European Banking Consolidation and Capital Markets Integration Set to Accelerate Following Assiom Forex Congress

5 predicted events · 5 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

Current Situation: A Pivotal Moment for European Finance

At the 32nd annual Assiom Forex congress in Venice on February 21, 2026, industry leaders articulated a bold vision for transforming Europe's financial architecture. Massimo Mocio, president of Assiom Forex, delivered a comprehensive address positioning European and Italian banks not as the problem plaguing the continent's economy, but as the solution to its structural challenges. According to Articles 2, 4, and 5, Italian banks have undergone a remarkable transformation since the sovereign debt crisis of 2011 and the pandemic. They now possess "solid balance sheets, elevated capital coefficients, and significantly improved profitability." This structural strengthening has positioned them to play a crucial role in financing the real economy, with European banks contributing 70% of real economy financing compared to just 30% in the United States.

Key Trends and Strategic Imperatives

### The Push for Banking Union and Larger Institutions Mocio's central thesis, repeated across all articles, is unambiguous: Europe needs "more efficient, more digital but above all larger banks, with truly European scale to compete in global markets." As stated in Articles 2, 4, and 5, he believes "the Banking Union is a precondition for a true Single Market for Capital." This represents a significant shift in European banking policy discourse. Rather than viewing large banks as systemic risks to be constrained, the industry is now openly advocating for scale as a competitive necessity. ### Mobilizing €33 Trillion in European Savings Article 3 highlights a critical vulnerability: European investors hold approximately €2.8 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, while total European savings amount to roughly €33 trillion. With "two-thirds of global market capitalization in U.S. equities" and Treasury securities representing "a quarter of the global bond market," European capital is systematically flowing abroad rather than financing domestic growth. Mocio advocates for three fundamental directions: mobilizing savings toward European assets, creating a continental "safe asset," and accelerating digital transformation. He emphasizes that "there is natural demand and a favorable moment" for such initiatives, according to Article 3. ### Digital Transformation as Existential Challenge Article 1 reveals that the primary digital challenge for European banks won't be disintermediation from central bank digital currencies, stablecoins, or crypto-assets. Instead, it will be "the capacity to remain at the frontier of innovation, managing growing complexity and fragmentation of infrastructures" while "countering inevitable competition from Fintechs."

Predictions: What Happens Next

### Cross-Border Banking Consolidation The most significant near-term development will likely be renewed momentum toward cross-border European banking mergers. Mocio's explicit call for "larger banks with truly European scale" represents industry consensus building. Expect Italian banks—having completed their balance sheet rehabilitation—to emerge as either consolidators or attractive merger partners. The political environment appears increasingly receptive. References to geopolitical pressures (Article 3 mentions "not only for geopolitical reasons") suggest that recent global tensions, possibly involving U.S. trade or security policies, are creating urgency around European strategic autonomy in finance. ### Progress on European Safe Asset The call for a continental safe asset to rival U.S. Treasuries will gain traction in European policy circles. This could manifest as expanded joint EU bond issuance, building on the precedent of NextGenerationEU pandemic recovery bonds. According to Article 3, both "natural demand and favorable moment" exist, suggesting policymakers may find surprising political support. However, implementation will face significant obstacles, particularly from fiscally conservative northern European states wary of debt mutualization. Expect incremental progress rather than breakthrough—perhaps announcement of a working group or pilot program within 6-12 months. ### Capital Markets Union Acceleration Mocio's framing of Banking Union as a "precondition" for Capital Markets Union signals a strategic sequencing. As banking consolidation advances, expect parallel initiatives to harmonize securities regulations, integrate clearing and settlement systems, and reduce fragmentation in European capital markets. The €33 trillion savings mobilization target will drive concrete policy proposals, potentially including tax incentives for investing in European equities or restrictions on institutional investment in non-EU assets. ### Regulatory Evolution on Bank Profitability Mocio's defense against criticism that banks "make too much revenue" (Articles 2, 4, 5) suggests anticipation of populist pressure or regulatory intervention. The emphatic reframing of banks as "solution not problem" appears preemptive. This indicates potential political headwinds as improved bank profitability attracts attention. Expect industry lobbying to intensify against proposed windfall taxes or additional regulatory capital requirements, with banks arguing such measures would undermine their ability to finance the green and digital transitions.

Conclusion: A Decisive Decade

The Assiom Forex congress marks an inflection point where European banking leaders are assertively claiming a central role in addressing the continent's strategic challenges. The confluence of rehabilitated bank balance sheets, geopolitical pressure for autonomy, and technological transformation creates conditions for significant structural change. The question is not whether consolidation and integration will occur, but how quickly and completely European policymakers will embrace this vision against entrenched national interests and regulatory conservatism.