Will Iran collapse without Khamenei or can its regime endure?

South China Morning Post · Mar 1, 2026 · Collected from RSS

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The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the latest US-Israeli strikes on the country has triggered not only a leadership vacuum but also a high-stakes test of whether the Islamic Republic’s system can endure without the man who dominated it for nearly four decades.Analysts said the immediate signs point less to collapse than to hardening continuity, at least for now, as security institutions close ranks, the battlefield expands and signs of internal rupture remain absent.Even so, they warned that the greater danger might lie in what follows: not an orderly transition, but a contested interim period in which power shifts further towards the military establishment.Within hours of Khamenei’s killing, Iran’s security apparatus signalled that operations would continue. Paramilitary units were deployed nationwide to deter unrest, as observers said Tehran sought to project control at home while escalating abroad.04:41Iran’s Supreme leader Khamenei confirmed dead after US-Israeli strikesIran’s Supreme leader Khamenei confirmed dead after US-Israeli strikesIran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Israel and US-linked targets in the region but struggled to penetrate Israel’s air defences or inflict significant losses on American forces.