DW News · Feb 14, 2026 · Collected from RSS
As Egypt deploys troops to Mogadishu, analysts say Cairo is focusing on strategic access to the Red Sea and Somalia is concentrating on internal stability. But both countries share concerns about Ethiopian expansionism.
Bilateral ties between Egypt and Somalia continue to deepen. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi assured his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on Sunday in Cairothat Egypt stands firmly behind "Somalia's unity and territorial integrity." On Wednesday, Cairo then followed up on an agreement from January 2025 and deployed 1,091 troops to Somalia's capital Mogadishu. The deployment of Egyptian forces to Somalia — the first such deployment in their decades-old bilateral history — marks a significant shift. Until now Egypt had only sent military equipment as part of a joint security deal with Mogadishu from August 2024. The Egyptian soldiers will be part of the African Union-led peacekeeping force, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). The international mission — which first operated under the name African Union Transition Mission in Somalia — has been in place since April 1, 2022. Its mission is to train and advise the Somali army and police as Somalia has been fighting for stability since the collapse of its central government in 1991. Clan infighting and above all, the extremist group al-Shabab, have caused problems. "I would say there is a geopolitical race for influence in this area," Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa project director at the think tank International Crisis Group, told DW. "Cairo wants to make sure that weak states are strengthened and they don't become a playground for external actors trying to become geopolitical powers along the Red Sea," he said. Somalia, part of the Horn of Africa region, lies at several key junctions: It is located along the Indian Ocean with access to the Red Sea via the Gulf of Aden, the key route to the Suez Canal. It is opposite Yemen and shares a long border with Ethiopia.Egypt is keen on strengthening ties with Somalia, albeit for its own strategic objectivesImage: Egyptian President Office/SIPA/picture alliance Egyptian-Ethiopian tension Somalia's political fragility is further compounded by debate about the breakaway region of Somaliland in the country's northwest. While Somaliland proclaimed independence as the "Republic of Somaliland" in May 1991, it has remained officially unrecognized by the international community for more than three decades.That has recently changed. In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding granting landlocked Ethiopia access to the Red Sea and thus to international shipping routes in exchange for Ethiopia moving toward possible recognition of Somaliland. This deal was later renegotiated, following widespread regional condemnation. "Cairo still remains very worried about Ethiopia's aim to establish a military presence on the Red Sea," Fabiani explained. In December 2025, Israel became the first United Nations member state to formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state, a decision Somalia, Egypt and many other countries condemned as a violation of Somalia's territorial integrity. This recognition soured ties between Egypt and Israel. Relations have deteriorated over the war in Gaza following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. For Israel, ties to Somaliland could prove helpful in case fighting with the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen — which lies less than 100 miles (160 kilometers) across the Gulf of Aden — flares up again. The Houthi group has frequently attacked Israel and international shipping in the Red Sea in what it has said is its bid to support Hamas in Gaza. For Egypt, Israel's new footprint in the Horn of Africa is an additional concern alongside Ethiopia's ambition to secure access to the Red Sea, Crisis Group's Fabiani said. Meanwhile, other countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are also keen on increasing their strategic influence across the Horn of Africa. Furthermore the war in neighboring Sudan, as well as the political instability in Libya and the friction between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen's secessionist ambitions, drive instability in the region. Egypt and Ethiopia are yet to clinch a deal over water availability after years of strifeImage: Office of the Prime Minister-Ethiopia Water security While all of this is on Cairo's regional radar, its second concern revolves around water security via the Nile River. Egypt, a downstream country of the Nile River, has been critical of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, since Ethiopia began constructing the roughly $5 billion (€4.2 billion) dam in April 2011. The dam was inaugurated in September 2025. "Egypt heavily depends on Nile River water as a fresh water source but there are still no binding agreements that would provide Egypt with guarantees about its access to water," Timothy Kaldas, deputy director of the Washington-based Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told DW. "For Cairo, this remains a national security interest," he said. Even though Somalia is not directly affected by the GERD water dispute, years of political strife between Egypt and Ethiopia have further aligned Somalia and Egypt in their aim to form a regional counterweight to Addis Ababa.Somalia's government wants more international support for the fight against the extremist al-Shabab groupImage: Abuukar Mohamed Muhidin/Anadolu/picture alliance Somali interests Somalia continues to be more focused on domestic issues. For Mogadishu, the benefit of having Egyptian troops in the country isn't necessarily about Red Sea security or Ethiopian expansionism, Fabiani says. "They do agree with Cairo on these points but their main priority is to strengthen control over Somali territory and to make sure that there is sufficient international backing for the recognition of the Somali federal government as the only authority over Somalia," he told DW. In his view, by having Egyptian troops as part of AUSSOM, Somalia obtains international recognition of its authority as well as international support for its fight against al-Shabab.Somaliland: Somalia's breakaway 'nation'To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video DW's Philipp Sandner contributed to this article.