Sir John Curtice : Green win means future of British politics is more uncertain than ever

bbc.co.uk · Feb 27, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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Labour, who had not hitherto lost an election in the area since 1931, fell into third place. The party's 25.4% of the vote represented a near halving of their 50.8% of the vote in 2024 and the 13th biggest ever fall in the party's support in a by-election. Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost their deposit with just 1.9% of the vote, their worst ever by-election result.Apart from the exceptional circumstances of the Rochdale by-election in 2024, when Labour disowned their candidate, leaving George Galloway to defeat a second-placed independent candidate, it is the first time that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have been one of the top two parties in a by-election contest.With the two parties both running at 20% or less in the polls, the Conservative-Labour duopoly that has long dominated post-war British politics has never looked weaker. The Conservatives are struggling to fend off the challenge from Reform, and now, at the other end of the spectrum, Labour's traditional position of the principal party of the left of British politics is evidently under threat from the Greens.Doubtless the result will raise fresh questions in Labour MPs minds as to whether Sir Keir Starmer should remain prime minister. Yet it would be a mistake to believe the result in Gorton and Denton simply reflects disappointment with the leadership he and his government have provided since the 2024 election.Rather the by-election confirmed the message of the 2024 election that two of the key foundations of Labour's traditional electoral coalition have crumbled away.Labour could once be assured in Gorton and Denton of the support of, first, less well-off working class voters and, second, those from a minority background, both of which are especially numerous in the constituency and both of which were until recently bastions of support for Labour across the country as a whole.However, the last remnants of Labour's relative strength among working class voters across Britain disappeared at the 2019 general election - and they failed to return in 2024. Now it is Reform that is especially successful at appealing to such voters. And according to two polls that correctly anticipated the close three-way battle that emerged from the ballot boxes, Nigel Farage's party led the field in the predominantly white working class Denton half of the constituency.Meanwhile, Labour lost ground heavily in 2024 in seats with substantial Muslim-identifying populations, largely as a result of Labour's initial stance at least on Israel's actions in Gaza. The Greens were often among the apparent beneficiaries. Indeed, in Gorton and Denton itself Labour's vote fell at the last election by 16 points.Now, assisted by the decision of George Galloway's Workers Party not to contest a seat where it won 10% of the vote in the general election, the Greens were able to forge ahead among the many Muslim voters in the Gorton half of the constituency. That, together with the party's strength among younger voters, provided the basis of the party's success.After winning narrowly in Runcorn last year, this time around Reform tasted the bitter wine of narrow defeat. This was, in truth, never going to be an easy contest for the party to win. Its strong antipathy to immigration and its scepticism about diversity policies helps ensure that it garners relatively little support among ethnic minority voters. The appeal its stance does have for some white working class voters in the constituency was insufficient to counteract that disadvantage. With nearly 29% of the vote, the 15 point increase in the party's support was well down on the 21 point increase the party registered in Runcorn, where, as well as having a much smaller minority community, there was also a rather larger Conservative vote that the party could potentially squeeze.The result in Gorton and Denton certainly illustrates some of the limits of Reform's appeal. But while the party's lead over Labour in the opinion polls has narrowed a little in recent weeks, it would be wrong to interpret the result as evidence that the party's prospects have now waned significantly. And now all eyes will be on whether or not the Greens' success in Gorton and Denton gives them a boost in the national polls just weeks before the 7 May devolved and local elections.