What oil hitting $70 a barrel would signal about Iran and U . S . tensions

morningstar.com · Feb 18, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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By Joy Wiltermuth Any moves by the U.S. to destroy Iranian oil infrastructure appear unlikely because of the Trump administration's focus on bringing energy prices down, says strategist Traders are watching oil prices climb after the U.S. said it was keeping all military options with Iran on the table. Oil prices pushed sharply higher Wednesday after the U.S. said the use of military force against Iran remained an option following a lack of a breakthrough in talks over Tehran's disputed nuclear program. U.S. crude futures (CL00) (CLJ26) rose more than 4.5%, or $2.79, settling at $65.05 a barrel, the biggest daily jump since Oct. 23, for the most-active contract, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That put West Texas Intermediate crude close to its highest level of 2026, as well as in the upper end of the range in recent months when fears of another U.S. strike against Iran have been acute. Prices hitting $70 a barrel could signal a "breakout on fear" relating to a potential looming U.S. military action, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group. U.S. oil prices have been largely stuck in the same low- to mid-$60s price range for the past year, but they did surge briefly to about $74 a barrel in June after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran's nuclear program. Prices briefly topped $65 a barrel in late January after President Donald Trump said a "massive armada" was heading to the Middle East to help coax Iran into reaching a nuclear deal. A key concern has been that any military conflict could disrupt the flow of oil through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices eased Tuesday after U.S. officials said some progress had been made with Iran during nuclear talks in Geneva, but Vice President JD Vance then told Fox News that core U.S. demands were unmet. Vance said the U.S. would very much like "to resolve this though a conversation and a diplomatic negotiation, but the president has all options on the table." White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran still remain very far apart on some issues, but are expected to come back with more details in the next couple of weeks. Flynn at the Price Futures Group said traders on Wednesday were considering a report from Axios indicating that the U.S. military could be preparing for something more than just limited airstrikes. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have been a nagging worry across financial markets for months, with recent jitters pushing up the "risk premium" in the price of oil. "There's always some risk premium in the price of oil, just to state the obvious, because there's a very sizable share of global oil supply that comes from politically sensitive parts of the world," said Pavel Molchanov, investment strategy analyst at Raymond James, pointing to Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia as examples. Molchanov's team views WTI at $55 to $60 a barrel as fair value based on physical supply and demand, with prices at nearly $65 a barrel reflecting increased uncertainty around Iran and potential new U.S. military strikes against Tehran. Still, Molchanov thinks oil prices would quickly come back down if the U.S. finds a diplomatic solution with Tehran or there's a fresh military action that's limited in scope. "It's highly unlikely the U.S. would try to destroy Iranian oil infrastructure because the Trump administration has talked about bringing energy prices down," Molchanov said. "That's something they prioritized in their agenda, and objectively, if they were to destroy Iranian oil infrastructure, that would significantly raise the price of oil for a considerable period of time." -Robert Schroeder and Abhirami Shrinivas contributed -Joy Wiltermuth This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (END) Dow Jones Newswires 02-18-26 1535ET Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. The articles, information, and content displayed on this webpage may include materials prepared and provided by third parties. Such third-party content is offered for informational purposes only and is not endorsed, reviewed, or verified by Morningstar. Morningstar makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or reliability of any third-party content displayed on this site. 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