Lapid doom campaing is aimed at Naftali Bennett , not Benjamin Netanyahu

jpost.com · Feb 17, 2026 · Collected from GDELT

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ByHERB KEINONFEBRUARY 17, 2026 20:45Updated: FEBRUARY 17, 2026 22:30Gevalt campaigns – campaigns built around a sense of impending doom – are as much a part of Israel’s elections as are the Bader-Ofer surplus vote agreements and the use of two or three letters to identify parties on ballot slips.Generally, however, these warnings of looming defeat followed by national catastrophe surface in the later stages of an election campaign – often on the actual eve of the vote itself – not before an election has even been called.Yet on Monday, at a Yesh Atid faction meeting in the Knesset, party leader Yair Lapid shrieked “Gevalt” uncharacteristically early.“The polls being published – along with very troubling in-depth studies that have not been published – indicate that it is no longer at all certain that the liberal bloc will win,” Lapid said. “If we don’t come to our senses – we will lose. If we continue working against one another – we will lose.”So what changed? Why move into full alarm mode so soon?First, because as Lapid himself acknowledged, the polls are not smiling on the “change bloc” – the collection of “anyone-but-Netanyahu” Jewish parties stretching from Right to Left: Yisrael Beytenu, Naftali Bennett’s new party, Yesh Atid, Gadi Eisenkot’s new party, and the Democrats. Poll after poll shows them struggling to cobble together 61 seats without Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am party. According to Channel 12 political reporter Amit Segal, only one poll in the last 60 has them reaching that threshold.Nor is the sun shining on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition. In survey after survey, his current coalition is garnering even fewer seats than the “change camp.”But Lapid’s own numbers are more troubling still – at least from his perspective. Averaging the recent surveys, he is polling at seven seats, while the Likud averages 27.That deserves a moment’s reflection.Two and a quarter years after Hamas’s October 7 massacre, Lapid has fallen from 24 seats – currently the second-largest party in the Knesset – to, according to the polls, just seven: a precipitous drop of roughly 70%.By contrast, Netanyahu – who was prime minister on October 7 – has seen his party’s projected strength decline by “only” about 15%.That alone would be reason enough for Lapid to cry gevalt.The inflection point came immediately after October 7, when Benny Gantz did what much of the country was demanding at the time: he joined a national emergency government with Netanyahu.Lapid stayed out. In the first poll after October 7 – published in Maariv on October 13 – Gantz’s Blue and White party soared to 41 seats, up 240% from the 12 it held in the Knesset, while Yesh Atid fell from 24 to 15.The message was unmistakable: the public wanted cooperation in a time of crisis. Gantz provided it and was rewarded handsomely in the polls. Lapid withheld it, and his numbers slid.That question – will you cooperate with Netanyahu – is once again front and center. During his “gevalt address” in the Knesset, Lapid framed the issue bluntly: “This is not the time for gambles. We need to go with the sure thing. When you vote for Yesh Atid, you can be 100% certain that we will not bend and will not enter another Netanyahu government.”In other words, he was telling voters: you have a wide selection in the “change camp” – choose the party you know will not join a government with Netanyahu.The subtext was unmistakable: this was aimed squarely at Bennett.Whether to form a unity government with Netanyahu is emerging — alongside the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) conscription issue — as one of the central questions of the campaign. And it is not merely theoretical. Neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the anti-Netanyahu bloc currently appears capable of reaching 61 seats on its own. A unity government may well be the only viable path to forming a coalition.Here, the different parties in the “change camp” diverge. Gantz has said he would join – provided National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party is excluded. Avigdor Liberman has ruled it out.Eisenkot has also rejected the idea, saying he would prefer a minority government backed by Abbas’s Ra’am party. Yair Golan has not only ruled it out but also expressed a willingness to form a government with the Arab parties. And Lapid has made clear he won’t join a government with Netanyahu.Bennett remains aloneBennett remains alone on the fence.Judging by the polls – his new party is significantly ahead of all the others in the “change camp” – that ambiguity does not appear to trouble voters. If anything, they may reward someone who is not declaring from the outset that he will refuse to sit with Netanyahu under any circumstances.Because what if the next election ends inconclusively, with neither bloc able to form a government? Does the country really want a return to the endless election cycle that beleaguered it with five elections over three and a half years from 2019 to 2022? Or would it prefer to see the Zionist parties unite – without the extremes on either side and without the haredi parties – to restore a measure of stability?Bennett, speaking on Tuesday to the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations meeting in Jerusalem, chose his words carefully.“Israel’s current leadership has divided us and continues to divide us even now, more than ever,” he said. “I will not allow that failed and divisive leadership to continue, nor will I be part of it. I intend to lead Israel into its next, stronger chapter.”The phrasing was deliberate. On the one hand, he signaled that he heard Lapid’s challenge and felt a need to make clear that he was not eager to join another Netanyahu government. On the other hand, he stopped short of ruling it out explicitly.As Segal pointed out, Bennett could have said simply: I will not sit with Netanyahu. That he did not says something. And the fact that he continues to lead all the change-bloc parties in the polls despite not making that declaration also says something.Lapid’s numbers tanked when he declined to show a willingness to form a unity government after October 7. That pattern appears to be repeating itself now, as his poll numbers remain low.In Israeli politics, refusing to sit with someone can be a statement of principle. It can also be an electoral risk. The polls, showing him far behind Bennett, suggest that voters may not reward rigidity. They may, instead, reward those who keep options open – and who signal a willingness to prevent yet another round of political paralysis.