Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup # 680

wattsupwiththat.com · Feb 23, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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The Week That Was: 2026-02-21 (February 21, 2026)Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)The Science and Environmental Policy Project Quote of the Week: “[Scientists] have learned to respect nothing but evidence, and to believe that their highest duty lies in submitting to it however it may jar against their inclinations.” — Thomas Henry Huxley, Evidence as to Man’s Place in Nature (1863) Number of the Week: 52 ultra-large THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Scope: This TWTW begins a discussion of additional physical evidence that 21st century warming was largely natural, with little human influence. TWTW discusses a newly published paper on forecasting solar flares and its importance for modern civilization. Also discussed is a post by Andy May on the importance of the influence of maximum and minimum solar activity on civilizations since about 5700 BC. TWTW presents the summary of EPA’s formal recission of the Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding and David Wojick’s view that the press release announcing the recission provided elegant arguments for doing so. TWTW concludes with Roger Pielke, Jr.’s efforts to discover a rationale for the EPA ignoring water vapor in its 2009 Endangerment Finding. ********************* Sunshine a Pollutant? In 2009 the EPA published its Endangerment Finding declaring that carbon dioxide and many other greenhouse gases are pollutants because they may cause global warming that may be dangerous. Through mental gymnastics the EPA excluded water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas. EPA’s mental gymnastics will be discussed below. The January 24, 2026, TWTW discussed NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project started in 1997 at Langley Research Center in Virginia. From its website: “Climate is controlled by the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the amount of infrared energy emitted to space. These quantities–together with their difference–define Earth’s radiation budget (ERB). The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations of ERB and clouds. It uses measurements from CERES instruments flying on several satellites along with data from many other instruments to produce a comprehensive set of ERB data products for climate, weather, and applied science research. [Boldface added] The goals of the CERES project are to: Produce a long-term, integrated global climate data record for detecting decadal changes in the Earth’s radiation budget from the surface to the top-of-atmosphere. Enable improved understanding of how Earth’s radiation budget varies in time and space and the role that clouds and other atmospheric properties play. Support climate model evaluation and improvement through model-observation intercomparisons.” “CERES is the only project worldwide whose prime objective is to produce global climate data records of ERB from instruments designed to observe the ERB.” At a science team meeting in May 2023, researcher Norman Loeb gave a presentation comparing the decade of 2000-2010 with the decade of 2013-2023 and asserting that: “For the entire period, the large positive ASR [Absorbed Solar Radiation by Earth’s surface] trend is primarily driven by reductions in low and middle clouds. The increase in OLR [Outgoing Longwave Radiation to space] (decrease in -OLR) is primarily due to increased emission from cloud-free regions. Low clouds exhibit far more variability across the different periods than any other cloud type.” Loeb’s conclusions are: “CERES observations show a doubling in Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) during the CERES period. The EEI trend is primarily associated with an increase in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) partially offset by an increase in OLR. [Boldface added] ASR and SST global and regional trends track one another. Large ASR trend primarily driven by reductions in low and middle clouds. Ocean mixed layer heating (and SST) variations primarily associated with ocean heat fluxes as opposed to surface heat fluxes. Despite substantial variations in ASR and OLR trends for “hiatus,” “transition to El Niño,” and “post-El Niño” periods, NET trends are nearly identical in all 3 periods (within 0.1 Wm-2 dec-1). Implies rate of increase in planetary heat uptake is relatively insensitive to internal climate variability during CERES.”[Boldface added] In short, 21st century warming was not caused by CO2 or the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), unless the latter caused a reduction in cloudiness. The findings that decreasing cloudiness is responsible for 21st century warming into 2023 were independently verified in a paper published in Remote Sensing of Environment by two Spanish and one Slovakian scientists. Their work applies to Europe. The abstract begins with: “The increase of surface solar radiation (SSR) observed during the last decades in Europe has raised concerns for its implications for the climate system. Here, we evaluate the past and projected SSR trends in Europe from 1994 to 2054 based on a comprehensive set of ground site observations, five historical gridded datasets and a remarkable ensemble of 30 CMIP6 climate models with projections in four different forcing scenarios. Together, they provide a seamless unprecedented characterization of the SSR trend in Europe across time and space.” The highlights include that changes in aerosols account for about 20% of the increase in surface solar radiation and changes in clouds about 80%. These studies based on physical evidence contradict the global climate models which assume, without strong physical evidence, that carbon dioxide is the primary driver of Earth’s temperature increases. See link under Science: Is the Sun Rising? For the January 24 TWTW see https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2026/TWTW%201-24-2026.pdf ********************* Changing Sun: The Sun is the most important determinant of Earth’s climate. The UN IPCC and the global climate modelers have taken the position that the Sun is very stable. The CERES-Science group of individual solar scientists (not to be confused with the NASA’s CERES project discussed above) announced a breakthrough in forecasting solar eruptions. This method was validated by correct forecasts of solar eruptions on the side of the sun not visible from Earth. Recall that the sun does rotate, but as a ball of gas and plasma the equator rotates faster than the polar regions. The equator rotates about every 24-25 days while the polar regions about every 30 35 days.). Consequently, astronomers cannot observe parts of the sun for several weeks. Satellites such as the Parker Solar Probe (launched in 2018) orbit the sun in a highly elliptical orbit and took about 88 days to complete its first orbit, which now takes about 150 days. The probe is sending particularly useful data on magnetic field reversals (switchbacks), plasma waves, other information associated with solar activity including the solar wind. However, the probe transmits data intermittently, during the cooler positions of its orbit, thus it does not provide astronomers on Earth with constant observations of solar flares. The press release of the CERES-Science team provided valuable information why forecasting solar flares is important for those on Earth. It begins with: A team of scientists from around the world has created the first system that can predict when and where extremely powerful solar storms, called superflares, are most likely to happen. These storms can disrupt power grids, communications, and satellites, and even pose dangers to astronauts in space. Instead of trying to predict the exact moment a solar storm will erupt (which is nearly impossible), this new approach identifies extended windows of time—ranging from several months to a year—when the Sun is more likely to produce these extreme events. The method also pinpoints which regions of the Sun are most at risk. The research has been published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics. How the Forecasting System Works The scientists analyzed nearly 50 years of data (1975–2025) from satellites that monitor the Sun’s X-ray emissions. They discovered two key patterns: 1. They identified specific zones on the Sun where magnetic energy builds up over time, making those areas more likely to produce powerful eruptions. 2. They found a rhythmic pattern in solar activity based on two natural cycles: a 1.7-year cycle and a 7-year cycle. When these cycles line up in certain ways, the risk of superflares increases significantly. Using advanced mathematical techniques and machine learning, the team combined these patterns to forecast high-risk time periods and locations on the Sun. For the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25), their model predicts two main danger windows: • Mid-2025 through mid-2026 (focused on the Sun’s southern hemisphere, between 5°S–25°S latitude) • Early-to-mid 2027 (focused on the Sun’s northern hemisphere, between 10°N–30°N latitude) Real-World Implications Lead researcher Dr. Victor M. Velasco Herrera, from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, explained: ‘Traditional solar forecasting struggles with these extreme events because they happen so quickly and unpredictably. Our method gives space weather operators and satellite managers one to two years of advance warning about when conditions are most dangerous. This critical lead time allows them to prepare and protect communications systems, power grids, and astronaut safety.’ Dr. Velasco Herrera also noted the relevance for space missions: ‘NASA is right to postpone the Artemis II mission to the Moon until March, but given how active the Sun is right now, our forecasts suggest that delaying the launch until the end of 2026 may be a much safer decision.’” The press release concludes with: “Why This Matters Solar superflares are the most powerful eruptions the Sun can produce. A direct hit from one of these storms could cause widespread power outages, dama