Lebanon on edge over potential US strike on Iran

DW News · Feb 26, 2026 · Collected from RSS

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As tensions between the US and Iran threaten to bring a major military conflict to the region, Lebanon's situation is particularly precarious. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has repeatedly said that his country will not interfere in foreign disputes. Earlier this week, he urged Hezbollah to not drag Lebanon into "another adventure." However, Naim Qassem, secretary-general of the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, already stated in January that any US attack on Iran would be considered an attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. "When the time comes for any stance, we will not hesitate," he said in a TV speech. In return, Israel, the main US-ally in the region, has warned Beirut that it would strike the country hard and target civilian infrastructure if Hezbollah were to wade into a potential US-Iran war. This was confirmed by two Lebanese officials this week. "Iran would expect Hezbollah to contribute if a US–Iran war scenario materializes, most plausibly by pressuring Israel," Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, or RUSI, told DW. However, in her view, Hezbollah is also navigating an increasingly complicated domestic environment. "Integrationist pressure by Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun, and the organization's stake in Lebanon's political future as a national actor, raise the costs of a major, open-ended war," Ozcelik said.Hezbollah's secretary-general Naim Qassem made it clear that he considers an attack on Iran as an attack on HezbollahImage: Fadel Itani/NurPhoto/picture alliance Hezbollah's fragmentation Hezbollah, whose military wing is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and other countries, started targeting Israel to support Hamas a day after the organization's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.In November 2024, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah ended 11 months of skirmishes and two months of full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel. During this period, Israel killed most of Hezbollah's leadership and destroyed large parts of the group's infrastructure and arms arsenal, as well as southern Lebanon and large parts of Beirut. Around 4,000 people were killed and the World Bank estimates reconstruction costs would amount to some $11 billion (€9.5bn). While the ceasefire stipulated the group's disarmament, Hezbollah has so far only given up its weapons south of the Litani River. The group refuses to disarm altogether, citing the need to be able to defend the country against ongoing Israeli strikes and Israel's military occupation of five points along the joint border. Israel on the other hand has repeatedly said that it will not stop targeting Hezbollah as long as it poses a threat. Hezbollah, as part of the Iran-led 'Axis of Resistance' — that also includes Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Iraqi paramilitary factions — considers the United States and Israel as enemies. This week, Lebanese Prime Minister Salam told the Lebanese news outlet Naharnet that the state continues its efforts to disarm the group beyond Phase 1, which refers to the area between the border and the Litani River. Disarming Hezbollah was an "irreversible sovereign choice," he said, However, he was more cautious on the implementation of Phase 2 — north of the Litani River, saying it "hinges on several factors, including the results of the conference in support of the Lebanese Army." A conference with participants from the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and France is slated for March 5, 2026, in Paris. The US-based Institute for the Study of War wrote in a report this week that a delay in disarming Hezbollah will make disarmament harder as the organization is in the meantime reconstituting its forces. Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, however, pointed out that Hezbollah still lacks the force it had before the war. "The group is much weaker and more fragmented, which makes decision-making also more fragmented," he said. Hezbollah's military wing opposes disarmament, but the political wing, which has a firm foothold in the country's parliament and its own social network of hospitals and social services, is more open to discuss disarmament, he noted. "The part of the group that is against disarmament could still attack but if I look at the reality on the ground, the Lebanese Shiite community (the political wing) is more important in the sense that they have more of a say in politics," Hage Ali added. Also RUSI's Ozcelik says some symbolic participation by Hezbollah would be a plausible outcome if tensions between US and Iran escalate. "This could be a limited, carefully calibrated set of attacks against Israeli targets designed to show solidarity and satisfy Tehran, while staying below a threshold that would trigger massive Israeli retaliation," she said, adding that the conflict's changing dynamics or direct Israeli action force a different response.Reconstruction of Lebanon depends on international support, however, investions contine to hinge on Hezbollah's disarmamentImage: Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu Agency/IMAGO 'I feel hopeless' There is little scope for hope for the Lebanese population, which has borne the brunt of economic and political crises since 2019, as well as the devastating Beirut port blast in August 2020 and the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in 2023 and 2024. People are far from optimistic about international reconstruction efforts which hinge on the disarmament of Hezbollah. "I feel hopeless," Nadim El Riz, a 35-year-old videographer who lives near Saida in southern Lebanon, told DW. "I expect a big and deadly war between Iran and its proxies on one side and the US and Israel on the other," he said. Also Raymond Khoury, a fitness trainer in Beirut, is anxious. "I am afraid that my country will become dragged into a war because Hezbollah is directly linked to Iran, and we would become involved if anything happens," the 38-year-old told DW. For now, Fatima Naim, a 27-year-old Beirut resident, says that she is living her day-to-day life in a state of denial. "I try not to think about what I should do in case of escalation because I cannot control the situation," she told DW. Until the situation changes, she prefers to "focus on my life in a 'lalaland mood' rather than live in constant fear and panic."Tensions high between Lebanon and Israel despite ceasefireTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Edited by: Jess Smee