Cuba Crisis: Three Scenarios for How Trump's Oil Blockade Will Unfold

6 predicted events · 9 source articles analyzed · Model: claude-sonnet-4-5-20250929

# Cuba Crisis: Three Scenarios for How Trump's Oil Blockade Will Unfold

The Current Situation

Cuba is facing its worst energy crisis in decades as a US-imposed oil blockade chokes off the island's fuel supplies. The crisis has escalated rapidly since mid-December 2025, when Venezuela—once Cuba's top supplier—effectively stopped oil shipments following the US military's abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. Mexico, another key supplier, capitulated to Washington's threats of tariffs and halted its own shipments (Article 2). The humanitarian impact is already severe. According to Article 3, only 44 of Havana's 106 garbage trucks remain operational, causing waste to pile up across the capital for more than 10 days in some areas. The island has experienced widespread blackouts, cancelled its world-renowned cigar festival (Article 7), and is warning tourists to stay away as hotels shut down to conserve electricity. Cuba imports approximately 60% of its energy supplies, making it particularly vulnerable to external pressure. President Trump has characterized Cuba as a "failed nation" while simultaneously revealing that the US and Cuba are "talking" (Article 5), suggesting negotiations may be underway even as the humanitarian crisis deepens.

Key Trends and Signals

Several critical trends emerge from the current situation: **1. International Isolation Through Coercion**: The Trump administration has successfully weaponized tariff threats to force traditional Cuban allies like Mexico to comply with the blockade. This represents an escalation beyond traditional sanctions, demonstrating Washington's willingness to use economic coercion against third parties. **2. Russia's Limited Response**: While Russia and Cuba held solidarity meetings in Moscow (Article 1), there's no indication of substantial Russian intervention. A Russian newspaper reported the situation as "critical," suggesting Moscow may lack the capacity or will to provide meaningful relief. **3. Regime Survival Mode**: Cuba's communist government has implemented rationing measures to protect essential services (Article 4), indicating it's preparing for a prolonged crisis rather than immediate capitulation. **4. Diplomatic Opening**: Trump's acknowledgment of talks (Article 5) suggests the administration may be more interested in extracting concessions than complete regime collapse—at least in the near term.

Prediction Analysis: Three Scenarios

### Scenario 1: Negotiated Compromise (40% Probability) The most likely outcome is a negotiated settlement within 2-3 months that provides Cuba limited sanctions relief in exchange for symbolic political and economic reforms. Trump's public statement about ongoing talks signals that Washington has established a communication channel, and the administration's endgame appears focused on forcing reforms rather than outright regime change (Article 1). Expect Cuba to offer concessions such as: - Limited expansion of private enterprise - Prisoner releases or human rights gestures - Reduced military cooperation with Russia and China - Possible movement toward democratic reforms In return, the US would likely allow limited oil shipments, possibly through third-party countries with strict monitoring. This scenario preserves Trump's ability to claim victory while avoiding a complete humanitarian catastrophe that could generate refugee flows to Florida—a political liability. ### Scenario 2: Protracted Standoff (35% Probability) A more pessimistic scenario involves both sides miscalculating. The Cuban government, having survived over 60 years of US pressure, may believe it can outlast Trump's second term through extreme rationing and appeals to international sympathy. Meanwhile, the Trump administration may overestimate Cuba's willingness to cave quickly. This scenario leads to: - Continued deterioration of public health conditions as waste management collapses - Increased migration pressure, with Cubans attempting dangerous sea crossings to Florida - Growing international criticism, particularly from Latin American countries - Emergency humanitarian interventions by the UN or NGOs - Political stalemate lasting 6-12 months Article 6's expert commentary from Emily Morris at UCL suggests the situation could become increasingly unsustainable, making this prolonged crisis scenario plausible but ultimately unstable. ### Scenario 3: Regime Destabilization (25% Probability) The least likely but highest-impact scenario involves the Cuban government losing control as conditions deteriorate beyond its capacity to manage. Public health crises from uncollected waste (Article 3), prolonged blackouts, and food shortages could trigger spontaneous protests similar to the July 2021 demonstrations—but on a larger scale. This scenario would see: - Mass protests in Havana and other major cities within 1-2 months - Military or security forces facing loyalty tests - Potential factional splits within the Communist Party - Emergency international intervention discussions - Possible US military or humanitarian presence However, Article 1's analysis suggests Trump may lack the "tools" for effective regime change, and Cuba's security apparatus has historically maintained tight control even during severe crises like the 1990s Special Period.

The Next 30-60 Days: What to Watch

Several indicators will signal which scenario is unfolding: **Diplomatic Signals**: Watch for announcements of formal negotiations or visit by US or Cuban officials. Trump's acknowledgment of talks is significant—expansion of these channels would point toward Scenario 1. **Third-Party Actions**: Russia's response is critical. If Moscow arranges limited oil shipments despite US pressure, it could provide Cuba breathing room for a protracted standoff. However, Article 1's reporting suggests Russia's support may be more rhetorical than material. **Public Health Metrics**: The garbage crisis (Articles 3 and 4) is an early warning system. If waste collection continues to collapse and disease outbreaks emerge, pressure for resolution—whether through negotiation or destabilization—will intensify rapidly. **Migration Flows**: Any significant increase in Cubans attempting to reach Florida would force Trump's hand domestically, likely accelerating negotiations to prevent a politically damaging refugee crisis before the 2028 election cycle begins.

Conclusion

The Trump administration has successfully isolated Cuba economically but faces the challenge of converting pressure into political outcomes. The most likely path forward involves a negotiated compromise that allows both sides to claim partial victory, but the risk of miscalculation creating either a prolonged humanitarian crisis or regime destabilization remains significant. The next 60 days will be critical in determining which scenario unfolds, with the garbage crisis and potential public health emergency serving as the most immediate trigger for action.