‘Like it’s 2024 again’: Trump takes centre stage in 2026 midterm elections

Al Jazeera · Feb 27, 2026 · Collected from RSS

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'Like it's 2024 again': Inside Trump's midterm election strategyWith control of the US Congress in the balance, officials say President Donald Trump plans to campaign as if he were 'on the ballot'.President Donald Trump dances at a rally in Clive, Iowa, on January 27 [Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo]President Donald Trump dances at a rally in Clive, Iowa, on January 27 [Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo]Published On 27 Feb 2026It was a chilly January afternoon in Iowa, and crowds of supporters ringed the stump-speech stage, festooned in red, white and blue.The scene could have easily been part of United States President Donald Trump's bid for re-election two years ago.But last month, he hit the campaign trail yet again with a different mission: winning the midterm elections for the Republican Party."I'm here because we're starting the campaign to win the midterms," Trump told the crowd. "We've got to win the midterms."It is not uncommon for sitting presidents to support their party in the midterm races, even though they themselves are not on the ballot. But as the 2026 midterm primaries approach in March, the Trump administration has made it clear one politician should be centre stage: Trump himself.Sources close to the White House have indicated that the president is pursuing an aggressive campaign strategy, one that could include near-weekly public rallies."He's going to campaign like it's 2024 again," Susie Wiles, his chief of staff and former campaign manager, told The Mom View talk show in December.Already, Trump visited two critical swing states, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, in December, and he has continued to hold public events in the weeks since, touting his economic record in Iowa and Michigan.But the strategy comes with risks. Midterms often bring stinging losses for the sitting president's party, and Democrats are hoping to leverage Trump's wilting poll numbers to chip away at the Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress."The Democratic Party most likely will frame this midterm election as a national referendum on President Trump," said Liberty University law professor Tory L Lucas.“The more President Trump plays into that narrative and places himself at the centre of the midterms, the more likely the Republican Party will rise or fall based on his personality and popularity."Trump touts his economic agenda on stage at a campaign-style rally in Clive, Iowa, on January 27 [Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo]Trump touts his economic agenda on stage at a campaign-style rally in Clive, Iowa, on January 27 [Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo]The midterm cursePart of the rationale behind Trump's plans for heavy campaigning stems from fears of the so-called "midterm curse".That refers to the idea that a sitting president's party is doomed to lose seats in Congress during the midterm elections.The pattern holds true even with popular presidents, regardless of party. Lucas pointed out that, since World War II, 18 of the 20 midterm elections have caused the sitting president to shed seats in the House of Representatives.The two exceptions occurred under Democrat Bill Clinton in 1998 and Republican George W Bush in 2002."The president’s party tends to lose House seats in 90 percent of midterm elections in the modern era," Lucas told Al Jazeera.But rather than receding from the spotlight, Lucas indicated that Trump is leaning into his central role in the midterms as a way to buck the trend.“By nationalising this race, President Trump is trying to defy the structural gravity that has pulled down predecessors from Franklin D Roosevelt to Barack Obama," he said.Trump and his allies have acknowledged their steep odds, gesturing in their remarks to the midterm curse. The president even suggested the slump could be linked to voters' mental health."Sitting presidents don't seem to do well in the midterms. I guess, over a 50-year period, they won twice. So I don't know what that is," Trump told reporters last month on Air Force One."That's something down deep. You'd have to ask really a psychiatrist about that."Donald Trump's supporters attend a campaign-style rally in Clive, Iowa, on January 27, ahead of the midterms [Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo]Donald Trump's supporters attend a campaign-style rally in Clive, Iowa, on January 27, ahead of the midterms [Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo]Sagging pollsAs the primaries draw closer, though, Trump’s ability to rebound will be put to the test.Part of the hurdle will be to recover from his sagging approval ratings, which reflect public backlash on issues that are key to his platform, such as immigration and the economy.For instance, a January poll from The Economist and the analytics firm YouGov found that 57 percent of US citizens disapproved of Trump’s job performance. Only 39 percent approved.A separate Reuters-Ipsos survey from the same month showed similar results, with 59 percent of respondents disapproving of Trump's tenure so far.Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University, believes those statistics should worry Republicans.“The signs don’t look favourable this year for Republicans,” she said. “I won’t predict the number of seats, but Republicans should be bracing based on those numbers that they’re going to sustain some losses.”Only four seats divide the Republican majority from the Democratic minority in the 435-member House of Representatives.In the Senate, Republican control is equally slim. Republicans hold 53 seats, compared to the 47 that caucus with the Democrats.The House, however, is particularly vulnerable: All 435 slots are up for grabs in November's midterms, whereas only a third of the Senate is.A woman films President Donald Trump on her phone as he speaks at a rally in Clive, Iowa [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]A woman films President Donald Trump on her phone as he speaks at a rally in Clive, Iowa [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]Nationalising the raceThe Republican Party has suffered losses since Trump's return to the presidency last year.In 2025's off-year races, Democrats notched a handful of victories, from Virginia to New Jersey. Wiles, a close adviser to Trump, has blamed the Republican defeats on Trump’s absence from the ballot."Typically, in the midterms, it’s not about who’s sitting in the White House. You localise the election, and you keep federal officials out of it," Wiles explained to The Mom View."We’re actually going to turn that on its head and put him on the ballot, because so many of those low-propensity voters are Trump voters."Her strategy is designed to harness the strong sense of loyalty Trump has engendered in the Republican Party.The YouGov poll found conservative voters overwhelmingly approved of his job, at a rate of 82 percent. A mid-January CBS News survey found an even higher approval rating — 90 percent — among US adults who identify as Republicans.“Since 2016, our surveys have all been off because we underestimate the Trump vote consistently," said political scientist Lonna Rae Atkeson.“Trump has definitely drawn more support from irregular voters, people who don't regularly go to the polls, during presidential elections."But she questioned whether Trump's endorsement would translate into increased support for down-ballot races."We haven't seen that carry over well to the midterms,” said Atkeson. “So it may not turn out well for him.”But putting Trump "on the ballot", as Wiles suggests, also risks shifting the focus of the midterm races away from local issues.Instead, experts like Gillespie believe that "nationalising" the midterm races could homogenise both down-ballot candidates and their policy platforms, as they seek to reflect national priorities, not local ones.“One manifestation of polarisation in American politics is that national issues increasingly supplant local ones,” Gillespie said. “As national politics seep into state and local races, it becomes harder for federal candidates to distinguish themselves from Washington.”Demonstrators protest outside Donald Trump's campaign-style rally in Clive, Iowa, in January [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]Demonstrators protest outside Donald Trump's campaign-style rally in Clive, Iowa, in January [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]A 'two-way street'Already, Trump has announced dozens of endorsements for Republicans campaigning for the Senate, the House and gubernatorial races.As lines become blurred between local and national politics, Republican hopefuls must determine to what degree they will associate with Trump.For some candidates in swing districts, proximity to the president could be viewed as a political liability.“I think it’s important to keep in mind that this is a two-way street,” said Gillespie."It is going to be up to the candidates themselves to determine the extent to which they align themselves with President Trump."Some Republican incumbents, like Representative Mike Lawler of New York, have already put some distance between themselves and the president after Trump posted a racist video on February 5.Others, like Republican Thomas Massie of Kentucky, have broken from Trump altogether, leading the president to endorse a primary challenger.Gillespie said that, in general, she is sceptical of the efficacy of Trump's backing.The majority of his endorsements tend to go to incumbents, who generally have more favourable odds than newcomers."What I’ve observed is, sometimes he has a tendency to endorse people who are already on a trajectory of success, and then he takes credit for it," Gillespie said.Atkeson too questioned whether Trump's sweeping plans for midterm rallies will actually help the candidates running."There's not a lot of evidence that his campaigning for people has a big effect. His coattails don’t seem incredibly large," said Atkeson.President Donald Trump makes a campaign stop at the Machine Shed restaurant in Urbandale, Iowa, on January 27 [Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]President Donald Trump makes a campaign stop at the Machine Shed restaurant in Urbandale, Iowa, on January 27