadequate ### Long-Term Outlook (3-6 Months) Three scenarios appear most likely: **Scenario 1: Managed Deterioration (40% probability)** - The ceasefire continues in name only, with periodic flare-ups claiming dozens of lives monthly. The Board of Peace becomes a talking shop while the situation on the ground gradually worsens. This represents a continuation of the current trajectory. **Scenario 2: Ceasefire Collapse and Renewed Conflict (35% probability)** - A major incident—perhaps a mass-casualty attack by either side—provides the justification for one party to formally withdraw from the agreement. Given that 601 people have already died during the "ceasefire," the threshold for what constitutes a deal-breaking violation has been dramatically raised. **Scenario 3: Strengthened International Framework (25% probability)** - The Board of Peace successfully deploys international forces with robust rules of engagement, creating a buffer zone and reducing direct Israel-Hamas contact. This requires unlikely alignment between major powers and acquiescence from both primary parties.

Key Variables to Monitor

1. **The February 19 Board of Peace meeting outcomes**: Concrete enforcement mechanisms or merely expressions of concern? 2. **Casualty trends**: Does the death toll accelerate, stabilize, or decline in coming weeks? 3. **Hamas's military posture**: Any signs of rearmament or repositioning? 4. **Israeli domestic politics**: Is there political pressure on the government to take stronger action? 5. **US commitment level**: Will Trump personally invest political capital in maintaining the ceasefire?

Conclusion

The events of February 15, 2026, represent not an aberration but a pattern. With over 600 deaths since October's ceasefire, the agreement exists primarily on paper. The Board of Peace's first meeting will determine whether the international community can salvage this framework or whether the region is sliding inexorably toward renewed full-scale conflict. The next two weeks will be decisive.