The world geopolitical fault lines , from Ukraine to the Arctic

geographical.co.uk · Feb 17, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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The Ukraine-Russia war remains one of the largest on the planet. Image: Shutterstock Unpack the geography of global instability – from contested borders to forced displacement in nations around the world By Victoria Heath For much of the past century, global conflict was dominated by imperial ambition. Major powers fought openly or by proxy to control territory, secure resources or assert strategic dominance. Smaller states were often battlegrounds for larger geopolitical rivalries. Today, the picture is more fragmented. The violence is less easily defined, the causes more entangled. Take Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has redrawn Europe’s security map and hardened military lines across the continent. In Sudan, civil conflict has spilled into neighbouring states, deepening instability across the Sahel. Along the Himalayan frontier, China, Pakistan and India continue to fortify one of the world’s most heavily militarised high-altitude borders. In Myanmar, the persecution of the Rohingya has produced one of the largest stateless populations on Earth. Enjoying this article? Check out our related reads… These crises differ in intensity and form. Some are active battlefields; others are slow-burning contests over territory, identity or access to resources. Yet each sits at a geographical pressure point — and each is driven by a complex mix of forces. The age-old struggle to secure oil, minerals or rare earth elements still shapes tensions in places such as the Middle East and Venezuela. Demographic pressures strain fragile regions from the Sahel to the Himalayan arc. Ethnic and sectarian divisions continue to fracture societies, as in Myanmar. Rarely is there a single cause; more often, several pressures converge at once. Taken together, these regions reveal less about isolated conflicts than about a shifting and more volatile global order. Local wars now ripple outward in ways they rarely did before, threatening supply chains, migration routes, energy markets and climate cooperation. Physical landscapes still shape political risk — but in a world of tighter interconnection, the stress fractures that begin in one corner of the map can rapidly become everyone’s concern. Here, we look at how these pressure points emerge and why each represents a distinct type of geopolitical stress. Ukraine and Western Sahara – territorial wars In February 2022, Russia launched the largest land invasion in Europe since the Second World War. Nearly four years on, the war in Ukraine has hardened into a grinding contest over territory, infrastructure and political survival. According to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, thousands of civilians have been killed or injured since the invasion began — a humanitarian catastrophe that Geographical has documented first-hand. Our reporting found that those already living with chronic illness are among the hardest hit. An alarming 81 per cent of households say they are struggling to afford essential medicines, particularly for heart disease, high blood pressure and pain management — a stark reminder that war’s toll extends far beyond the battlefield. That toll is also etched into the landscape itself. Trenches slice through farmland, disrupting harvests and hollowing out rural economies. Entire cities, including Mariupol and Bakhmut, have been reduced by sustained bombardment, with widespread destruction of housing, hospitals and energy infrastructure. At its core, this is a territorial war. Moscow has sought to consolidate control over annexed regions in the east and south, attempting to redraw borders by force — a move widely rejected by the international community, including the UN General Assembly. For Kyiv, the conflict is existential: a defence of sovereignty and internationally recognised boundaries. Geography has shaped the war’s trajectory. The open plains of eastern Ukraine favour artillery and armoured manoeuvre, while the Dnipro River acts as both barrier and supply route. Crimea’s position in the Black Sea remains strategically central, influencing maritime security and grain exports. Disruption to Ukrainian grain shipments in 2022 triggered global food price spikes, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation, underlining how a regional war can reverberate worldwide. Large-scale infrastructure damage in Ukraine. Image: Shutterstock Beyond the battlefield, the conflict has reshaped European security. Defence spending across NATO countries has increased significantly since 2022, with Finland and Sweden seeking membership in response to Russia’s invasion, as outlined by NATO. Energy markets have also been transformed, with Europe reducing reliance on Russian gas supplies, a shift analysed by the International Energy Agency. But it’s not just Ukraine that bears the brunt of territorial wars. Thousands of kilometres away, in Western Sahara, one of the world’s longest-running unresolved sovereignty disputes continues to shape lives and landscapes in quieter but no less consequential ways. Western Sahara, a sparsely populated territory along the Atlantic coast of North Africa, was administered by Spain until 1975. When Madrid withdrew, Morocco moved to annex the territory, prompting armed conflict with the Polisario Front, which seeks independence for the Sahrawi people. In its 1975 advisory opinion, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) concluded that while historical ties existed between tribes in the territory and Morocco, they did not amount to sovereignty, and that the principle of self-determination should apply. War continued until a UN-brokered ceasefire in 1991, which established the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and promised a vote on independence. More than three decades later, that referendum has yet to take place. The United Nations continues to list Western Sahara as a Non-Self-Governing Territory. Today, Morocco controls roughly 80 per cent of the territory, including major urban centres and the Bou Craa phosphate mine. The Polisario Front administers a smaller eastern strip beyond the 2,700km-long sand and stone barrier known as the Berm, widely described as one of the world’s longest military fortifications. Tensions resurfaced in November 2020 following clashes in the Guerguerat buffer zone, leading the Polisario Front to declare the 1991 ceasefire void. In 2020, the United States recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara as part of a diplomatic agreement normalising relations between Morocco and Israel. Like Ukraine, Western Sahara illustrates how territorial disputes frozen in the twentieth century continue to reverberate. Borders unresolved do not disappear; they harden into protracted geopolitical fault lines, where sovereignty, identity and control over land remain central to global politics. Arctic – climate-driven strategic competition For decades, the Arctic was protected by ice. That protection is rapidly disappearing. The region is warming nearly four times faster than the global average, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Satellite observations from the National Snow and Ice Data Center show a sustained decline in summer sea ice extent and thickness. What was once a frozen barrier is becoming seasonally navigable water. As ice melts in the Arctic, viable shipping routes become navigable. Image: Shutterstock As ice retreats, commercial and strategic interest intensifies. The Northern Sea Route along Russia’s coastline can shorten shipping times between Asia and Europe. Beneath Arctic waters, the US Geological Survey estimates there may be 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas. Even if extraction remains technically and environmentally difficult, the prospect alone raises stakes. As Geographical has explored in its analysis of the region’s future, the Arctic is no longer a remote periphery but an emerging arena where environmental transformation intersects with hard power. Melting sea ice is accelerating long-simmering sovereignty claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, as Arctic states map their continental shelves in an effort to extend jurisdiction over seabed resources. At the same time, maritime law is being tested by new shipping lanes that were once impassable, forcing governments to reconsider search-and-rescue responsibilities, environmental protections and military presence. Our reporting also examined the human dimension of this transformation. Indigenous communities, from Greenland to northern Canada and Siberia, face a double-edged reality: greater economic opportunity through shipping, mining and hydrocarbons, but heightened risks to fragile ecosystems that underpin traditional livelihoods. The thawing of permafrost, coastal erosion and shifting wildlife patterns are not abstract projections — they are lived changes, altering settlement patterns and food security in real time. Ultimately, the Arctic represents a distinct type of geopolitical stress. There are no trenches or active battlefields. Instead, the pressure builds gradually as melting ice opens routes, exposes resources and redraws the strategic map. The landscape itself is changing — and with it, the balance of power — illustrating how climate change can become a catalyst for strategic competition long before a shot is fired. Sahel – state fragmentation Stretching from the Atlantic coast of Senegal to the Red Sea, the Sahel is a vast ecological transition zone — and increasingly, a geopolitical one. Over the past decade, it has become one of the world’s fastest-deteriorating security environments. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have all experienced military coups since 2020, displacing elected governments and reshaping alliances. Armed Islamist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State operate across borders that are expansive, remote and difficult to police. According to the Global Terrorism Index, the