Will President Trump avoid MAGA dud problem with 2026 primary picks ?

yahoo.com · Feb 18, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Senate GOP leaders have rallied around Texas Republican Sen. John Cornyn in his hotly contested primary, suggesting he has the best chance of holding the seat and urging President Donald Trump to endorse him.While it hasn't worked — Trump remains uncommitted ahead of the March 3 contest — the lobbying campaign shows the president's continued dominance of the GOP, something Trump reveled in recently when asked about the Texas race."They say whoever I endorse wins," Trump told reporters on Feb. 1 at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida. "That’s probably right."As Trump's broader political power dims amid backlash to his aggressive second term, it burns brightly in the GOP primaries that kick off next month and run through the early fall. How Trump uses it could have a big impact on the 2026 midterm election, the president’s last two years in office, and beyond, setting the direction of the GOP for years to come and framing the president's legacy.Trump has long wielded his endorsements as a cudgel to purge the party of those he clashed with, such as former Rep. Liz Cheney and former first-term Trump Attorney General Jeff Sessions. That continues to be the case.The president is backing primary challenges to GOP incumbents in both the House and Senate who have defied him, and threatening more to come, while also targeting Republican lawmakers in state legislative races. The hardball tactics have helped Trump maintain control of Congress to a large degree, but they can come at a cost."You never know when he will stick his finger in the eye of a political ally or where he will elevate a complete MAGA dud," said Matthew Bartlett, a GOP consultant who worked in Trump's first administration.You do the (midterm) math: Trump's 36% approval, MAGA's $304 million'He's risking losing Texas'Some Republicans worry the president's approach doesn't always elevate the strongest candidates, contributing to the GOP's losses in winnable races in the past, such as the failed Senate campaigns of Mehmet Oz and Herschel Walker in 2022, and threatening the same in 2026.They are frustrated that Trump hasn’t embraced Cornyn, a candidate they view as more electable than his two GOP challengers, believing it could cost Republicans the seat and even control of the Senate."He’s risking losing Texas," said Rep. Don Bacon, a five-term Nebraska Republican who has defied Trump on tariffs and other issues and is not seeking reelection this year.Trump has endorsed many incumbents, supporting several GOP candidates in open seats backed by party leaders and viewed as strong contenders, helping clear the field and limit expensive and damaging primary contests. Some Republican lawmakers and consultants interviewed by USA TODAY describe it as a more pragmatic approach, on balance, that prioritizes winning above all else. Some of Trump’s picks have even been past critics."He’s very focused on keeping the House and the Senate," said Republican Florida Sen. Rick Scott.Doomed endorsementsTrump has retained an ardent core of MAGA followers throughout his time in office, making his endorsement coveted in primaries.He's been a kingmaker, with 95% of the primary candidates he backed winning their 2018 races, 97% in 2020, and 93% in 2022 after he was out of office for two years, according to a Washington Post analysis. His success rate isn’t as high in the general election, though, and his choice of candidates has at times raised concerns within his party.Some of Trump's more notable endorsement flops include 2022 Senate candidates Blake Masters in Arizona, Oz in Pennsylvania, Walker in Georgia, and gubernatorial candidates Kari Lake in Arizona and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania, all of whom lost to Democrats. Trump endorsed Lake again in her 2024 Senate bid, but she lost.Now attention is turning to Texas, with Trump telling reporters on Feb. 16 while traveling on Air Force One that "I just haven't made a decision on that race yet."2026 elections: Capturing Maduro unlikely to boost Trump, GOP midterm performanceCornyn is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a MAGA firebrand who filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Supreme Court challenging the 2020 presidential election results in four battleground states after Trump claimed, without evidence, that the contest was stolen. Cornyn later criticized the lawsuit.A senator since 2002 after serving as Texas attorney general and on the state Supreme Court, Cornyn is a longtime GOP establishment figure and party leader who was closely aligned with former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, a frequent Trump target.Paxton and another Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt, are both strong Trump allies, and Cornyn speculated in a recent CBS interview that the president doesn’t want to "disappoint" elements of his base that are backing his opponents. A Real Clear Politics average of recent polls shows Paxton ahead by two percentage points in the primary, followed closely by Cornyn, with Hunt in a distant third.The race would go to a runoff on May 26 if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote.A pair of Democrats, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, are vying for the party's nomination in Texas in a race that is also testing Democrats' direction in the Trump era. A recent Emerson poll shows Cornyn ahead of both potential opponents in a hypothetical general election, while a Paxton nomination would result in a dead heat against either candidate.Losing Texas would be a massive blow to the GOP and could put the Senate majority in reach for Democrats. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, according to The Texas Tribune. While the state's large Latino population has made it an enticing target for the party, it has remained just out of reach. Democrat Beto O'Rourke fell short by just 2.6 points against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018."There's a legitimate fear that if Cornyn loses, there’s a real shot we’ll lose the seat," said former Michigan GOP Rep. Fred Upton, who opted not to seek reelection in 2022 after voting to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.Other polling indicates Paxton would be just as competitive as Cornyn in the general election. And Trump "likes Paxton," Upton said, adding: "Two peas in a pod.""I like all three of them, actually. I like all three," Trump said of Texas's GOP Senate candidates on Feb. 16. "Those are the toughest races. They've all supported me, they're all good and you're supposed to pick one. So we'll see what happens, but I support all three."The White House did not respond to USA TODAY's questions about Trump's approach to endorsements.Trump targets GOP incumbentsTexas isn't the only primary where Trump’s approach is raising GOP concerns.The president recently endorsed a primary challenger to Louisiana GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to impeach Trump after the 2021 Capitol riot but has largely backed his agenda since he returned to office. A physician, Cassidy expressed reservations about Robert F. Kennedy's nomination as Health and Human Services secretary but later ended up supporting him."Cassidy played ball with Trump, he was pretty loyal. But at the end of the day, you just knew Trump was not going to endorse him," Upton said.'Resign': Health care group wants RFK Jr. to step down as HHS secretary after cocaine confessionThe difference with Texas, though, is that Louisiana is "a safe seat," Upton said, arguing the Republican nominee who emerges from the May 16 primary is almost certain to win, so there’s little risk for Trump in targeting Cassidy.Trump carried Louisiana by 22 percentage points. He carried Texas by 14, and Democrats are eying the state as a pickup opportunity after strongly overperforming in off-year and special elections leading up to the midterms, including winning a Texas state Senate seat Trump carried by 17 percentage points. Louisiana recently had a Democratic governor, John Bel Edwards, who served two terms ending in 2024, but has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Mary Landrieu in 2008. She lost to Cassidy in 2014.Trump is also trying to unseat Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky's May 19 primary, targeting a Republican who incurred the president's ire by regularly voting against him and pushing to release the Epstein files. Other Republicans, like Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, opted to retire after Trump threatened to back primary opponents. Greene also clashed with Trump on the Epstein files, while Tillis voted against his signature tax and spending bill last year.Greene resigned from office, prompting a March 10 special election to replace her in Georgia's 14th congressional district. Trump endorsed District Attorney Clay Fuller in the crowded race. The president is traveling to the district on Feb. 19, according to a White House official.Tillis' departure could be especially significant."We have an uphill climb now in that seat," Bacon said.North Carolina is a top Senate battleground, and Tillis had clear advantages as an incumbent and independent-minded Republican. With Tillis out, Trump has endorsed former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley, who is trailing former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper by 8.6 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics polling average.Trump brought Whatley on stage during a Feb. 13 event at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, describing him as "phenomenal" but adding that "the only thing is, he's not as well known."The payoff for staying loyal is an endorsement, which can clear the primary field and is coveted by GOP lawmakers. While the president has targeted a few GOP lawmakers, he is backing plenty of incumbents' reelection bids, indicating they have largely stood by him, and the party has been transformed in his image.Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley said Trump "wields fear as a weapon" and "makes Republicans quake" under the threat he could lash out at them.Trump backs incumbents, clears the fieldOf the