Week Ahead for FX , Bonds : U . S .- Iran Tensions , U . S . Data in Focus

marketscreener.com · Feb 23, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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By Dow Jones Newswires staff Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Feb. 23. Growing tensions between the U.S. and Iran will continue to be a major focus for investors in the week, as will be the impact of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Trump's global tariffs. However, U.S. economic data will continue to be watched as investors try to gauge the timing of the next interest rate cut. U.S. President Trump's State of the Union address Tuesday will also capture attention. Inflation data and sentiment surveys will take center stage in Europe. In Asia, markets will reopen after the Lunar New Year holidays, with a flurry of data releases and central-bank decisions in South Korea and Thailand. U.S. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the implications of the Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Trump's global tariffs on the dollar and U.S. Treasurys will be a major focus for investors. Still, investors will continue to eye U.S. economic data amid uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve will next cut interest rates. Recent Fed minutes showed little appetite to cut rates, with several policymakers even open to potentially raising interest rates if inflation remained elevated. Data also showed the Federal Reserve's preferred PCE measure of inflation unexpectedly accelerated in December, while jobs growth was strong in January. However, U.S. economic growth also slowed more than expected to a 1.4% seasonally and-inflation-adjusted annual rate in the final quarter of 2025. U.S. money markets showed investors are fully pricing in two 25 basis-point rate cuts this year, although a first reduction isn't priced until July, LSEG data showed. However, analysts at LBBW said the Fed minutes raised the risk of only one rate cut this year. More clues on the outlook for inflation will be provided when producer price inflation data for January are released on Friday. HSBC economists expect PPI likely rose 0.3% on month in January, with the annual rate moderating to 2.8% from 3.0% in December, they said in a note. The Conference Board consumer confidence measure for February is released on Tuesday, alongside the Case-Shiller home price index for December. The Treasury will auction two-year notes on Tuesday, five-year notes on Wednesday and seven-year notes on Thursday. Canada Canadian fourth-quarter gross domestic product data are due on Friday. Citi analysts expect that GDP will be "close to flat on the quarter or decline modestly," they said in a note. The Bank of Canada is broadly expected to continue to keep interest rates on hold in the coming months, although signs of a weakening economy could spark speculation about the possibility of a further rate reduction. Eurozone Germany's Ifo business climate index for February on Monday will kick off a week busy in data, rich in releases of business and consumer surveys. The French business survey for February is due on Tuesday, Germany's GfK consumer climate survey and France's consumer confidence surveys on Wednesday, Italian and eurozone business and consumer surveys on Thursday, and the European Central Bank's consumer expectations survey on Friday. Other data include Italy's CPI inflation data for January on Monday, final harmonized eurozone CPI data for January on Wednesday and eurozone money supply on Thursday. Flash-estimate French, Spanish and German inflation data for February are due for release on Friday. Germany will release detailed fourth-quarter GDP data on Wednesday, while similar data for France are due on Friday. Italy will conduct its usual two end-of-month auctions on Tuesday and Thursday. Belgium will have an auction Monday, and Germany on Wednesday. U.K. The U.K. economic calendar is light in the coming week. Still, investors will continue to watch any data closely amid increasing prospects of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in March following recent weak jobs data. U.K. money markets currently price a 78% chance of a rate cut next month, LSEG data show. GfK's U.K. consumer confidence index for February is released Friday, while the Nationwide house price index for February is due during the week. U.K. politics will also be in focus as a special election is due in Gorton and Denton on Thursday, where a heavy loss for the ruling Labour Party could spark renewed concerns about a potential challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership. The U.K. is due to sell March 2033 gilts on Tuesday. Scandinavia Sweden and Norway will hold auctions on Wednesday. Hungary Hungary's central bank announces a decision on Tuesday, where it could deliver the first interest-rate cut since September 2024, particularly given recent weak inflation data. "This won't be a one-off move, and we anticipate further easing during this year," ING analysts said in a note. Japan Investors will look for clues on the timing of the next interest-rate hike by the Bank of Japan in a speech by BOJ policy board member Hajime Takata on Thursday. Tokyo consumer price data, considered a leading indicator of nationwide trends, could also provide hints on the BOJ's policy path. Consumer inflation excluding volatile fresh food prices is expected to have risen 1.7% on year in February, according to a poll by data provider Quick, compared with January's 2.0% increase. Japanese markets will be closed for a national holiday on Monday. On Thursday, the BOJ is scheduled to make outright purchases of four sectors of Japan's government bond market. These include tenors of more than 10 years and up to 25 years, as well as inflation-indexed bonds. The latter may draw bidding interest from investors seeking to hedge against still-high inflation in Japan. On Friday, the Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction 2.8 trillion yen of two-year sovereign notes. Given the tenor's sensitivity to BOJ rate-hike expectations, investors might not show much bidding interest in the auction. China Markets reopen on Tuesday in China after the Lunar New Year holiday, with equities action poised to catch up to a slew of announcements during the break. The central bank will also announce benchmark lending rates tied to the bulk of household and corporate loans. Economists expect both one and five-year loan prime rates to be kept at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, as policymakers continue to wait for the right time to deliver more economic support. The PBOC has been relying more on structural tools to support targeted sectors rather than cutting the LPR or the 7-day reverse repo rate, DBS's economics team said. DBS expects the central bank to resume broader easing toward the second half of the year. UOB's Ho Woei Chen continues to expect a rate cut at some point in the first quarter to help prop up a slowing economy, penciling in the timing for March after the National People's Congress--the key gathering where China's top leadership sets policy targets. Australia / New Zealand In Australia, traders will focus on January inflation data due Wednesday, which is expected to show some cooling. Still the annual inflation rate is likely to remain well above 3.0%, complicating the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has already indicated that inflation remains too high. Lower gasoline prices and travel costs are expected to offset higher electricity prices in January. Core inflation measures are also expected to ease slightly, confirming a downtrend and supporting the view among some economists that the RBA may not need to raise interest rates again. The RBA is unlikely to put much weight on the monthly data, given that it is a relatively new series. The next set of quarterly inflation data in late April will likely guide the central bank's next move. South Korea The Bank of Korea is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged on Thursday for a sixth straight meeting. Policymakers are also seen upgrading their 2026 growth forecast from 1.8%, reflecting stronger semiconductor exports amid a robust chip cycle. Rate-cut expectations have faded since January, when the bank dropped language pointing to possible easing while unanimously holding the benchmark rate at 2.50%. Thailand The Bank of Thailand is expected to stay on hold at its first meeting of the year, given stronger-than-expected fourth quarter growth, Citi Research analysts said. However, Citi still expects a dovish bias amid a likely modest export slowdown in 2026 that could spill over into capital spending and private consumption. The central bank cut its interest rate four times in 2025 to support growth as consumer prices fell and global uncertainties rose. Hong Kong Hong Kong is due to release revised fourth-quarter GDP data on Wednesday. Advanced data showed GDP rose 3.8% in real terms from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year growth to 3.5%. The city's economy has shown signs of strength as retail sales--a gauge of consumption--rebounded and a strong equities market lifted business and consumer sentiment. Hong Kong is also due to announce its budget Wednesday. India India will report third-quarter gross domestic product data on Friday, for its fiscal year ending March 31. The figures are expected to show how the economy has fared amid geopolitical and tariff uncertainty. ANZ Research's Dhiraj Nim believes it will be difficult to preempt how the GDP series will change under the new framework, with significant changes to the base year and input data. Notwithstanding the changes, domestic demand is expected to have supported growth during the October-December period, alongside construction growth and improved manufacturing momentum. India's high-frequency data continues to suggest resilient growth during the quarter, with real GDP growth likely to come in at about 8%, Citi Research economists said. Singapore (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires 02-22-26 1914ET